SPC Feb 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central
FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue
to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually
offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL
Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection.
This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide
a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500
mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid
afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and
mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level
winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon.
Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur
with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses
offshore by this evening.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/28/2026


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SPC Feb 28, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon
and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

...FL Peninsula...

Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula
this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will
encourage a surface front to settle south across the central
Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for
convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across
the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust
convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures
will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt
expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft
organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along
with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and
the primary concern will be between 18-00z.

...Elsewhere...

A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the
High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is
expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that
will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the
evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak
buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with
this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be
too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts.

Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a
short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z.
High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated
thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent
and moistening profiles spread into this region.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026


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SPC Feb 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorm threat continues tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak MCS has evolved over the eastern Gulf/west-central FL Peninsula
early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an MCV may be
embedded within the broader precip shield over Hernando county, and
this feature is shifting steadily east. Greatest concentration of
convection this evening will likely be immediately ahead of this
feature, with a trailing band of somewhat stronger updrafts trailing
southwest across the Tampa region into the eastern Gulf. While this
trailing band may exhibit a bit more intensity, the threat of severe
remains low as poor midlevel lapse rates are likely inhibiting
updraft strength.

..Darrow.. 02/28/2026


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SPC Feb 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe
thunderstorms appears low.

...20z Update - Southeast...

No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous
discussion below for details.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.


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