SPC Apr 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from parts
of the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the
lower Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys. Tornadoes, large hail
and severe wind gusts are expected.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
Great Plains, with an associated mid-level jet streak moving through
the base of the trough into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front is advancing southeastward across far southeast Nebraska,
east-central Kansas and far northern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front,
multiple line segments are ongoing. These broken lines are embedded
with discrete to semi-discrete supercells. The storms are located
along an axis of moderate to strong instability, with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Over the top of this
moist and unstable airmass, flow is westerly around 50 knots. This
is creating moderate to strong deep-layer shear which will continue
to support supercells this evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km will be favorable for large hail. In addition,
the western edge of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will remain in
place over eastern Kansas. WSR-88D VWPs that are sampling the
low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a continued tornado threat. In
addition, a threat for wind damage will also continue through the
mid to late evening...see MCD 510.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Southwesterly mid-level flow is in place over much of the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located from
central Minnesota south-southwestward into the mid Missouri Valley.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the
front from far southeastern Minnesota into central Iowa and far
northwestern Missouri. Moderate instability is analyzed ahead of the
line, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
The thermodynamic environment will continue to be favorable for
isolated large hail. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot jet is analyzed
over east-central Iowa. As the low-level jet strengthens, tornadoes
will be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the
line continues to move eastward through the mid to late evening,
wind damage will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing
line segments.

..Broyles.. 04/24/2026


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SPC Apr 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0245 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening from the southern through central Plains and Minnesota into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley.
Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...
The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over
southern BC/AB and a northeastward moving trough over the western
Dakotas will lead to the formation of a deep closed low over
southern SK. An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken
across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves
across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK. Low-level moisture will spread
northward across IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the
northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer. Surface heating and the
degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into
MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs
structures (stronger low-level shear lingering across IA). Mixed
convective modes are expected along and ahead of the front this
afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon
through late evening from eastern KS into northern OK, near and just
northeast of a cold front/dryline triple point and weak secondary
cyclone. A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will progress
eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent in the
left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point near or
just north of the KS/OK border. An influx of mid 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective inhibition
across KS by mid afternoon.

Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid
afternoon, with storms expected to develop southward to near the
triple point. The large buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and
deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very large
hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms.
The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level
shear/hodograph curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there
will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern supercells
near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool
development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional
wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads
southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.

...OK dryline this evening...
Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this
afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of
surface heating/mixing along the dryline and residence time in the
dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep convection. If
storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large
hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat
with any sustained storm.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026


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SPC Apr 23, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail
and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight...
The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over
southern BC/AB and a northeastward moving trough over the western
Dakotas will lead to the formation of a deep closed low over
southern SK. An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken
across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves
across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK. Low-level moisture will spread
northward across IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the
northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer. Surface heating and the
degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into
MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs
structures (stronger low-level shear lingering across IA). Mixed
convective modes are expected along and ahead of the front this
afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon
through late evening from eastern KS into far northern OK, near and
just northeast of a cold front/dryline triple point and weak
secondary cyclone. A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will
progress eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent
in the left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point
near or just north of the KS/OK border. An influx of mid 60s
boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective
inhibition across KS by mid afternoon.

Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid
afternoon, with storms expected to develop southward to near the
triple point. The large buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and
deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very large
hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms.
The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level
shear/hodograph curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there
will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern supercells
near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool
development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional
wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads
southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.

...OK dryline this evening...
Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this
afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of
surface heating/mixing along the dryline and residence time in the
dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep convection. If
storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large
hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat
with any sustained storm.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 04/23/2026


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SPC Apr 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
across parts of the central and northern Plains this evening into
tonight.

...Central and Northern Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the northern Rockies,
with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Desert Southwest
into the northern Plains. At the surface, a north-to-south oriented
trough is present across the High Plains. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the trough from northwest
Nebraska into west-central South Dakota. Additional storms are
ongoing in northeastern Montana to the west of a surface low. As the
low-level jet strengthens across the region tonight, continued
thunderstorm development is expected. A hail and wind-damage threat
will be possible along and near an axis of weak instability from
west-central Nebraska into far southern North Dakota. A wind-damage
threat will also be possible with storms currently ongoing in
northeast Montana.

..Broyles.. 04/23/2026


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