SPC Feb 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Desert Southwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and
an associated trough to the west of Baja Calfornia. This
disturbance will meander slowly southeast reaching the Baja
California/Gulf of California vicinity by the end of the period.
Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (near -18 deg C at 500 mb)
and sufficient moisture will yield weak buoyancy later today across
southern AZ. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast
mainly for southeast AZ where weak ascent may yield a couple of
lightning flashes with deeper convection. Elsewhere across the
contiguous United States, quiescent conditions will prevail
precluding thunderstorms.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/07/2026


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SPC Feb 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...AZ/NM...
A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of
Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak
warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later
this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the
afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below
100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge
separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to
be below 10 percent.

In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast
AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500
J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of
the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift
should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the
degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more
aggressive spectrum.

..Grams.. 02/07/2026


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SPC Feb 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight.

...Discussion..
Pulse thunderstorms earlier this afternoon over the western
Transverse Ranges of southern CA appear to have recently diminished.
Lingering, isolated low-topped convection should decay rapidly after
sunset. Elsewhere across the CONUS, conditions will be too
dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through 12Z Saturday.

..Grams.. 02/07/2026


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SPC Feb 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Southern CA...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated
thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early
evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.

..Hart.. 02/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is
expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today,
ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of
the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low-
to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of
this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support
scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern
CA.

Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and
central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along
the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep
upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the
western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.


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