SPC Sep 28, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening across parts of western/northern South Dakota and vicinity.

...20z Update...
Latest observations depict a corridor of stronger surface heating
and less prevalent cloud cover in the vicinity of northwestern South
Dakota, with surface temperatures noted to have warmed into the
low/mid 70s F downstream of developing convection near the WY/SD
border. Thus, the existing Level 1/Marginal risk was expanded
slightly to the northwest with this outlook update. See recently
issued MCD #2330 and the text below for additional information.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains generally on track, with only minor
adjustments made to the general thunder area based on latest
observational trends.

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 09/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026/

...Northern Plains...
Clouds and elevated thunderstorms remain prevalent late this morning
across parts of the Dakotas. A narrow window for strong to locally
severe thunderstorms may exist this afternoon/evening across parts
of western/northern SD and vicinity as convection develops
along/east of a weak surface trough. While lapse rates aloft should
remain modest, filtered daytime heating with surface temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 70s will probably be sufficient for robust
thunderstorm development. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow will extend across the northern Rockies/Plains today,
and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support updraft
organization. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to
initially form near the Black Hills by 20-22Z, and then spread
east-northeastward along/near a surface front through the evening.
The stronger cells may be capable of producing isolated hail and
gusty winds, before convection tends to become elevated with
eastward extent across northern SD/southern ND by late evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon as an
anomalously moist low-level airmass spreads northward ahead of a
mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move from CA/NV to the lower
CO River Valley through the period. Cloudiness and weak mid-level
lapse rates should limit instability through early afternoon, before
cloud cover gradually diminishes through early evening. A stronger
thunderstorm or two may occur parts of interior southern
CA/northwest AZ/southern NV, but the overall risk for severe
hail/wind appears too limited to include any probabilities for this
region at this time.


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SPC Sep 28, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and
evening across parts of western/northern South Dakota and vicinity.

...Northern Plains...
Clouds and elevated thunderstorms remain prevalent late this morning
across parts of the Dakotas. A narrow window for strong to locally
severe thunderstorms may exist this afternoon/evening across parts
of western/northern SD and vicinity as convection develops
along/east of a weak surface trough. While lapse rates aloft should
remain modest, filtered daytime heating with surface temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 70s will probably be sufficient for robust
thunderstorm development. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow will extend across the northern Rockies/Plains today,
and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support updraft
organization. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to
initially form near the Black Hills by 20-22Z, and then spread
east-northeastward along/near a surface front through the evening.
The stronger cells may be capable of producing isolated hail and
gusty winds, before convection tends to become elevated with
eastward extent across northern SD/southern ND by late evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon as an
anomalously moist low-level airmass spreads northward ahead of a
mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move from CA/NV to the lower
CO River Valley through the period. Cloudiness and weak mid-level
lapse rates should limit instability through early afternoon, before
cloud cover gradually diminishes through early evening. A stronger
thunderstorm or two may occur parts of interior southern
CA/northwest AZ/southern NV, but the overall risk for severe
hail/wind appears too limited to include any probabilities for this
region at this time.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 09/28/2026


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SPC Sep 28, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A broad mid/upper-level trough will move inland over California and
begin to close off over the lower Colorado River Valley, while a
weaker shortwave trough moves through the northern Rockies.
Large-scale flow around the Southwest US trough will draw deep
tropical moisture tied to Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys
northward into the Southwest. Downstream of this, a weaker mid-level
short-wave trough will move across the northern Rockies, mid-level
ridging will persist across the central US and a weakening
vertically stacked cyclone will begin to move northeast along the
southern New England coast.

At the surface, a weak trough will sharpen along the lee of the
northern Rockies ahead of a surface cold front that will move
southeast into the northern and central Dakotas overnight.

... Northern High Plains ...

Persistent southerly low-level flow will keep modest moisture over
the northern High Plains. Warm-advection showers and thunderstorms
along the low-level jet axis Monday morning, followed by thickening
mid/high-level clouds, will likely limit destabilization. Where
filtered sunshine is able to promote stronger surface heating, a
corridor of MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg (per mean HREF values) may
develop by late afternoon near the surface trough from northeast
Wyoming, western South Dakota, and southwest/south-central North
Dakota.

Isolated storms may form near the trough in the late afternoon or
early evening. Increasing mid-level flow ahead of the northern
Rockies short-wave trough will provide sufficient vertical shear for
a few thunderstorms capable of producing small to marginally severe
hail. Additionally, locally strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be
possible where the boundary layer becomes well mixed. However,
modest mid-level warming, weak large-scale ascent, and uncertainty
about whether intense storms form at all should keep any potential
severe window narrow in space and time.

