SPC May 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind
gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday
afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More
sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the
Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress
northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong,
cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On
the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water
vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle
disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features
are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday
afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the
region.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes
southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern
High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the
day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may
occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over
northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic.
Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and
any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains
into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley...

Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe)
are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK,
with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front
across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite
boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north
Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is
expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian
Basin into the Edwards Plateau region.

A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector
characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with
eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg.
Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast
from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML
plume.

The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent
(see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by
mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over
west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear
will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with
decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the
warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large
to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the
vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm
initiation.

By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal
across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a
forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central
TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday
morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry,
mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold
pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75
mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The
damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time
Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually
stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150
m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSSfKD

SPC May 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.

...Oklahoma and North Texas...

As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.

Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.

...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...

As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.

...Central High Plains...

A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.

...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...

Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

..Mead.. 05/10/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSSXHk

SPC May 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses
southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.

Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.

...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSSQRG

SPC May 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Plains...
A flat upper ridge will be present today over the southwest states
and southern Rockies, while stronger flow aloft extends from the
northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley and eastern states. The
cold front that triggered convection over OK on Friday has stalled
over north TX and will slowly return northward through the day
today. Despite relatively weak low-level winds, dewpoints will
climb through the 50s across western OK leading to an axis of
moderate CAPE by late afternoon. Strong heating along/behind a
diffuse dryline will likely lead to isolated thunderstorm
development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail.
Given the weak forcing aloft, storm coverage is likely to be rather
sparse through the evening. But those storms that can persist will
be in a progressively more moist and sheared environment that could
support the risk of a tornado or two.

Elsewhere farther north, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and hail from eastern WY/CO into western
NE/KS.

...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over parts of
LA/MS/AL. This activity will persist through the day and spread
eastward. Limited heating and rather weak shear profiles will limit
the overall severe threat. But nevertheless a few storms may
occasionally become intense - capable of gusty/damaging winds and
hail.

...Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic...
A large upper trough will track from Ontario into Quebec today,
while the associated cold front sweeps southeastward across the
lower Great Lakes region. Sufficient instability is forecast to
support a line of thunderstorms forming over Lakes Erie/Ontario and
spreading into parts of OH/PA/NY this evening. Gusty winds and
small hail are expected, with a few reports of severe wind/hail
possible.

A corridor of moderate surface heating will extend from central VA
into NJ today, helping to destabilize this region and lead to widely
scattered afternoon thunderstorms. CAM solutions suggest the storms
that form will struggle to organize/intensify, but there will be
sufficient CAPE/shear to support some risk of a damaging wind gust
or two through early evening.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/09/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSSDWk