SPC Feb 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/23/2026


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SPC Feb 23, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated
lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near
coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone,
will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In
the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in
coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in
the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward
shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026


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SPC Feb 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface low is beginning to deepen off the middle Atlantic coast
early this evening. Low-level warm advection will continue to focus
across the northern middle Atlantic into southern New England where
weak midlevel instability may prove adequate for lightning flashes
in the strongest snow bands.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes have been mostly confined to
offshore regions of the Pacific Northwest where marine influences
are contributing to a bit more buoyancy. Scattered weak convection
will continue this evening across western WA and a flash of
lightning can not be ruled out with this activity.

..Darrow.. 02/23/2026


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SPC Feb 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.


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