SPC Oct 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected this evening into tonight over parts of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated large hail
may also occur in the southern Great Lakes.

...Southern and Central Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an anticyclonic flow pattern in
place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with southwesterly
mid-level flow from the Desert Southwest into the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from near
the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into north-central Missouri. A
1007 mb low is analyzed over the northeastern Texas Panhandle.
Low-convergence is maximized along the front over the central
Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The convergence
axis extends southward into the Low Rolling Plains of northwest
Texas, where a cluster of storms is also ongoing. Ahead of the
convergence axis, surface dewpoints are in upper 60s and lower 70s F
over much of the southern and central Plains, which is contributing
to moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE mostly in
the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range.

In addition to the instability,the WSR-88D VWP at Wichita, KS has
0-6 km shear near 35 knots with 40 to 45 knots of southwesterly flow
in the mid-levels. Some directional shear is present in the boundary
layer. This environment will support a threat for supercells with
cells that remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of large
hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Severe wind
gusts are expected to become the primary severe threat as the
primary mode becomes linear, later this evening.

Further south into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the latest
WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has about 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. The RAP
also has steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range.
This should support supercells with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts.

...Southern Great Lakes...
A minor shortwave trough appears to be moving into the western Great
Lakes early this evening. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms have
developed over far southern Wisconsin. The storms will track
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes this evening into
the overnight. The RAP currently shows an axis of instability
analyzed from western Illinois northeastward into the southwestern
Great Lakes. Along and near this axis, RAP forecast soundings late
this evening have MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg with effective shear near
40 knots. This may be enough for an isolated large hail threat, with
the stronger elevated storms.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2026


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SPC Oct 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts,
and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into
tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest
Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley...
Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a
very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX)
streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a
front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower
MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The
frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after
dark.

Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute
to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and
south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and
southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective
inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm
development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late
afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells
early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger
thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the
early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley.

Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change.
However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a
level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a
risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX
Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain
and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear
despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few
small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of
supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The
severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing
nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although
clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

..Smith/Hart.. 10/13/2026


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SPC Oct 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.

...Southern High Plains through the south-central Plains into the
Midwest...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a belt of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Plains, situated between a slow-moving upper low over the western
Great Basin and expansive upper ridging centered over the upper
TX/western LA coast. Based on recent mesoanalysis, the strongest
portion of this southwesterly flow currently extends from the
southern AZ/NM border into south-central CO, colocated with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Recent surface analysis places a
pair of lows just downstream of this stronger flow aloft, one over
southeast CO and the other over central KS. A cold front connects
these two lows and continues northeastward from the central KS low
to another low over northern Lake Michigan. Airmass south of this
low is very moist, with upper 60s reaching into south-central KS and
low 70s dewpoints reaching up through central OK.

Expectation is for the embedded shortwave trough to progress quickly
northeastward today, reaching the central High Plains by late this
afternoon before continuing northeastward through the central Plains
this evening. As it does, the frontal zone across KS will sharpen
and initially southwesterly surface winds will back, becoming more
southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly) by the late
afternoon. Strong heating is anticipated along and south of the
front as well, with afternoon temperatures in the low 90s. Any
boundary-layer mixing will be offset by continued low-level moisture
advection, with afternoon dewpoints likely remaining in the mid to
upper 60s along the front in KS and east of the dryline in the
eastern TX Panhandle. These conditions are expected to result in
airmass destabilization around 21Z. Lapse rates will be not be
overly steep, but warm and moist low-levels will still result in
moderate to strong buoyancy.

Increasing convergence along the front and dryline within this
destabilized and buoyant airmass is forecast to result in convective
initiation. The strongest mid-level flow will be displaced north and
west of the frontal zone, but mid-level flow along and south of the
front should still be strong enough to support moderate deep-layer
vertical shear and the potential for an initially supercellular
storm mode. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be
the primary hazards. A few gusts from 65 to 75 mph are possible.
Tornado potential will remain low, but ample low-level moisture
coupled with an increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening
could result in a tornado or two near the front. Modest upscale
growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and
western/southern IL. However, the severe threat should become more
isolated with time given increasing nocturnal stabilization and
widespread storm interactions.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although
clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a brief tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/13/2026


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SPC Oct 13, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.

...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly
east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a
lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central
High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee
cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary
front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late
afternoon.

Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong
heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon,
along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and
along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development
is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least
isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High
Plains.

Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level
low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell
development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are
expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in
low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or
two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be
possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern
IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to
increasing nocturnal stabilization with time.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the
Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will
move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation
will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast
of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich
low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and
southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and
lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature
will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection,
though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due
to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and
possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based
storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the
threat remains low at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026


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