SPC Oct 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the western US and Rockies is forecast to
become increasingly fragmented as the primary vort max lifts
northeastward from the northern Rockies into southern Canada.
Southern portions of the main trough will be reinforced by an
upper-level cyclone emerging from northern Baja, forecast to deepen
modestly as it moves over the Desert Southwest. Relatively strong
southwesterly flow aloft will precede the southern stream low
extending eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. At
the surface, a cold front will move southward across the Plains
trailing from a deepening surface low in southern Canada. A much
weaker surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners.
A relatively moist air mass will be enhanced by weak height falls,
and the developing surface cyclones, which should gradually
strengthen south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2km AGL.

...Southwest and Four Corners...
Initial ascent from the approaching upper low will begin to
overspread the Four Corners relatively early in the forecast period.
Despite cooler surface temperatures, the moist air mass and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to sufficient
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) for storm
development/intensification as early as 12-13z. As wind fields aloft
strengthen (40-50 kt EBWD), at least an isolated risk for hail may
materialize.

More robust storm development is expected to gradually occur east of
a weak surface trough later in the diurnal cycle as destabilization
increases across south-central NM into northern Mexico and Far West
TX. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amidst modestly veering, but elongated
hodographs promoting organized clusters and supercells. Large hail
(1-2 inches) will be possible given the degree of buoyancy and
cooler mid-level temperatures. The most likely corridor for larger
hail may be confined to the greater instability reservoir across
southern portions of the risk area. While low-level shear will
remain on the weaker side, at least some curvature in the lowest 1-2
km of model hodographs could support an isolated tornado risk with
the more strongly rotating storms.

Eventually, the meridional nature of the upper-level flow and
increasing storm coverage should favor a transition to more
cluster/linear storm modes into the evening across southern NM and
West TX. Severe gusts will be possible, though eventually convection
should weaken as it encounters a more stable and drier environment
farther east.

...Northeast NM and southeast CO...
The surface cold front is forecast to move southward over the Plains
through the day. Ahead of it, low-level upslope flow will maintain
modest surface moisture sufficient for weak destabilization.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the frontal zone and
across the higher terrain through the afternoon. While weak buoyancy
should temper overall intensity, veering wind profiles could support
occasional intensification of some clusters. A low-end risk for
severe gusts or isolated hail is possible.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/24/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TW2g3S

SPC Oct 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts, and an
isolated tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico,
southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.

...20z Update...
Latest HRRR/RRFS TLE guidance suggests that a locally more favorable
corridor for left-split supercells may manifest across portions of
central/east-central NM to the north of ongoing convective
development along the Sacramento Mountains. Given the risk for large
to very large hail likely to accompany persistent, left-split
supercells, the existing CIG1 group for hail was expanded eastward
across portions of central/eastern New Mexico to capture this
corridor. No other changes were made to the existing outlook with
this update as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.

..Chalmers.. 10/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026/

...NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight...
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject
north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new
closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will
develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave
trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and
central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the
baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for
thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.

Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon,
so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely
scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation).
Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming
temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will
persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor
supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into
small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe
outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an
isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late
afternoon and diminish by early tonight.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TW2Z2L

SPC Oct 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts and an isolated
tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern
Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.

...NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight...
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject
north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new
closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will
develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave
trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and
central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the
baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for
thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.

Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon,
so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely
scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation).
Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming
temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will
persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor
supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into
small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe
outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an
isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late
afternoon and diminish by early tonight.

..Thompson/Halbert.. 10/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TW2Qxc

SPC Oct 23, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two
are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado
today into tonight.

An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the
primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great
Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary
shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and
approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the
upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong
from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent
associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the
higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern
MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker,
cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support
modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and
subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains
favorable for strong to severe storms.

...New Mexico and southern Colorado...
Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM
and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will
have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain.
Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued
advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate
destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across
southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and
intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with
organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to
elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary
risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some
veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the
flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado
risk with the strongest supercells.

Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop
where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields.
While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the
weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective
shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells.
Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially
with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also
support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher
based.

...High Plains...
A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and
adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy,
increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates
will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could
persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid
to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential.
The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain,
but 5% wind probabilities have been added.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TW1yrS