Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and
evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into
Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a
deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow
extending across the central/northern US within the base of a
broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area
of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.
At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day
across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA.
As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this
boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late
afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the
dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat
will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more
isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the
dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.
...Central Plains...
South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into
southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with
strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm
front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and
cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in
Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep
layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large
to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The
Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for
potential for development into this region and continuation of the
large to very large hail threat.
With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.
...Northern California/Oregon Coasts...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late
morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland
overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this
potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing
to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
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