SPC Apr 19, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.

Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.

..Hart/Bunting.. 04/19/2026


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SPC Apr 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
from James Bay southward through the Great Lakes and TN Valley. The
upper trough will continue to move east and reach the Lower Great
Lakes and East Coast by daybreak Monday. In the low levels, a cold
front will push east of the Carolina coast by early afternoon.
Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the central
and eastern states in wake of the cold front. Weak instability will
yield isolated thunderstorms over parts of the south Florida,
eastern North Carolina, and weak elevated storms over south Texas.

..Smith/Thompson.. 04/19/2026


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SPC Apr 19, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the OH and
TN Valleys will move into the northeastern US today, with a weak
upper ridge across the Rockies. This pattern will favor high
pressure over the central and eastern states, stable conditions and
minimal thunderstorm activity. A cold front associated the eastern
trough will be well off the East Coast by midday, with drying
offshore flow. Minimal instability may yield isolated thunderstorms
over eastern Florida, or perhaps across the Rio Grande Valley where
elevated moisture and weak instability will remain atop the surface
cool layer. In any case, severe storms are not forecast.

..Jewell/Moore.. 04/19/2026


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SPC Apr 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY...AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe hail is possible in portions of central
Texas. Isolated damaging winds remain possible from the central
Appalachians into the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

...20Z Update...
Based on observational trends 15% wind probabilities were removed
from the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. Wind gusts along with weak,
shallow convection (with little lightning) have generally been in
the 30 kt range with isolated cases of low 40 kt gusts. Isolated
wind damage remains possible, but a more organized threat is not
expected given weak buoyancy downstream. Elsewhere, marginally
severe hail remains possible with isolated, elevated convection in
central Texas.

..Wendt.. 04/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026/

...Upper OH Valley...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing eastward across
western OH, associated with a band of widespread clouds and light
precipitation. Mostly clear skies are present ahead of the front,
where temperatures are warming through the 70s. This will lead to a
corridor of marginal afternoon instability and the potential for
scattered thunderstorm intensification along the front. Forecast
soundings show strong mid-level winds and steep low-level lapse
rates, supportive of strong downdrafts in any vigorous convection.
However, CAM guidance is consistent in showing very few
organized/strong storms through the day. Will maintain the SLGT
risk for the conditional risk of a few damaging wind events, but
with limited confidence.

...TX...
Isolated intense thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning in the
post-frontal regime across central TX. These storms have produced
hail and gusty winds for several hours. It appears likely that this
scenario will shift eastward and weaken early this afternoon as the
primary upper jet moves into AR and away from the region, but will
maintain the MRGL risk area for a few more hours and extend it into
parts of AR/LA.


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