SPC Sep 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern
Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and
evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions
of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and
evening.

...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
Recent surface analysis places the primary cold front from the St.
Lawrence Valley west-southwestward through Lower MI, northern IL,
and southern IA. The front then shifts more southwestward through
central KS through the central OK and northwest TX Panhandles into
far northeast NM. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms extends
from southwest KS and the eastern TX/OK Panhandles through the Lower
MO Valley and into the middle OH Valley. Much of this activity
precedes the cold front and is supported by either modest low-level
warm-air advection and/or convergence along
southward/southeastward-progressing outflows.

Strong heating is anticipated south of residual cloudiness and
lingering showers/thunderstorms, with temperatures well into the 90s
to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley,
and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. This
heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from
1000 J/kg across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to 2000-2500 J/kg across
the southern Plains. This increased buoyancy coupled with
convergence along the synoptic front (and any existing outflow
boundaries) and modest large-scale ascent should result in
thunderstorm activity persisting throughout the afternoon and
evening. Some increase in intensity is possible too, particularly
from north-central TX in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy will
be highest. The presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary
layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated
severe gusts in these areas. Buoyancy will be more limited farther
east, but vertical shear will be stronger, and some more organized
bowing segments are possible. Damaging gusts will be the primary
severe risk over this region as well.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain
amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible in this
environment, with isolated hail as the primary hazard. Increasing
low-level stability away from the terrain should keep the threat
relatively confined and short lived.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/10/2026


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SPC Sep 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern
Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and
evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions
of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys
Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH
Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending
into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV)
is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by
Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance
through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western
extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH
Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the
surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms
that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of
the OH Valley into the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...

To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and
thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon
with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s
from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will
remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with
dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable
air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg.

The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent
associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the
synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any
existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind
field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to
the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH
Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization
appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN
Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a
relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of
sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...

Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain
amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of
multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for
large hail.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026


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SPC Sep 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts will
remain possible through late evening from the upper Ohio Valley into
the southern Plains.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along and ahead of
a cold front from north-central PA into central OH within a moist
air mass with the 00Z Pittsburgh sounding indicating MLCAPE of
around 1000 J/kg. Moreover, the corresponding wind profile exhibited
relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear with effective SRH
of around 250 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear of around 40 kt. So,
while lapse rates and resultant instability are expected to weaken
with the loss of daytime heating, the kinematic environment will
remain supportive of transient supercell and bowing structures
capable of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado for the
next couple of hours.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...

A thunderstorm complex ongoing southeast of Kansas City this evening
is located to the north of the synoptic front that stretches from
central MO through far southeast KS and northwest OK into the TX
Panhandle. Some cold pool organization is present per KEAX base
velocity data, with recent reports of wind damage and wind gusts up
to 59 mph. The air mass ahead of the storms has been slightly
modified by convective outflow but still remains sufficiently
buoyant to sustain the ongoing storms with a continued risk for
isolated severe wind gusts through the remainder of the evening.

Over the southern Plains, widely scattered thunderstorms continue
this evening along and in the immediate wake of the front. The air
mass ahead of the front remains hot with a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer, which will remain supportive of locally severe wind gusts for
the next hour or two.

..Mead.. 09/10/2026


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SPC Sep 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
NEW YORK....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today.

...OH/PA/NY...
A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward
today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary
baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move
eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and
western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level
lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized
storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally
damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western
NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening.

...IN/IL/MO...
The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the
boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern
IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker,
with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few
storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts.

...TX/OK/KS...
Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a
risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass.

..Hart/Guyer.. 09/09/2026


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