SPC Oct 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf
east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.

Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026


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SPC Oct 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A northwesterly upper flow regime continues across the CONUS as a
mid-level jet overspreads the northern Plains from the south-central
Canadian provinces. Surface high pressure remains in place east of
the MS River and west of the Rockies, with subsidence limiting
thunderstorm development over much of the CONUS. Isolated
thunderstorm development is still possible over portions of the FL
Peninsula. Earlier, transient rotating storms attempted to reach the
western peninsula shoreline, but weakened when approaching land.
With nocturnal cooling, and the weak surface low expected to meander
over the eastern Gulf, the current thinking is that thunderstorms
should only decrease in number and intensity through the night.
While a brief, land-falling waterspout cannot be ruled out, the
tornado threat appears low enough for the removal of severe
probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 10/07/2026


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SPC Oct 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook with this update. For
information on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2346.

..Weinman.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.


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SPC Oct 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Showers/some thunderstorms are common early today near the residual
front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Florida Peninsula.
A weak surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop over the
northeast Gulf today, with some guidance advertising an increase in
low/mid-tropospheric flow late today into tonight, as early day wind
profiles are otherwise weak (reference 12z observed sounding from
Tampa Bay). The more shear-optimistic guidance scenarios, via
strengthening/veering flow with height, suggest wind profiles could
trend conducive to weak/transient supercells. That said,
destabilization across the Peninsula near the front is questionable
with the expected persistence of marginal, thin CAPE profiles and
poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit
brief/transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for
persistent, rotating updrafts reaching near-shore/inland areas later
today into tonight currently appears low.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/06/2026


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