SPC Oct 16, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England...
A large-scale positive-tilt upper-level trough will approach the
region, with a modest buoyancy/high-vertical shear scenario expected
to be favorable for low-topped/fast-moving storms capable of wind
damage near/ahead of a cold front. Such severe potential is expected
to maximize across the Delmarva and eastern Pennsylvania into New
Jersey and southern New York.

Stratus remains very prevalent across much of the region late this
morning, although visible satellite imagery reflects a rather quick
erosion south to north across southern Virginia, and this same trend
should continue for east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians spine
especially across Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and perhaps
nearby parts of New Jersey/Delmarva.

A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop
east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold
front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level
moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front
through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the
500-1000 J/kg range, particularly where more cloud breaks occur.
But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite
poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should
temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped
convection which develops along/near the front may produce little
lightning, especially with northward extent into southern New
England.

Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable
deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the
strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may
occur. A low-topped convective line will further develop across
central into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York this
afternoon. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing
scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this
activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England through early evening. A few line-embedded
mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief
tornado.

..Guyer/Karstens.. 10/16/2026


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SPC Oct 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a prominent and
positively tilted upper trough extending from eastern Canada into
the Upper Midwest. This upper trough will advance eastward while
amplifying over the eastern CONUS through the period, with enhanced
west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow expected to overspread much of
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A related surface low over southern
Ontario will develop east-northeastward today into southern Quebec,
as a trailing cold front sweeps east-southeastward across the
eastern states. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase
ahead of the front through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should
gradually increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range with filtered
daytime heating. But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely
to remain quite poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings).
This should temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and
low-topped convection which develops along/near the front may
produce little lighting, especially with northward extent into
southern New England.

Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable
deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the
strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may
occur this morning with ongoing convection along/near the front
across western PA/NY, even though instability remains very limited.
Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest that a low-topped
convective line will further develop across central into eastern PA
and southern NY by 17-21Z. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable
of producing scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe
risk as this activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through early evening. The
greatest coverage of damaging winds should focus across parts of
eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where locally greater
instability is forecast.

The potential for line-embedded mesocirculations is less clear.
While some low-level shear will be present, the enhanced low-level
flow is forecast to gradually veer to west-southwesterly through the
afternoon/evening, which may reduce effective SRH somewhat. Still,
at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
should spread towards the coast before convection weakens this
evening due to marine layer influences and nocturnal cooling.
Overall, the ongoing forecast aligns reasonably well with recent
short-term guidance/observational trends, and therefore only minor
changes have been made to severe probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/16/2026


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SPC Oct 16, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with wind-damage and localized brief-tornado potential
are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...
A deep, positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough is forecast to further
amplify as it spreads over the eastern CONUS today. A surface low
initially near the lower Great Lakes will move quickly eastward
toward northern New England by evening. A trailing cold front will
sweep through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from this afternoon
into tonight.

In the wake of early-day clouds and precipitation, seasonably rich
low-level moisture and modest diurnal heating will result in
sufficient destabilization for storm development along the front.
Very weak lapse rates above 500 mb will constrain MLCAPE magnitudes
to the 500-1000 J/kg range, and result in rather low-topped
convection. However, in areas where temperatures can rise to
near/above 70 F, relatively robust buoyancy near/below 500 mb
(characterized by lifted indices in the -4 to -6 C range) will
develop prior to the frontal passage. This buoyancy will be
sufficient for development of occasionally organized storm
structures, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer flow/shear.
35-45 kt of flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer will support potential for
strong/damaging gusts with any sufficiently robust convection.

Generally front-parallel flow may result in a primarily linear mode
as convective coverage increases, though 40+ kt of effective shear
will support potential for embedded low-topped supercells. A
localized wind-damage threat may develop early this afternoon from
WV/western PA into southern NY, with initial frontal development.
The wind-damage threat is expected to increase through the afternoon
as storms spread eastward into a somewhat warmer and more unstable
environment across eastern PA, NJ, and vicinity. Rather strong
low-level shear will also support some brief-tornado potential with
QLCS circulations and/or embedded supercell structures.

Some wind-damage potential could spread into southern New England by
this evening, though marine-influenced low-level stability should
eventually constrain the eastward extent of the threat.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/16/2026


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SPC Oct 16, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IN INTO OH...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of localized strong/damaging gusts and
possibly a brief tornado remain possible this evening across parts
of southern Indiana into Ohio.

...Parts of IN/OH...
A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening across southern IN,
near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low
move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front will
continue to move northward. Modest buoyancy within the persistent
low-level warm-advection regime will allow for maintenance of
convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though
surface-based buoyancy will become increasingly scant with time and
northeastward extent.

In the short term, locally damaging wind will be possible with the
strongest storms. Favorable low-level shear/SRH may also support a
brief-tornado threat, though this threat should eventually diminish
as convection tends to become increasingly elevated. Some threat for
localized strong/damaging gusts could spread across OH through late
evening, before increasing low-level stability results in a
diminishing threat.

..Dean.. 10/16/2026


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