SPC Feb 4, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/04/2026


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SPC Feb 4, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning surface analysis places a cold front pushing southeast
across the northeast Gulf Coast southwestward through the Gulf of
America. As an upper trough over the lower MO Valley/southern Great
Plains pivots southeast into the central Gulf Coast, it will drive
the front into central portions of the FL Peninsula late tonight.
Scant buoyancy mainly over the FL Panhandle vicinity this morning
may yield a few weak thunderstorms before this activity diminishes
as it moves east into a more stable airmass. Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions for thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/04/2026


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SPC Feb 4, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface observations show a cold front advancing south
into the northwestern Gulf/lower MS River Valley. This feature is
expected to continue southeastward over the next 24 hours amid
building high pressure across the central CONUS. Despite seasonal
moisture in place along the Gulf Coast, warm mid-level
temperatures/poor lapse rates will largely limit much appreciable
buoyancy. However, forecast soundings suggest sufficient MUCAPE for
isolated thunderstorms may develop within the pre-frontal air mass
by late morning/early afternoon across the northern Gulf into parts
of southern AL and the FL Panhandle. Given the poor thermodynamic
environment, severe/organized convection is not expected, and any
appreciable lightning threat to land should diminish after 00 UTC.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/04/2026


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SPC Feb 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations
extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western
LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the
northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but
the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy
heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along
the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm
intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for
organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic
conditions.

..Moore.. 02/04/2026


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