SPC Nov 10, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle
to Upper Texas Coast tonight.

...TX Coast...
Recent surface analysis places an inverted trough just off the Lower
TX Coast. Warm-air advection near this trough is supporting an area
of showers and thunderstorms. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings show a deep
and moist boundary layer atop relatively cool mid-level temperatures
(around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb). Enhanced mid-level flow exists
above 700 mb as well, contributing to moderate shear within the
cloud bearing layer. These factors could support isolated updrafts
capable of marginally severe hail through the early afternoon.
Weakening warm-air advection should lead to weakening thunderstorm
coverage and intensity during the late afternoon/early evening.

The weak vorticity maximum currently over the TX South Plains will
drift southeastward today, interacting with this more moist and
buoyant airmass along the coast around 00Z. Ascent associated with
this wave coupled with modest warm-air advection will likely result
in increasing thunderstorm coverage after 00Z. Mid-level
temperatures will cool slightly as well, supporting an increase in
the elevated buoyancy across the region. Mid-level flow throughout
this layer will remain strong, with cloud-bearing layer shear over
50 kt. These environmental conditions appear supportive of
marginally severe hail within any of the more persistent updrafts.

...Elsewhere...
Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection
that will move quickly east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA
today in tandem with another mid-level shortwave trough, but very
weak instability will limit the severe threat with this activity.
Late afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within the moist
confluent flow over the central/southern FL Peninsula.

A few flashes are also possible near the center of the TX vorticity
maximum over central/north-central TX this afternoon/early evening.
Thunderstorm coverage in this region is currently expected to be
less than 10 percent.

..Mosier/Halbert-K.. 11/10/2026


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SPC Nov 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms may persist for much of the period across
coastal TX/LA as a weak mid-level shortwave trough evolves eastward
across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. With MUCAPE
forecast to generally remain less than 1000 J/kg amid modest lapse
rates aloft, any hail with stronger cells that develop over land
should remain sub-severe. Occasional lightning flashes may also
occur with low-topped convection that will move quickly
east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA today in tandem with
another mid-level shortwave trough, but very weak instability will
limit the severe threat with this activity.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/10/2026


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SPC Nov 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...

A progressive and amplifying polar branch of westerlies is forecast
over the northern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. Within that air
stream, a short-wave trough will move through the Northeast, while
an upstream system intensifies over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude system over TX is expected to
de-amplify while advancing into the lower MS Valley. At the surface,
a lee cyclone and attending trough initially over the High Plains
will shift east through the northern and central Plains into the
Midwest, in tandem with the previously mentioned upper-air system.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of that frontal system will support
the poleward advance of a partially modified continental-polar air
mass from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along the middle TX Coast
Tuesday morning, and from the middle TX Coast into southern LA
Tuesday night, within a zone of low-level warm advection and weak
instability preceding the midlevel wave. Along the Pacific Northwest
Coast, moist onshore flow coupled with a slight steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will yield weak instability and the potential
for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Over
south FL, slight cooling aloft will combine with a moist PBL to
yield MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg by afternoon when isolated
thunderstorms appear possible.

Elsewhere, isolated lightning strikes appear possible over northern
or central TX, northern New England, and perhaps the eastern Dakotas
Tuesday afternoon into evening. Lightning duration and coverage in
those areas appear too limited to warrant general thunderstorm/10%
probability contours.

..Mead.. 11/10/2026


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SPC Nov 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...

Within the southern fringe of a broader precipitation band preceding
a vigorous short-wave trough, embedded convective elements
sufficiently deep for lightning generation have recently moved onto
the OR coast. Modification of the 00Z UIL sounding for a slightly
warmer and more moist PBL farther to the south yields a narrow CAPE
profile extending upwards into the -10 to -20 C layer with MUCAPE of
a few hundred J/kg, which is consistent with the lightning
observations. A similar thermodynamic environment is expected to
spread inland this evening into tonight, supporting the continuation
of sporadic lightning occurrences. Turbulent downward mixing of
stronger flow aloft may yield a few strong wind gusts; however,
severe weather is not expected.

...Portions of Deep South Texas to the middle Texas Coast....

As of 00Z, the most vigorous convection was located offshore to the
southeast of Brownsville, within a zone of stronger surface-based
buoyancy. Farther north along the lower to middle TX Coast, a modest
low-level warm-advection regime is expected to persist overnight, in
which a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible amidst a
marginally unstable environment (per 00Z BRO/CRP soundings).

..Mead.. 11/10/2026


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