SPC Dec 6, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated weak/elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the Southeast in a modest low-level warm advection regime. As a large-scale upper trough moves quickly eastward across much of the eastern CONUS, this convection is forecast to likewise develop eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Elevated instability ahead of this activity should remain quite meager due to a prior frontal intrusion into the northern Gulf of Mexico. There also appears to be some chance that modest low-level moisture may be able to advance inland across parts of north FL and southern GA by Wednesday afternoon. Regardless, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be particularly poor, which should limit the degree of MLCAPE that can develop. While a few surface-based storms could form across this area during the day, the weak forecast instability suggests that the overall severe potential should remain low. ..Gleason.. 12/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SDrBkJ

SPC Dec 6, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a lead wave ejects from New England northeastward over the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is expected to dominate much of the CONUS east of the Rockies as it slowly shifts eastward to the Atlantic Coast through the period. Due to a prior frontal passage, rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast. Only very weak boundary-layer instability is forecast to develop across parts of north FL Tuesday afternoon, and the potential for robust thunderstorms appears low. However, some elevated convection may occur primarily Tuesday evening/night across parts of the Gulf Coast states as modest low-level warm/moist advection develops on the southern periphery of the amplifying upper trough. ..Gleason.. 12/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SDqHnd

SPC Dec 6, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely during the morning and early afternoon across within the ArkLaMiss vicinity. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will continue to move eastward through the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. An increasingly occluded surface low will shift from the upper Great Lakes vicinity into Quebec. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward from the surface low through the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Texas. This front will make steady progress through the day, moving off of the Gulf and East coasts by the end of the period. ...ArkLaMiss Vicinity... A line of strong to occasionally severe storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period. This line will continue south and east through the day. Cloud cover ahead of the front will limit the available buoyancy, but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F should support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the region. While low/mid-level flow will decrease, particularly during the afternoon, enough favorable overlap of 35-40 kt winds within the lowest 2 km will promote a threat for damaging wind gusts as the cold front moves through by early afternoon. Enough storm coverage is expected to include 15% wind probabilities. ...Coastal/East Texas... Greater moisture and warmer temperatures are expected across this region. Given the displacement of the mid-level forcing to the northeast, storm coverage will generally remain isolated. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for marginally severe hail. This will particularly be the case if a discrete storm or two can form ahead of the front. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible. ...Mid-South into Southeast... Strong low-level winds and slightly better mid-level forcing will exist across the region. The main limiting factor will be the rapid drop-off of buoyancy with northeastward extent. Isolated wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms along the cold front. ...Northeast... Strong forcing and stout low/mid-level winds will overspread the region during the afternoon and evening. While weak convection along the cold front is possible, the potential for deeper updrafts and convectively augmented wind gusts still appears low. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 12/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SDqHm0