SPC Aug 5, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts
of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a broad upper trough over the
north-central U.S. with a couple of embedded disturbances. A
leading weak impulse appears associated with a small cluster of
strong to locally severe activity early this morning across the
IA-MO border vicinity, near and immediately north of a stationary
front. These showers/thunderstorms will likely continue east of the
MS River but it remains unclear whether these storms maintain a
localized risk for severe before gradually weakening. Later today,
ascent associated with an upstream disturbance moving through the
base of the larger-scale trough over NE into IA, will favor
additional storm development as the boundary layer heats south of
the frontal zone. Moderate buoyancy is forecast by guidance and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential storm
organization. The stronger storms may yield an episodic severe risk
before gradually diminishing during the evening.

...Southeastern Arizona...
A seasonably moist airmass sampled this morning by surface
observations (lower 60s F dewpoints) will undergo strong heating
through late afternoon. Orographic lifting will favor convection
developing over the higher terrain and gradually
spreading/developing into the lower deserts during the early
evening. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute
towards a risk for strong downdrafts capable of a microburst threat
(60-80 mph). Considered a Slight-Risk based on potentially
scattered storm coverage moving into the lower deserts, but
sufficient model run-to-run (time-lagged HRRR) variability and model
ensemble spread (i.e., 00z HREF vs. REFS) preclude a wind-driven
upgrade at this time.

...Southern High Plains...
Weak but adequately moist, post-frontal upslope flow into the Raton
Mesa vicinity will favor widely scattered diurnal storm development
by mid-late afternoon. Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow
will favor storms and their incipient outflow to the east-southeast
into the adjacent High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates and
relatively dry sub-cloud layer, evaporative cooling will probably
result in a few storms being capable of localized severe gusts
(60-80 mph).

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/05/2026


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SPC Aug 5, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible from this afternoon into the overnight across parts of the
mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in
parts of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward today across the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located from the central Plains northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Along and to the south of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop to the south of the
front. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough will support
scattered to numerous thunderstorm development from this afternoon
into tonight across much of Missouri and Illinois.

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon near the instability axis
in northeast Missouri have MLCAPE near 2000 j/kg, with 0-6 km shear
around 35 knots. This may support supercell development with storms
that remain discrete. However, high-resolution models suggest that
storm mode could be more favorable for multicells due to widespread
convective coverage. Although low-level lapse rates will be poor,
the instability and moderate deep-layer shear could be enough for
isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

...Southern High Plains...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much
of the central U.S. A small pocket of moderate instability is
forecast to develop over southeast Colorado this afternoon. This
will aid convective initiation in the foothills of the southern
Rockies. During the late afternoon and early evening, storms are
expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of the
northwestern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle. The
instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may support an
isolated threat for severe wind gusts.

...Southeastern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today across southern
Arizona. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will
develop over much of southeast Arizona by afternoon. Convection is
expected to form in the higher terrain of southwest New Mexico, with
storms moving west-southwestward across southeast Arizona from late
afternoon into the early evening. Very steep low-level lapse rates
and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will contribute to a
potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/05/2026


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SPC Aug 5, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening in parts of southern Arizona, the southern Rockies, the
southern High Plains and the Upper Midwest.

...Southern Arizona...
The latest surface analysis shows a sufficiently moist airmass over
southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 50s to
around 60 F. This is contributing to moderate instability over parts
of southern Arizona, with the RAP suggesting that MLCAPE is in the
1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms have developed in the higher
terrain of southwest New Mexico. These storms will move
west-southwestward across southern Arizona this evening. In addition
to the instability, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads across this
airmass are large which is resulting in very steep low-level lapse
rates. This will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts
this evening.

...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the southern Rockies early
this evening. These storms will move east-southeastward across
southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico this evening,
where the RAP has SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg with moderate deep-layer
shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. The environment will
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts and hail over
the next few hours.

...Upper Midwest...
An upper-level trough will move through the north-central U.S. this
evening. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place over the mid Missouri and mid to upper Mississippi Valleys.
An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from northeast Kansas into
southeast Iowa, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. This is
contributing to moderate instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE in
the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Short-term model forecasts suggest that
scattered thunderstorms will develop near the instability axis
during the overnight period. The instability along with about 30
knots of 0-6 km shear will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2026


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SPC Aug 4, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are possible across southeast Arizona
during the late afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
No major changes have been made to the outlook. Initial high-terrain
storm development is expected to move west-southwestward across
southeast AZ from late afternoon into the evening, with a primary
threat of scattered severe gusts. Other strong to locally severe
storms are possible through the afternoon into the early evening
across parts of the Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains, parts
of IA/northern MO, and the southern Appalachians/western Carolinas
region. Late tonight, a few strong elevated storms may develop
across parts of southeast NE, IA, and northern MO. See the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Dean.. 08/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026/

...Southeast Arizona...
A flattened mid/upper-level ridge over the Southwest will continue
to feature a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level easterlies across
northern Mexico into far southern portions of AZ/NM. Even with
convective overturning yesterday, a seasonably moist low-level
airmass across southeast AZ/southwest NM will undergo strong heating
this afternoon, with up to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast per latest
RAP/NAM forecast soundings. Initial widely scattered convective
development over the higher terrain will gradually move westward
across southeast AZ during the late afternoon and evening. A very
well-mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates ahead
of this activity will support ample evaporative cooling potential
with the stronger thunderstorm downdrafts. The resultant microbursts
and associated outflow should yield a risk for 60-80 mph gusts as
thunderstorms potentially congeal into one or more small clusters
through the evening.

...Eastern Nebraska into Iowa and Northern Missouri...
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of
NE to the north of a surface cold front extending from the southern
High Plains northeastward to the Upper Midwest. Stronger mid-level
flow and related large-scale ascent will tend to remain displaced to
the north of the front through the period. But, there may still be
some potential for a surface-based thunderstorm or two to develop
along/near the front late this afternoon/early evening across
IA/northern MO and vicinity in a moderately unstable airmass. While
still appearing fairly conditional, isolated hail/damaging winds may
occur if convection develops. Otherwise, a greater chance for
additional elevated thunderstorms should exist tonight into early
Wednesday morning from eastern NE into IA. This activity may also
pose an isolated hail/gusty wind threat.

...Raton Mesa into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Although overall magnitudes will remain limited, a local maximum in
instability should develop this afternoon near the Raton Mesa into
southeast CO, where widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop in a post-frontal low-level upslope regime. Recent
high-resolution guidance continues to show this activity moving
slowly southeastward into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the
early evening. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest
(20-30 kt), marginally severe hail is possible with the stronger
cores, and isolated severe gusts may occur with any loosely
organized clusters that can develop.

...Southern Appalachians/Western Carolinas...
A closed mid-level low will remain centered over GA today. To the
east/northeast of this low, filtered daytime heating of a moist
low-level airmass will support the development of moderate
instability over the western Carolinas into north GA and eastern TN
this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
across this region through 17-19Z as convective temperatures are
reached. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, an isolated
threat for damaging winds associated with microbursts may develop as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen.


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