SPC Oct 22, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward
Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an
upstream trough now over MT. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will
be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of
ascent. Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later
this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will
diminish. Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning
flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and
minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening.

Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough,
and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest
TX.

..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024


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SPC Oct 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...North-central States...
Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in
association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO
Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave,
sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should
yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest
cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective
profile should mitigate severe potential.

Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify
across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest.
Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm
conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon.
Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based
thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front
sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be
inadequate for supporting lightning production.

...TX Trans-Pecos...
Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly
enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse
thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near
the Big Bend.

..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024


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SPC Oct 22, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may
persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to
western Oklahoma.

...NE/KS/OK...
Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail
through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low
to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over
south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks
into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the
north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will
spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability
plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours.
Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of
the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to
occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection
is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO.

..Grams.. 10/22/2024


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SPC Oct 21, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across
central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid
afternoon to early evening.

...Central Plains...
A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into
the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific
cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK.
The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with
dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of
considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of
potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most
CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where
robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in
southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail
and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of
strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main
concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK,
where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection.

Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern
NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but
strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as
convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be
sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells.

..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024


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