SPC Nov 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from
this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a deep shortwave trough
progressing through the Four Corners vicinity, with a lead shortwave
trough moving through the central Plains. Evolution of the lead
shortwave has contributed to the development of a pair of surface
lows, one near the MT/SD/ND border intersection and the other over
the western NE/SD border vicinity. Recent surface analysis reveals a
cold front extending between these two lows and south-southwestward
from the southernmost low through eastern CO. A large warm sector
precedes this cold front, with 60s dewpoints reaching into central
NE and mid 60s reaching through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles
into western KS.

The Four Corners shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward
today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by this afternoon
and through much of the central and southern Plains by early Tuesday
morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will precede this system,
spreading eastward/northeastward from the southern Plains into the
Mid/Upper MS Valley throughout the period. Thunderstorms are
expected over much the Plains today as this system interacts with
the moist and unstable airmass in place.

A weak upper low will also drift westward from the FL Peninsula into
the eastern Gulf. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the FL Peninsula today as this low interacts with the very
moist airmass in place.

...Southern and Central Plains into Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the
eastern TX Panhandle through central KS this morning. These showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue northeastward as the lead
shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis continues northeastward.
Some mid-level drying is anticipated in the wake of these storms
from western/central KS southward along the TX/OK border into
northwest TX. This drying should allow for filtered heating across
this region, allowing temperatures to climb into mid 70s (across
western KS) to low 80s (across northwest TX). These temperatures
should be high enough to erode much, if not all, of the convective
inhibition, setting the stage for afternoon thunderstorm development
as height falls associated with the Four Corners shortwave trough
impinge on the region.

Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support long hodographs,
although the more moderate low-level flow does result in some
weakening/backing between 850 and 700 mb. As a result, initial
development may take some time to get organized, with at least some
potential for it to trend towards bowing line segments. However, the
general expectation is for at least a few isolated, warm-sector
supercells from south-central KS through western OK by 22-23Z.
Low-level flow is forecast to increase once again around 00Z, so any
supercells that persist should begin to encounter increasingly
favorable kinematics during that time frame. This evolution suggests
a corridor of relatively greater tornado potential from
north-central OK into south-central KS where it is most likely for
supercells to interact with the strengthening low-level shear.

Additional storm development is anticipated along the dryline
itself. By 00Z Tuesday, this dryline will likely extend southward
from western KS along the TX/OK border and int southwest TX. Gradual
eastward progression of this dryline is anticipated before the cold
front catches up to it in the central KS/central OK vicinity early
Tuesday morning. Severe wind gusts and a QLCS tornado threat will be
possible with this line throughout the evening and overnight hours,
with the threat potentially continuing into the early morning across
portions of western MO and the OK/AR border vicinity.

...North TX into the TX Hill Country...
Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated
along the dryline as it interacts with the moist and unstable
airmass in place across the region. The stronger mid-level flow and
forcing for ascent will be displaced north of the region, but
vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized updrafts.
Large hail is possible early in the convective cycle, but damaging
gusts appear to be the main threat as the convection grows upscale
into an eastward-propagating line. A few line-embedded tornadoes are
possible as well, particularly across north-central TX where
low-level shear is maximized on the southern edge of the low-level
jet.

...FL Peninsula...
Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are
anticipated across the FL Peninsula today. Buoyancy will remain
fairly modest, and vertical shear is weak, limiting the overall
severe potential. However, ample low-level moisture and relatively
strong low-level westerly flow could support a brief tornado,
particularly via constructive interaction between cells. However,
the overall potential appears too low to introduce any tornado
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier/Mosier.. 11/02/2026


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SPC Nov 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from
this afternoon into tonight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will move across the southern Rockies today
and into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the system, the exit
region of a mid-level jet will overspread the southern and central
Plains this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central High Plains as a
pre-frontal trough moves into the southern and central Plains. Ahead
of this feature, moisture advection will take place with surface
dewpoints gradually increasing into the mid to upper 60s F over much
of Texas, Oklahoma and the eastern half of Kansas. Across the moist
sector, RAP forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will only peak in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm and
low-level convergence becomes maximized near the pre-frontal trough
in the afternoon, convective development will take place.
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage from
the afternoon into the early evening, as several line segments
organize and move east-northeastward across the moist sector.

The convective mode is the main question for this event. It seems
possible that the convection will line out quickly during the
afternoon, and that discrete cell formation will be minimized. Even
so, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will
likely support severe thunderstorm development with vigorous
updrafts associated with organized lines and potentially
semi-discrete supercells. The latest RAP forecast soundings from
central Oklahoma north-northeastward into eastern Kansas suggest
that 0-6 km shear will be around 50 knots. Although some directional
shear is present, the stronger component will be speed increases
with height in the low-levels. Near the axis of the low-level jet,
0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 250 to 300
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells and
with rotating elements embedded in organized line segments. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense line
segments, especially with bowing structures. A greater tornado
threat could materialize across Oklahoma or southeast Kansas, if a
cluster of discrete cells can persist into the late afternoon or
early evening. A severe threat will continue throughout the evening
as a larger-scale line segment moves eastward across the moist
sector, reaching western Missouri and far eastern Oklahoma around
midnight. Severe wind gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado threat will
be possible with this line.

