SPC Feb 11, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...CA/Great Basin...
A stationary mid-level low near San Francisco Bay will maintain
cyclonic flow from the eastern Pacific through CA and into the Great
Basin. The associated mid-level cold pocket (-24 to -26 deg C) will
combine with limited diurnal heating to contribute to pockets of
weak, intermittent destabilization. Low-topped convection may yield
some lightning flashes with the stronger updrafts. However, overall
weak and fleeting buoyancy will limit storm vigor and preclude a
severe risk.

Elsewhere, a cold front will continue pushing southeast across the
Southeast states and reach the Carolina coast later today.
West-to-east moving showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon before ceasing by this evening.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/11/2026


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SPC Feb 11, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...CA/Great Basin...

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the
Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that
will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this
feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA
into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low.
Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so
weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the
interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear,
but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a
few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering
profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small
hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.

...Southeast...

Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today
in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA
coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected
ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of
the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust
convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
but this activity is expected to remain isolated.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026


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SPC Feb 11, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong upper trough is approaching the CA coast early this evening.
High-level diffluent flow is overspreading much of this region and
weak convection is gradually deepening, per isolated lightning flash
over the Sierra Nevada. As midlevels cool, steepening lapse rates
should aid further destabilization along with the risk for isolated
thunderstorms.

Isolated thunderstorms have spread a bit farther downstream into
south central TX in association with the upper trough ejecting
across northeast Mexico. This activity should wane over the next few
hours.

Across the OH/TN Valleys, isolated thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the cold front that will advance southeast across
this region. A few lightning flashes have recently been noted across
WV, immediately ahead of the front. 00z soundings across this region
do not exhibit appreciably buoyancy, but further destabilization is
possible and this should aid a bit more coverage later this evening.

..Darrow.. 02/11/2026


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SPC Feb 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
12 UTC surface observations depict a southward advancing cold front
draped from the upper Great Lakes region into the southern Plains.
Aloft, an upper wave is forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes
region in response to the southward push of an arctic air mass
behind the front, while a low-amplitude upper disturbance over
northern Mexico migrates eastward along the Gulf coast. Along the
West Coast, cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper
trough will overspread central CA through tonight.

...Big Bend region of TX and portions of the OH Valley...
The combination of increasing ascent along the front and ahead of
the upper waves should promote increasing showers from the OH Valley
southwestward into the Big Bend region of TX. While buoyancy
profiles will remain fairly modest along and ahead of the frontal
zone due to warm mid-level temperatures (as noted in 12 UTC RAOBs),
temperatures aloft should be sufficiently cold for isolated
thunderstorms. A few recent CAM solutions hint at the potential for
loosely organized convection across portions of eastern KY into WV
where deep-layer shear will be fairly strong (around 40 knots) in
proximity to an intensifying upper jet. However, meager buoyancy
will likely modulate updraft intensities.

...California...
Persistent lightning has been noted in GOES GLM data off the CA
coast under the approaching upper-level trough. The 12 UTC OAK RAOB
also sampled cool mid-level temperatures near -20 C just below 500
mb. With further cooling/moistening aloft expected with the eastward
translation of the upper trough, isolated thunderstorms appear
likely after 00 UTC.

..Moore.. 02/10/2026


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