More elevated storms are possible Monday night as the low-level jet
strengthens and the cold front moves into the northern and central
Dakotas. Buoyancy will weaken overnight and become increasingly
elevated, which should limit any severe wind threat after dark.

... Southwest ...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as an anomalously
moist airmass spreads north ahead of the western trough. Widespread
clouds and weak midlevel lapse rates should keep instability
generally weak and storm organization limited. An isolated wet
downburst is possible from heavier cores in any pockets of strong
heating, but the severe threat appears too low to warrant
unconditional probabilities.

... Northeast ...

Showers and occasional embedded thunder -- mainly near the coast --
may continue with the slowly weakening cyclone. Instability will be
weak, so severe thunderstorm potential is extremely low. However,
strong onshore gradient winds may cause isolated/sporadic damage.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 09/28/2026


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SPC Sep 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected tonight.

... Synopsis ...

Several different regimes of thunderstorms are ongoing this evening
across the CONUS and others may develop overnight.

The first of these is across portions of Texas and far southern
Oklahoma. Here, a moist airmass combined with strong diurnal heating
and weak surface convergence have supported scattered
strong-to-marginally severe thunderstorms. The strongest of these
storms will continue to pose a gusty wind threat for another couple
of hours before nocturnal cooling weakens low-level lapse rates and
decreases the greater wind potential.

A second area is in and near western portions of Cherry County,
Nebraska. Here, a couple of intense supercells have developed this
afternoon, with MRMS MESH suggesting hail perhaps in excess of 3" in
diameter at various times this afternoon. These nearly stationary
storms will persist for another couple of hours before weakening
with the loss of diurnal heating.

A third area is located across the central Rockies where large-scale
ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough embedded in the
southwest mid-level flow has combined with modest instability. These
thunderstorms should progress eastward during the evening hours.
Additional thunderstorms are likely to form ahead of these across
the northern Plains this evening and overnight as low-level warm-air
advection strengthens.

Elsewhere, a couple of ongoing thunderstorms will persist for a few
more hours across northern California and southern Oregon, and a
couple of lightning strikes cannot be ruled out overnight across
portions of southern and eastern New England as the intense, nearly
stationary east coast cyclone begins to slowly move northward toward
the southern New England coast.

..Marsh.. 09/28/2026


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SPC Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update cycle.
Isolated convective development is ongoing across portions of
central/north Texas as of 1945 UTC. While an isolated
strong/damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out with this activity
owing to steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, weak
lower tropospheric flow (as depicted by regional VWPs), limited
effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates should largely
temper overall convective intensity. Thus, the severe threat
continues to appear too low (less than 5%) to warrant the inclusion
of severe probabilities. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 09/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
An occluded cyclone will slowly weaken near the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, with lingering potential for elevated convection
and isolated lightning flashes to its northeast across southeast New
England. Farther west, weak ridging aloft will extend from the
southern High Plains toward MN. A few thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon/evening along a diffuse surface
boundary from north TX into southern OK. The strongest storms may
produce gusty outflow winds given steep low-level lapse rates with
afternoon mixing, but the severe threat appears too low to justify
adding severe-wind probabilities.

Slightly elevated convection is ongoing across central SD in a zone
of weak low-level frontogenesis, coincident with midlevel lapse
rates near 8 C/km and MUCAPE close to 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer
vertical shear is on the lower margins for storm organization, but
it appears this convection has already peaked. Additional elevated
thunderstorms are expected overnight from western SD into ND as
low-level warm advection increases in association with embedded
speed maxima downstream from a midlevel trough moving across CA/NV.
While an isolated hail report could occur overnight as far northeast
as southwest ND, the overall threat is low and when combined with
the questionable threat for diurnal convection across the central
High Plains, the MRGL area has been removed.


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SPC Sep 27, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE TSTM AREA IN NEW ENGLAND

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday.

...Synopsis...
An occluded cyclone will slowly weaken near the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, with lingering potential for elevated convection
and isolated lightning flashes to its northeast across southeast New
England. Farther west, weak ridging aloft will extend from the
southern High Plains toward MN. A few thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon/evening along a diffuse surface
boundary from north TX into southern OK. The strongest storms may
produce gusty outflow winds given steep low-level lapse rates with
afternoon mixing, but the severe threat appears too low to justify
adding severe-wind probabilities.