...Texas...
Southwesterly cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of Texas, as an upper-level trough approaches. Ahead of the
system, an axis of moderate instability will develop as surface
temperatures warm. A capping inversion will be in place over much of
Texas into afternoon. This cap will likely weaken during the mid
afternoon, allowing for convective initiation over parts of
west-central and northwest Texas. A convective band, with a mixed
mode, is expected to form and move eastward into north-central Texas
by early evening. Ahead of this forecast band by 00Z, surface
dewpoints are expected to peak in the upper 60s F, with MLCAPE
reaching the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will be favorable for
strong updrafts and scattered severe storms. The southeastern edge
of the mid-level jet will create moderate deep-layer shear along the
axis of instability. This will support supercell development with
cells that can remain discrete. Intense line segments are also
expected with cells that congeal. Severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will be possible during the late afternoon and early to
mid evening. The greatest tornado threat should be concentrated in
north-central Texas where low-level shear is maximized on the
southern edge of the low-level jet.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/02/2026


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SPC Nov 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of
New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains.

...New Mexico/Southern and Central High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving through southern
California with a lead shortwave trough over far eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico. Strong southwesterly flow is present in the
mid-levels from New Mexico eastward into the southern and central
High Plains. Ahead of the lead shortwave trough, thunderstorms have
recently developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico
in response to strong large-scale ascent. These storms are expected
to move east-northeastward into parts of northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado this evening, and will likely have a potential
for severe wind gusts.

Further to the east, a lee surface trough is located over eastern
New Mexico with a moist airmass extending from near the trough
eastward into the southern High Plains. Surface dewpoints have
recently increased into the lower to mid 60s F over parts of eastern
New Mexico, where the RAP has an axis of moderate instability with
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1800 J/g range. To the west of the instability
axis, a band of strong storms is expected to develop this evening
over central New Mexico. Short-term model forecasts have this line
becoming organized this evening, moving east-northeastward across
eastern and northeastern New Mexico into Texas Panhandle. Ahead of
this line, severe wind gusts are expected. The faster moving bowing
segments may produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells will also
be possible within the line due to strong deep-layer shear. The
latest WSR-88D VWP at Amarillo has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
near 350 m2/s2, suggesting that tornadoes will be possible...see MCD
2424.

The severe threat associated with the line of storms is expected to
persist into the overnight period, with the line moving into parts
of northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas where isolated
severe gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 11/02/2026


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SPC Nov 1, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
and a few tornadoes will become a concern across much of New Mexico
into the southern/central High Plains from late this afternoon
through tonight. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may
also occur with convection across parts of Arizona this afternoon
and evening.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed this outlook cycle. Regional radar shows a
broad area of precipitation continuing to overspread much of
Arizona, associated with the lead short-wave trough. Thus far, this
convective activity has remained sub-severe, though some enhancement
in reflectivity and lightning activity is starting to occur along
the leading edge in southeast AZ. The downstream airmass across
portions of New Mexico has remained relatively clear, allowing for
modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) amid ample
deep-layer shear. Given these observational trends, the expectation
for a broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms emerging across
eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z remains on track.

In the wake of this activity, some clearing can be noted in
southwest Arizona where a pocket of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE has emerged.
An isolated severe wind and tornado threat remains possible if
storms are able to redevelop in this region.

..Karstens.. 11/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026/

...Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Extensive cloud cover remains prevalent over much of AZ/NM into the
southern/central High Plains this morning, as low/mid-level moisture
continues to spread over these regions downstream of highly
amplified upper troughing extending across the West Coast. Multiple
embedded mid-level perturbations and a strong mid/upper-level
subtropical jet will overspread the Southwest and adjacent
southern/central High Plains through tonight. A pronounced low-level
mass response is forecast across the southern/central High Plains
late tonight, with greater low-level moisture expected to stream
northward across these regions. Still, the primary uncertainty
relating to severe potential through the period remains how much
destabilization can occur in an otherwise favorably sheared
environment.

Current expectations are for widespread cloudiness to hinder diurnal
heating and the development of instability to some degree through
the late afternoon, although some cloud breaks remain possible given
recent trends in visible satellite imagery across NM. The tropical
source region for the enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow
overspreading the Southwest will also limit mid-level lapse rates,
with consensus of latest guidance suggesting they will remain near
moist adiabatic through much of the troposphere. Even with these
potential thermodynamic limitations, there will probably be enough
weak boundary-layer instability in place by late afternoon across
western/central NM to support surface-based convection.

A broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms should develop across
eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the Southwest. While
MLCAPE may only reach the 250-750 J/kg range, strongly veering and
increasing flow with height through low/mid-levels will support
ample deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. An increasing threat
for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes remains apparent as this convection spreads quickly
east-northeastward through the evening, with some potential for
isolated 75+ mph gusts. Greater low-level moisture (low 60s surface
dewpoints) and related instability will be present across parts of
the southern/central High Plains this evening and overnight, and an
increasing threat for severe winds and a few tornadoes will likely
exist across these regions given the continued presence of favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear. This threat will likely continue
through the end of the period (early Monday morning) across the
OK/TX Panhandles into portions of southwest KS and western OK.

Across southern/central AZ, an isolated severe wind and tornado
threat may also develop this afternoon behind the initial/lead
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms should form as
large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper trough
overspreads this region. While instability is expected to remain
limited given ongoing clouds/precipitation, above-average low-level
moisture and strong shear may aid organized convection and some
severe risk. Have maintained the Marginal Risk across
southern/central AZ to account for this possibility, but confidence
in higher coverage of severe thunderstorms was too low to include
greater severe probabilities at this time.

...South Florida...
Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
across south FL in association with a weak mid-level wave. The 12Z
observed sounding from MFL showed modest winds through low/mid
levels and weak deep-layer shear, but cool temperatures at mid/upper
levels. This may support occasionally strong convection capable of
producing gusty winds this afternoon, but organized severe
thunderstorms still appear unlikely.


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