SPC Jun 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward from the
northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairies through tonight, with height falls overspreading much of
the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. This will be
atop a moist airmass near/east of a dryline/front located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Warm sector
surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.

Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by
mid/late afternoon, initially spanning the west-central Dakotas
southward into western Nebraska. Some semi-discrete storms including
supercells may also form farther east within the warm sector,
enhanced as the mid-level jet phases with a significantly
strengthening low-level jet primarily focused across eastern North
Dakota/northeast South Dakota. Aside from large hail, a few
tornadoes are expected, some of which could be strong especially
during the early/mid-afternoon hours. Over time and farther west,
strong low-level convergence near the instability axis will result
in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode with multiple linear
clusters/possible MCS expected to develop by evening. The severe MCS
will move eastward across the central and eastern Dakotas, with
damaging wind and some hail/tornado potential continuing eastward
tonight toward Minnesota/part of Iowa.

Aside from North Dakota/northern South Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, another supercell/tornado-favorable zone could
materialize by evening farther southeast from southeast South Dakota
into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa/southwest Minnesota.
Mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer and storm
coverage/certainty will likely be lesser across this region.
However, a rather favorable and potentially volatile environment
will exist as a secondary low-level jet branch increases and
interfaces with an effective warm frontal zone this evening, with
initial intense supercells plausible if/where storms develop.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Higher-based storms are expected to develop regionally by late
afternoon/early evening with moderate buoyancy and very steep lapse
rates favorable for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts, some
of which could be significant.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
As a byproduct of several decayed MCS, multiple MCVs will are
expected to drift east-southeastward across the region today and
interface with a moist/unstable environment influenced by outflow
and differential heating. A rejuvenated round of severe storms is
expected by mid/late afternoon, and some supercells are plausible if
MCV-related mid-level flow diurnally persists. Multicells capable of
damaging winds are the most probable hazard, but some
supercell-related tornado potential may also exist.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60 to 80 mph
winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some
potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected to
develop in parts of the central and northern Plains from this
afternoon into tonight. Severe wind gusts and hail will also be
possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward
into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S.
today. Ahead of the system, mid-level heights will fall over the
central and northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
in place over the Great Plains, with a dryline located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. To the east of
the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower
70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate
instability is expected to develop over the central Dakotas.
Thunderstorms will form near and to the east of the dryline in the
mid afternoon. Strong low-level convergence near the instability
axis will result in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode
with a large MCS expected to develop during the late afternoon and
early evening. The severe MCS will move eastward across the central
and eastern Dakotas, with the southern part of the line located in
central Nebraska.

Late afternoon RAP forecast soundings in the central Dakotas near
the instability axis have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range with
0-6 km shear between 30 to 40 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be very
favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 80 mph will be
possible with supercells early, and along the more intense parts of
the line as it develops.

Concerning the tornado threat, a mid-level jet will become
juxtaposed with a low-level jet in the late afternoon across central
and northern North Dakota. Storms that can remain discrete for a few
hours after initiation will have potential to become supercells and
produce tornadoes. The strongest low-level shear is forecast in
northeastern North Dakota, where RAP forecast soundings increase 0-3
km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range by early
evening. This will be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. Further
south from central South Dakota into Nebraska, there will be
potential for supercells with tornadoes near gaps in the line. The
threat for strong tornadoes may be greatest in the early to mid
evening as the line interacts with a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet
from far southeastern South Dakota southward into eastern Nebraska.

From late evening into the early overnight period, the severe threat
associated with the severe MCS is expected to gradually downtrend as
it moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.

...North-central and Western Kansas/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...

At mid-levels today, heights will fall within southwesterly flow
over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a moist
and unstable airmass will be located over much of the region. By
afternoon, a focused zone of maximized low-level convergence is
forecast to develop. This axis will move eastward toward the western
edge of the stronger instability, with thunderstorms forming in the
mid to late afternoon. Near the axis, MLCAPE is forecast to be
around 2000 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition,
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will be large, which will be
favorable for severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early
evening.

...Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the ridge, moderate
instability will be in place by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
that form within this moist and unstable airmass will have potential
for isolated severe gusts, mainly as low-level lapse rates become
steep in the afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging wind
gusts and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening from parts
of northeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas. Large to very
large hail, severe wind gusts from 60 to 90 mph, and a tornado
threat are likely this evening across parts of north-central and
eastern Kansas. An isolated severe threat may persist for a couple
more hours from the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwestern
Oklahoma.

...Northeast Colorado/Northwest Kansas...
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
currently moving northeastward across northeast Colorado. At the
surface, a front is located across eastern Colorado with a moist
airmass extending from northeastern Colorado southeastward into
western Kansas. Surface dewpoints along this corridor range from the
upper 50s to the mid 60s F, which is contributing to moderate to
strong instability. Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing
across northeastern Colorado along the western edge of the stronger
instability, and further north into far southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. The storms are expected to organize into a line
and move east-southeastward into southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas this evening. Large to very large hail will be
possible with the more intense supercells over the next hour or two,
mainly along the southern end of the line where some cells are
likely to remain discrete. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter
will be possible. A couple tornadoes will also be possible with
supercells. As a transition to linear mode occurs, the wind-damage
threat will increase. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible near
the leading edge of any bowing segments.

...North-central and Eastern Kansas...
On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be
located from southern Nebraska southward into central Kansas. Ahead
of this feature, a pocket of strong instability is analyzed by the
RAP over south-central Kansas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. A line of severe storms is ongoing in
north-central Kansas, to the north-northwest of the instability
maximum. Multiple supercells with potential for large to very large
hail are ongoing within this line. Over the next couple of hours,
this line is expected to organize into a bowing segment, moving
east-southeastward across the remainder of north-central Kansas and
into eastern Kansas later this evening. The instability combined
with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates
near 8 C/km will support a wind-damage threat. If a bowing line
segment can become intense later this evening, a potential will
exist for significant wind gusts above 80 mph. The wind-damage
threat will likely impact far eastern Kansas later this evening, and
western Missouri after midnight. A secondary line of thunderstorms
with severe wind gusts is expected to impact parts of north-central
Kansas after midnight.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle/Northwestern Oklahoma...
A very moist and unstable airmass is located across the southern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the eastern Texas Panhandle into
northwestern Oklahoma are in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This is
contributing to strong instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, with steep low-level lapse rates. The
thermodynamic environment should support an isolated threat for
severe wind gusts for a couple more hours this evening...see MCD
1036.

...Far Western Kentucky...
A bowing line segment is currently ongoing in far western Kentucky
along an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE near
2000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings to the south of Paducah have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 early this evening,
suggesting that an isolated tornado threat may persist for another
hour or two. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and
a couple of tornadoes are possible over the plains of eastern
Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible
farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the
late evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible
along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S.
upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly
low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into
eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower
60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in
moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs
will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase
in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist
boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in
addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast
soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the
more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the
early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger
storms with this activity diminishing by late evening.

...KS vicinity...
A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central
Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS
to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb
mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very
rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and
early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result
in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has
trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and
moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening.
Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence
has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth
occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest
southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to
develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line.
Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity.
Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with
the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap
of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy
resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts
(locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility
for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts
and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves
into western parts of MO late.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the
dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These
high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and
damaging winds for a few hours.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering
winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/08/2026


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