Slightly elevated convection is ongoing across central SD in a zone
of weak low-level frontogenesis, coincident with midlevel lapse
rates near 8 C/km and MUCAPE close to 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer
vertical shear is on the lower margins for storm organization, but
it appears this convection has already peaked. Additional elevated
thunderstorms are expected overnight from western SD into ND as
low-level warm advection increases in association with embedded
speed maxima downstream from a midlevel trough moving across CA/NV.
While an isolated hail report could occur overnight as far northeast
as southwest ND, the overall threat is low and when combined with
the questionable threat for diurnal convection across the central
High Plains, the MRGL area has been removed.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 09/27/2026


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SPC Sep 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains this evening into the
overnight.

... Synopsis ...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop this evening along a
surface trough across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, or along
a myriad of outflow boundaries from prior convection (as is the case
across southwest Oklahoma). The airmass ahead of these storms is
still quite warm, with 90F temperatures as far north as portions of
northwest Oklahoma. These warm surface temperatures are contributing
to steep low-level lapse rates conducive to downward momentum
transfer and isolated damaging thunderstorm outflows. Although the
most likely threat will be strong, gusty winds, the degree of
instability and strength of the cloud-layer vertical shear may
support a marginally severe hail threat with the strongest cores.

This activity should continue into the evening hours before
weakening low-level lapse rates and increasing surface-based
inhibition diminishes the overall severe threat.

..Marsh.. 09/27/2026


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SPC Sep 26, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains generally on track, with only a slight
southward expansion of the 5% wind probability area made with this
update based on latest environmental/observational trends. As of
1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite
imagery from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated
thunderstorm development ongoing across the higher terrain of
southwest Texas. Temperatures have generally warmed into the
upper-80s to mid-90s F across much of the region, with T-Td spreads
approaching 30 F in some parts of northwest Texas. Coupled with
steep low-level lapse rates, this may support isolated potential for
strong/damaging outflow wind gusts. with an instance of large hail
also possible (primarily farther north where deep-layer shear is
forecast to be marginally stronger). A lack of stronger
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, generally weak/modest low- to
mid-tropospheric flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected
to limit overall convective intensity and severe coverage, however.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 09/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally
eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by
tonight. Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this
morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is
expected this afternoon. Surface heating west of the clouds and
within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support
additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across
western OK into northwest TX. Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V
profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the
primary hazard late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be
on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA. Other isolated
lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the
southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a
low-level warm advection regime.


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SPC Sep 26, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally
eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by
tonight. Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this
morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is
expected this afternoon. Surface heating west of the clouds and
within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support
additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across
western OK into northwest TX. Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V
profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the
primary hazard late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be
on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA. Other isolated
lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the
southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a
low-level warm advection regime.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 09/26/2026


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SPC Sep 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.

...Western OK into northwest TX...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
central and southern High Plains moving northeast while a
smaller-scale upper jet moves across the TX Panhandle into OK. A
lee trough will extend southward through the High Plains and act to
maintain southerly low-level flow and a fetch of modest moisture
(surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ongoing this morning will likely dissipate with
additional storm activity expected to develop around 21-23 UTC.
Sufficiently steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon and
the erosion of MLCINH will likely result in widely scattered to
scattered storms developing from south-central KS through western OK
and parts of west/northwest TX. Adequately strong deep-layer shear
for storm organization will aid in a few of the stronger
thunderstorms to be capable of an isolated threat for large hail and
severe gusts (mainly 22z-02z).

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for severe weather are expected to
prevail.

..Smith/Bentley.. 09/26/2026


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SPC Sep 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains today.

... Synopsis ...

A series of three mid-level troughs will impact portions of the
CONUS today. The easternmost trough is an occluding low off the
Northeast coast that will bring gusty winds and a threat of isolated
thunderstorms to portions of southern New England within the
associated surface cyclone's warm conveyor belt. The westernmost
trough will lift northward from portions of the interior Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies into western Canada, resulting in
breezy conditions in its wake.

The third trough, and associated moisture plume, will lift northeast
across the central CONUS today. As it does, overnight/morning
convection will slowly move east across portions of Oklahoma and
Kansas before weakening during the late morning. In the wake of this
convection, strong diurnal heating should promote a well-mixed
boundary layer. Additionally, sufficient low-level convergence along
a residual surface trough stretching from northwest Texas into
central Kansas should yield at least scattered surface-based
thunderstorms. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong,
gusty thunderstorm outflows. Additionally, cloud-layer shear may be
sufficient to support an isolated large hail threat with the
strongest thunderstorm cores.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 09/26/2026


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SPC Sep 25, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the
forecast remains largely on track. Isolated thunderstorm development
is noted across portions of western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, but
cloud cover continues to generally temper surface heating ahead of
this activity. While a stronger gust or two may still be possible
(particularly where any developing convection can interact with
pockets of stronger heating/greater low-level lapse rates), the
overall severe risk continues to appear limited owing to the
marginal thermodynamic/kinematic environment.

