SPC Oct 9, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and
continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD
#2349 and Tornado Watch #677.

..Weinman.. 10/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen
significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.


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SPC Oct 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. Such forecasts
call for additional strengthening of Isaias today as it continues
generally north-northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle/far
southern Alabama.

As this scenario unfolds, eastern-peripheral rainbands will spread
northward, potentially as far east as the near-coastal western
Peninsula today, and more so toward the Florida coastal bend and
eventually broader parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southern
Alabama and southern Georgia by late today into tonight. This will
occur as inland continental trajectories are displaced/overcome by a
northward-advancing Isaias and eastward-extending maritime warm
front. Destabilization will tend to be maximized in coastal areas on
its eastern periphery, all while low-level winds/SRH significantly
strengthen over time. Rotating storms will have the potential to
produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle/nearby
northern Florida into southeast Alabama and far southern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/09/2026


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SPC Oct 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential
to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period
from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall
near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias
approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread
across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will
develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is
forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the
coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east
of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which
will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes.
The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period
as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026


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SPC Oct 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central
part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a plume of mid-level moisture
associated with Hurricane Isaias from the central Gulf of America
northeastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated
with Isaias will move inland across the Florida Peninsula this
evening into tonight. Over the southern half of Florida, the RAP
shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The most favorable zone
for rotating storms will be along the northern edge of the stronger
instability near and to the southeast of Tampa Bay. RAP forecast
soundings in the area have veering winds with height in the lowest 3
km with enough low-level shear for an isolated tornado threat.

...Iowa...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow is located over the central
and northern U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving
through South Dakota. Lift will be maximized in the mid Missouri
Valley ahead of this feature, along the far eastern edge of a
central Plains low-level speed max. As low-level flow increases this
evening, elevated storms will continue to develop over western and
central Iowa. RAP forecast soundings in west-central Iowa show a
sharp temperature inversion at low-levels, with steep lapse rates
above 900 mb. The resulting MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range. This combined with about 50 knots of effective
shear should be enough for an isolated hail threat.

..Broyles.. 10/09/2026


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