SPC Apr 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned
low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026


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SPC Apr 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast,
with upper ridging persisting over the Northwest, and a
low-amplitude impulse impinging on the Southwest this evening.
Across the Northwest and Southwest, colder air aloft is supporting
scant buoyancy, which will continue to promote the potential for a
couple of lightning flashes through early tonight. Thunderstorms
continue to benefit from a moist, unstable environment across the
central and southern FL Peninsula. Storms should gradually weaken
this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Squitieri.. 04/07/2026


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SPC Apr 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026


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SPC Apr 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler
temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.

...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the
slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that
severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026


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