While the overall environment is marginally more favorable farther
southwest across portions of southeast NM/West TX, relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and the displacement of better synoptic-scale
forcing for ascent farther to the northwest suggest that convection
will largely be tied to terrain influences. Coupled with a
relatively narrow zone of greater buoyancy (as depicted by 19z
objective analysis), this suggests that the overall severe risk
should remain limited.

See the discussion below for additional details.

..Chalmers/Dean.. 09/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/

...Synopsis...

An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this
morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is
spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly
develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early
day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is
possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger
heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise,
across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow,
more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a
moist boundary layer.

...Southeast NM/Southwest TX...

Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will
range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection
may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast
NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and
produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be
tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in
the wake of the early day MCS.

...Western OK...

While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating
could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the
ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few
hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of
low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A
strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of
low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear,
weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall
severe risk appears limited.


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SPC Sep 25, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...

An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this
morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is
spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly
develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early
day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is
possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger
heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise,
across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow,
more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a
moist boundary layer.

...Southeast NM/Southwest TX...

Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will
range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection
may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast
NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and
produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be
tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in
the wake of the early day MCS.

...Western OK...

While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating
could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the
ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few
hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of
low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A
strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of
low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear,
weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall
severe risk appears limited.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 09/25/2026


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SPC Sep 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Western OK...
An upper ridge axis will extend from TX to MN on Friday, with an
upper trough rotating eastward out of NM into the southern Plains.
Considerable coverage of thunderstorms has developed this evening
over NM, and is expected to spread northeastward overnight into west
TX and western OK. The associated high-clouds will slow/lessen
daytime heating. A few of the 00z CAM solutions indicate some
concern for a few strong storms across parts of western OK on Friday
afternoon. If strong heating can occur, these storms could pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts. Due to the approaching cloud cover,
will hold off on severe probabilities at this time and re-evaluate
in later outlooks.

...Central/Northeast NM...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present on Friday
over much of the southwest US, with widespread weak CAPE leading to
scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms across much of NM.
Forecast soundings over central/northeast NM show some risk of hail
in the stronger cells. However, parameters are rather weak for
severe-caliber hail so will forego an upgrade at this time.

..Hart/Weinman.. 09/25/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible late
this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern
High Plains.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update cycle
as the forecast remains on track. See the discussion below and MCD
#2327 for additional information.

..Chalmers/Wendt.. 09/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS...
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends
from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern
Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by
moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered
over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an
amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level
moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending
from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK
Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater
low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler
surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume.
This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm
temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE
from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level
convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a
result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be
weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm
mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are
possible with the strongest cells.

Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear
is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity
maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall
intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS...
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends
from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern
Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by
moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered
over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an
amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level
moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending
from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK
Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater
low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler
surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume.
This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm
temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE
from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level
convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a
result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be
weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm
mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are
possible with the strongest cells.

Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear
is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity
maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall
intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will reside
over the southern High Plains downstream of an upper trough over AZ
and northwest Mexico. A moisture plume is evident in early morning
surface observations (mid 60s to near 70 deg F) and GPS PW sensors
extending from the middle coast of TX northwestward into the eastern
part of the TX Panhandle. A mid to high-level cloud canopy,
extending from the sub-tropical Pacific through the eastern portion
of the larger-scale upper trough, will continue to overspread the
northwestern envelop of richer moisture over the southern High
Plains. Coincidentally with this mid to upper-level moisture and
episodic shower/thunderstorm activity, mid-level lapse rates will
remain modest and stronger boundary layer heating will likely be
partially thwarted, especially with westward extent. Nonetheless,
models show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon over
northwest TX into western OK. Southeasterly low-level flow veering
to southwesterly and strengthening to 25-30 kt at 500-mb will
support some updraft organization potential, and the possibility for
a couple of weak supercells to develop later this afternoon. The
notion for a couple of semi-organized cells is seemingly supported
by recent MPAS and REFS-based guidance from near the Caprock
northeastward through northwest OK and perhaps adjacent portions of
KS.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Southern Arizona/southern New Mexico to southern High Plains...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
prevail regionally, with a mid-level disturbance expected to spread
northeastward from northern Baja toward Arizona, with multiple other
convectively influenced perturbations spreading across New Mexico
and the southern High Plains. Pockets of moderate destabilization
could occur into peak heating across southeast Arizona/southern New
Mexico, as well as the southern High Plains including parts of the
Texas Panhandle and western portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few
stronger/locally severe storms with hail and/or gusty winds could
occur late this afternoon and early evening in these areas, but the
overall magnitude/likelihood of severe storms is currently expected
to remain relatively low.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PATS OF
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
parts of the western Dakotas.

