SPC Aug 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic
Piedmont. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, although a tornado
could occur.

...Eastern States...
The large-scale positive-tilt upper trough will continue to drift
eastward regionally, with the leading edge of height falls generally
parallel to the Appalachians. Ahead of a cold front, early day cloud
cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be factors that tend to
limit overall boundary-layer destabilization.

Breaks in cloud cover into this afternoon will eventually allow for
widely scattered to scattered intensifying thunderstorm development
into mid/late afternoon. This may focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain in vicinity of the
lee troughing across the Piedmont.

With at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and potential for
heavy precipitation loading in the presence of seasonably high
moisture content, localized strong downbursts may generate a few
damaging surface gusts. A brief tornado threat may also exist across
parts of upper Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic given sufficient
low-level shear/SRH in the presence of a moist boundary layer.

...North Dakota/northwest Minnesota...
The extent and likelihood of sustained deep convective development
remain uncertain. Some guidance has suggested that there may be at
least attempts at deep convective development late this afternoon
near the weak pre-cold frontal surface troughing. However, the
potential for sustained thunderstorm activity remains unclear due to
limited low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels,
associated with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region
today. A somewhat better potential for thunderstorm development may
await increasing forcing for ascent with the approach of the
upstream shortwave trough later tonight. In either case, some risk
for hail and severe winds will exist pending development across the
region.

...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Residual cloud cover and widely scattered convection should clear
relatively early today, with renewed diurnal destabilization across
southeast Arizona and nearby southwest New Mexico. At least widely
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the mountains/higher
terrain of the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, with
southwestward storm persistence across southeast Arizona aided by
moderately strong northeasterly winds. A few instances of
severe-caliber wind gusts/blowing dust are possible this afternoon
through early evening.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/02/2026


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SPC Aug 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AD EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon
and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic Piedmont. This may be
accompanied by some risk for severe weather, mainly in the form of
localized damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that one notable short wave perturbation within the
westerlies will progress east of the Canadian Rockies through much
of the Canadian Prairies by early Monday. As this occurs, it
appears that an associated surface cyclone will occlude over
northern portions of the Prairies during the day today, with one
trailing cold front advancing east of the northern U.S. Rockies
before stalling/weakening across the adjacent high plains, as
another more substantive cold front approaches the western through
central Canadian/U.S. border.

At the same time, a trailing mid-level short wave trough is forecast
to dig inland of the Pacific Northwest, then turn eastward across
the northern U.S. intermountain region into Rockies. As it does, it
appears that it will contribute to at least some suppression of
initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered over the
Southwest.

Downstream, larger-scale mid-level troughing is likely to be
maintained east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic
Seaboard. However, the most prominent embedded short wave trough
already appears to be in the process of becoming increasingly
sheared across the lower Ohio Valley. This is forecast to continue
while shifting eastward toward the Appalachians today through
tonight, with perhaps one emerging perturbation consolidating with
another digging impulse across the lower Great Lakes vicinity later
today through tonight. This may be accompanied by a northeastward
migrating surface low, trailed by a weak cold frontal slowly
advancing into and across the Appalachians.

...Eastern U.S...
To the east of the larger-scale mid-level trough axis, early day
cloud cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will probably tend to at least
slow, if not inhibit, boundary-layer destabilization. However,
convection-allowing guidance suggests that breaks in cloud cover
will eventually allow for widely scattered to scattered intensifying
thunderstorm development by late this afternoon, if not earlier.

It appears that this may tend to focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain into lee surface
troughing across the Piedmont. Given at least modest CAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg, and potential for heavy precipitation loading in the
presence of seasonably high moisture content, localized strong
downbursts may generate a few damaging surface gusts.

Within the better shear across the Allegheny Plateau into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, the evolution of transient supercell
structures accompanied by some risk for a tornado does not appear
entirely out of the question, given forecast surface dew points
near/above 70F. However, this potential remains unclear, based on
varied model guidance.

