SPC Sep 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS...
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends
from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern
Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by
moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered
over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an
amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level
moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending
from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK
Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater
low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler
surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume.
This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm
temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE
from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level
convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a
result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be
weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm
mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are
possible with the strongest cells.

Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear
is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity
maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall
intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will reside
over the southern High Plains downstream of an upper trough over AZ
and northwest Mexico. A moisture plume is evident in early morning
surface observations (mid 60s to near 70 deg F) and GPS PW sensors
extending from the middle coast of TX northwestward into the eastern
part of the TX Panhandle. A mid to high-level cloud canopy,
extending from the sub-tropical Pacific through the eastern portion
of the larger-scale upper trough, will continue to overspread the
northwestern envelop of richer moisture over the southern High
Plains. Coincidentally with this mid to upper-level moisture and
episodic shower/thunderstorm activity, mid-level lapse rates will
remain modest and stronger boundary layer heating will likely be
partially thwarted, especially with westward extent. Nonetheless,
models show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon over
northwest TX into western OK. Southeasterly low-level flow veering
to southwesterly and strengthening to 25-30 kt at 500-mb will
support some updraft organization potential, and the possibility for
a couple of weak supercells to develop later this afternoon. The
notion for a couple of semi-organized cells is seemingly supported
by recent MPAS and REFS-based guidance from near the Caprock
northeastward through northwest OK and perhaps adjacent portions of
KS.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Southern Arizona/southern New Mexico to southern High Plains...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
prevail regionally, with a mid-level disturbance expected to spread
northeastward from northern Baja toward Arizona, with multiple other
convectively influenced perturbations spreading across New Mexico
and the southern High Plains. Pockets of moderate destabilization
could occur into peak heating across southeast Arizona/southern New
Mexico, as well as the southern High Plains including parts of the
Texas Panhandle and western portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. A few
stronger/locally severe storms with hail and/or gusty winds could
occur late this afternoon and early evening in these areas, but the
overall magnitude/likelihood of severe storms is currently expected
to remain relatively low.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PATS OF
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
parts of the western Dakotas.

...20Z Update...

The forecast for this afternoon remains largely on track. Isolated
damaging wind gusts and severe hail are possible late this afternoon
across portions of the Western Dakotas, where moisture pooling has
resulted in upper-50s to low-60s F dewpoints coincident with
clearing on visible satellite. Moderate deep-layer shear and modest
buoyancy will support organized storms and potentially transient
supercells. Given the potential for supercells, adequate buoyancy
and shear combinations, and cooler temperatures aloft, a CIG 1 area
was introduced to highlight the potential for isolated occurrences
of 2" hail, particularly with any stronger/more organized supercell
structures. See the previous discussion for more details.

..Halbert/Lyons.. 09/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026/

...Western Dakotas...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over far southeast MT, with a
lee trough extending southward from this low across the High Plains
into far West TX. A plume of moderate low-level moisture exists just
east of this troughing, with upper 50s dewpoints currently reaching
into southwest SD and mid 50s into western ND. This lee trough will
help facilitate the maintenance of this moisture plume as the
shortwave trough currently moving through WY and eastern MT
continues northeastward into the region today and tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop as convective
inhibition erodes in the vicinity of the lee trough and the Black
Hills this afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will
result in moderate deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt from
0-6 km) amid 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This shear may aid in some
storm organization potential, with the stronger thunderstorms
perhaps yielding an isolated risk for marginally severe hail/gusts
through early evening.

...Southern Appalachians...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus across
both the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and farther east over much of the TN
Valley. There is corridor between these regions from roughly
northwest GA across far eastern TN/far western NC into far western
VA where less low-level cloud cover is in place, replaced by more
vertically developed structures. Temperatures in this region range
from the upper 70s across northwest GA to the upper 60s/low 70s
across far western VA. There is also slightly greater low-level
moisture in this region (i.e. low 70s dewpoints), and these
thermodynamic conditions are supporting modest buoyancy. This
buoyancy explains the deeper clouds and recent lightning that has
been observed in eastern TN. Thunderstorm activity will likely
persist in this region throughout the day, supported by large-scale
ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough and mesoscale
convergence on an inverted surface trough that extends from southern
AL into the southern KY/VA border vicinity. Some increase in the
mid-level flow is anticipated as the shortwave moves through, but
modest buoyancy and a mostly cluster multicellular mode should keep
severe potential low. As such, removed the 5% wind probabilities
across the region.


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