LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon
and evening across parts of the southern High Plains.
...Southern Plains vicinity...
A midlevel shortwave trough will shift east across the southern
Plains on Friday. As this occurs, 500 mb temperatures cooling to
around -10 to -12 C, resulting in steepening midlevel lapse rates,
will overspread western portions of Texas into western OK. A belt of
enhanced west/southwesterly midlevel flow associated with this
feature, atop southeasterly low-level flow, will create favorable
vertically veering wind profiles, with 40+ kt effective-shear
magnitudes supporting supercell structures. Southeasterly low-level
flow will allow for low/mid 60s F dewpoints as far west as the TX/NM
border along a surface trough. Strong heating, especially from the
Big Bend toward the South Plains vicinity, will support a corridor
of strong destabilization by afternoon (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE).
A mix of discrete supercells and organized clusters is expected by
late afternoon and continuing into the evening. Elongated
hodographs, in the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates/large
CAPE, and favorable midlevel shear suggest large to very large hail
will be possible, especially with more discrete convection. Steep
low-level lapse rates and modest low-level shear also will support
strong downburst winds. Damaging-wind potential may increase toward
evening as some guidance suggests a bowing MCS could develop
eastward across the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) area. This evolution
is a bit uncertain, given a lack of a strong low-level jet response
in most forecast guidance. However, if a strong-enough cold pool in
generated, some upscale development seems plausible during the
evening. While low-level shear will generally be modest, some
augmentation to strength of low-level shear is possible near a
surface low developing near the NM/TX border. Increased 0-3 km SRH
along this corridor will support a relative max in tornado
potential.
Vertical shear will weaken with northward extent into OK and KS, and
strong large-scale ascent will remain focused over west TX. This may
limit longevity of more intense/organized cells developing during
the late afternoon with northward extent. Nevertheless, moderate
instability/shear will still support isolated strong/severe storms
from western OK into southern KS.
...Northeast...
Generally weak deep-layer northerly flow will persist across the
region on the eastern periphery of a Great Lakes upper anticyclone.
Some modest midlevel cooling and weak ascent associated with an
approaching shortwave trough from Quebec, in combination with
seasonal moisture/instability will support isolated thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain very weak, limiting
longevity and organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates and well mixed boundary-layer could foster a
few strong gusts and small hail in stronger cells.
..Leitman.. 06/01/2023
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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
Thursday, June 1, 2023
SPC Jun 1, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC Jun 1, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated
severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across
portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough/low now over Arizona on water-vapor imagery
will continue into the Four Corners today. This feature is expected
to weaken during the day. Moderate mid-level winds will exist across
the southern High Plains. At the surface, ongoing precipitation
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across the Texas Panhandle
should leave an outflow boundary in the vicinity of the South
Plains. With the approach of the trough, a modest surface trough
will develop in eastern New Mexico, helping to maintain moisture
influx into the region.
...Southern High Plains...
An area of precipitation is expected to continue into Thursday
morning in the Texas Panhandle. Outflow from this activity should
provide some focus for thunderstorm development by late
morning/afternoon. Precipitation is also occurring in the
Trans-Pecos due to weak mid-level ascent in the region. This
activity could impact the overall convective evolution today, though
most guidance has this activity diminishing before Thursday morning.
Guidance is in reasonable agreement with the location of the outflow
boundary, but there are differences in the timing of convective
initiation. With a weak shortwave moving into the area, there is
some potential for storms to form by late morning. This would have
some impact on the degree of destabilization that can occur. Even
with this uncertainty, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient
shear (30-35 kts effective) would support supercells capable of
primarily large hail, isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
or two. The environment appears to support very large hail with
supercells, though this would be more favored with initiation later
in the day. The tornado threat will similarly be modulated by time
of initiation, but also the degree of destabilization within the
outflow to the north.
...Northern High Plains...
A weak shortwave trough will move into the region along with a
surface low developing in eastern Montana. Scattered convection will
develop within a modestly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
environment. Flow aloft will be generally weak. Gusty winds and
small hail will be possible. Coverage of severe-caliber storms still
appears too limited for unconditional probabilities.
..Wendt/Kerr.. 06/01/2023
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Tuesday, May 30, 2023
SPC May 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-80 mph gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central High Plains
late this afternoon through the evening.
...Central Great Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing
early this morning before likely dissipating by mid morning over
NE/KS. An MCV associated with this early day convection may focus
at least isolated storm development during the afternoon into the
early evening over the lower MO Valley. Isolated severe gusts may
accompany the pulse-like thunderstorms.
Farther west, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to move
generally east from the CO Rockies to the CO/KS border by mid
evening. Initially isolated storms are forecast to develop near the
Cheyenne Ridge and east of the Front Range by mid afternoon. Strong
heating through mid-late afternoon will result in very steep lapse
rates (8.5 deg C/km in the surface-300 mb layer). As this activity
moves into slightly richer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s),
a broken linear cluster is forecast to develop (CAM guidance
consensus agrees with this notion) from southwest NE/northeast CO
southward to the TX/OK Panhandles. Forecast soundings show slightly
stronger mid- to high-level westerly flow from I-70 northward, which
may aid in hail potential and severe-gust potential. Significant
severe gusts are possible during the early phase of the loosely
organized squall line. By late evening, the risk for severe gusts
will likely have diminished as the gust front/cold pool become less
organized as the MCS moves towards central KS/northwest OK.
...Upper MS Valley...
A mid-level short-wave trough initially over the Dakotas will move
east into MN during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop near a weak surface trough by mid afternoon.
With some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwesterlies
associated with the upper system, a few stronger/sustained storms
are expected to evolve with large hail being the primary threat.
This potential should peak through late afternoon, and then diminish
through the evening.
..Smith/Wendt.. 05/30/2023
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Wednesday, May 24, 2023
SPC May 24, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a Rex Block will be
in place over the eastern CONUS D4/Saturday morning. This blocking
pattern will likely remain in place through the early next week when
the upper low moves off the Southeast coast. During this same time
frame, an upper low is forecast to drift slowly
southeastward/eastward across the Great Basin.
Low-level moisture is expected to remain in place over the Plains
and the relatively stagnant upper pattern should allow for a
somewhat repetitive scenario of afternoon thunderstorm development
across the High Plains. This will result in a broad area of at
least low severe potential across the High Plains through the
weekend and into early next week. Smaller areas of greater severe
potential may become apparent/more predicable as the forecast range
decreases.
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