...North Dakota...
Some model output suggests that there may be at least attempts at
deep convective development late this afternoon near the weak
pre-cold frontal surface troughing. However, the potential for
sustained thunderstorm activity remains more unclear due to limited
low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels, associated
with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region during the
day. It appears that somewhat better potential for thunderstorm
development may await increasing forcing for ascent with the
approach of the upstream short wave trough by late tonight. Based
on forecast soundings this probably will be elevated or high-based
in nature, but perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and/or
gusty winds.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 08/02/2026


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SPC Aug 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms posing a risk for generally brief, weak tornadoes
across the southwestern Ohio vicinity probably will begin to
diminish within the next hour or two. Otherwise, locally strong to
severe gusts remain possible this evening in continuing thunderstorm
development across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
parts of the southern Rockies into adjacent southern Great Plains.

...01Z Update...

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Focused low-level convergence and weak to modest clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs, near a surface low now centered to the
northwest of the Greater Cincinnati area, have contributed to
transient supercell structures within developing convection
downstream of an elongating mid-level low across the lower
Ohio/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. Potential for brief/weak
tornadoes has probably been boosted by near-surface buoyancy
associated with a boundary layer characterized by high relative
humidity and surface dew points in the lower 70s, along at least a
narrow pre-frontal corridor near the southern Ohio/Indiana state
border area into north central Kentucky. However, with the loss of
daytime heating, near-surface stabilization probably will diminish
this threat by 02-03Z.

Otherwise, some intensification of pre-frontal thunderstorm
development still appears possible this evening, southward across
parts of middle and eastern Tennessee into northern Alabama.
Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are rather modest to
weak, seasonably high moisture content is supporting sizable CAPE.
Aided by 20-30 kt deep-layer southwesterly mean flow overspreading
this environment, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
transfer could still contribute to potential for localized damaging
surface gusts.

...Southern Rockies and adjacent southern Great Plains...
Convection developing southward ahead of a weak perturbation within
light northerly flow, into a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer with 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, may
continue to pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into
mid/late evening across parts of southern New Mexico and adjacent
portions of western/southwestern Texas and southeastern Arizona.

..Kerr.. 08/02/2026


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SPC Aug 1, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and far West
Texas.

...20Z Update...
The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind probabilities were expanded westward
into parts of central MS, where a very warm and moist PBL (upper 70s
dewpoints) are contributing to moderate-strong surface-based
buoyancy. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve along/ahead of the
approaching cold front will pose a risk of locally damaging wind
gusts later this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, the forecast
remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made.

..Weinman.. 08/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026/

..OH and TN Valleys...
Recent satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough
moving through the Mid MS Valley. Surface analysis shows an occluded
surface low over central IL beneath the shortwave. Expectation is
for this cyclone to drift slowly east-southeastward throughout the
day, with the surface low gradually filling. As this low fills, the
triple point low, currently near the IL/IN/KY border intersection,
will become more prominent through the afternoon before it too
occludes.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from eastern
IN/western OH through eastern TN into AL, along the eastern
periphery of an arcing warm conveyor. These showers and
thunderstorms should continue northeastward/eastward as the entire
system drifts east-southeastward, with some modest moisture
advection anticipated throughout the warm sector. This should allow
the warm sector to at least moderately destabilize, but persistent
cloudiness will limit heating, likely tempering the overall
buoyancy. Expectation is for more modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
around 500 to 1000 J/kg) across IN and OH, with greater buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) farther south across central KY and
Middle TN. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead
of the cold front as it moves through this destabilized and buoyant
airmass.

Moderate mid-level flow throughout the base of the Mid MS Valley
shortwave trough will spread eastward across KY and TN, supporting
effective shear around 30 to 35 kt across KY. Reduced vertical shear
is expected farther north across the OH Valley (due to weaker
mid-level flow) and farther south across TN Valley (due to more
westerly low-level flow). Given these kinematic conditions, a
predominantly multicellular mode is favored, although a few
supercells appear possible from southeast IN/southwest OH through
central KY. Damaging wind gusts will be the most prominent hazard,
but a tornado or two is also possible, particularly within the
corridor from far southeast IN through far north-central KY and far
southwest OH. Here, some modestly increased low-level shear is
possible near the triple point low as it moves through.

...Eastern AZ through NM into west TX...
Moderate mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain from western AZ through
central/northeast NM. Relatively strong northerly winds aloft will
aid storm organization/clustering as storms spread
south-southeastward into the deeply mixed boundary-layer across the
lower elevations. Outflow-dominant storm structures will result in
strong cold pools capable of isolated strong to severe wind gusts.
Resulting forward-propagating lines could reach as far
south/southeast as Far West TX by later this evening.


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