...20Z Update...

The forecast for this afternoon remains largely on track. Isolated
damaging wind gusts and severe hail are possible late this afternoon
across portions of the Western Dakotas, where moisture pooling has
resulted in upper-50s to low-60s F dewpoints coincident with
clearing on visible satellite. Moderate deep-layer shear and modest
buoyancy will support organized storms and potentially transient
supercells. Given the potential for supercells, adequate buoyancy
and shear combinations, and cooler temperatures aloft, a CIG 1 area
was introduced to highlight the potential for isolated occurrences
of 2" hail, particularly with any stronger/more organized supercell
structures. See the previous discussion for more details.

..Halbert/Lyons.. 09/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026/

...Western Dakotas...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over far southeast MT, with a
lee trough extending southward from this low across the High Plains
into far West TX. A plume of moderate low-level moisture exists just
east of this troughing, with upper 50s dewpoints currently reaching
into southwest SD and mid 50s into western ND. This lee trough will
help facilitate the maintenance of this moisture plume as the
shortwave trough currently moving through WY and eastern MT
continues northeastward into the region today and tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop as convective
inhibition erodes in the vicinity of the lee trough and the Black
Hills this afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will
result in moderate deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt from
0-6 km) amid 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This shear may aid in some
storm organization potential, with the stronger thunderstorms
perhaps yielding an isolated risk for marginally severe hail/gusts
through early evening.

...Southern Appalachians...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus across
both the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and farther east over much of the TN
Valley. There is corridor between these regions from roughly
northwest GA across far eastern TN/far western NC into far western
VA where less low-level cloud cover is in place, replaced by more
vertically developed structures. Temperatures in this region range
from the upper 70s across northwest GA to the upper 60s/low 70s
across far western VA. There is also slightly greater low-level
moisture in this region (i.e. low 70s dewpoints), and these
thermodynamic conditions are supporting modest buoyancy. This
buoyancy explains the deeper clouds and recent lightning that has
been observed in eastern TN. Thunderstorm activity will likely
persist in this region throughout the day, supported by large-scale
ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough and mesoscale
convergence on an inverted surface trough that extends from southern
AL into the southern KY/VA border vicinity. Some increase in the
mid-level flow is anticipated as the shortwave moves through, but
modest buoyancy and a mostly cluster multicellular mode should keep
severe potential low. As such, removed the 5% wind probabilities
across the region.


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SPC Sep 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
parts of the western Dakotas.

...Western Dakotas...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over far southeast MT, with a
lee trough extending southward from this low across the High Plains
into far West TX. A plume of moderate low-level moisture exists just
east of this troughing, with upper 50s dewpoints currently reaching
into southwest SD and mid 50s into western ND. This lee trough will
help facilitate the maintenance of this moisture plume as the
shortwave trough currently moving through WY and eastern MT
continues northeastward into the region today and tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop as convective
inhibition erodes in the vicinity of the lee trough and the Black
Hills this afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will
result in moderate deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt from
0-6 km) amid 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This shear may aid in some
storm organization potential, with the stronger thunderstorms
perhaps yielding an isolated risk for marginally severe hail/gusts
through early evening.

...Southern Appalachians...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus across
both the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and farther east over much of the TN
Valley. There is corridor between these regions from roughly
northwest GA across far eastern TN/far western NC into far western
VA where less low-level cloud cover is in place, replaced by more
vertically developed structures. Temperatures in this region range
from the upper 70s across northwest GA to the upper 60s/low 70s
across far western VA. There is also slightly greater low-level
moisture in this region (i.e. low 70s dewpoints), and these
thermodynamic conditions are supporting modest buoyancy. This
buoyancy explains the deeper clouds and recent lightning that has
been observed in eastern TN. Thunderstorm activity will likely
persist in this region throughout the day, supported by large-scale
ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough and mesoscale
convergence on an inverted surface trough that extends from southern
AL into the southern KY/VA border vicinity. Some increase in the
mid-level flow is anticipated as the shortwave moves through, but
modest buoyancy and a mostly cluster multicellular mode should keep
severe potential low. As such, removed the 5% wind probabilities
across the region.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 09/23/2026


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