SPC Oct 11, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across parts of North Carolina and
Virginia through the late afternoon. Additional storms with
isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and Four Corners region.

...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern
Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to
visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/11/2026


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SPC Oct 11, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered
over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this
cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is
delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm
currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward
to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward
across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle.
Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently
extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the
warm sector.

Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward
across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before
continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast
overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point
lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well.
This progression will result in northward advection of the warm
sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front
pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit
heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm
sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the
region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will
persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for
rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a
result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are
possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and
shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast
NC into central/southeast VA.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time,
another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest.
Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong
mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the
northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the
remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well.

Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned
moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to
mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense
bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability
tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early
afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border
intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate
hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic
environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep
any tornado threat isolated and brief.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/11/2026


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SPC Oct 11, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect
northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where
dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina
Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower
elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia
early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh
northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved
hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that
remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening
as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern
Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak
instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor
as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into
southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from
the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong
deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026


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SPC Oct 11, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat will be
possible this evening across parts of the Carolinas. A few severe
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias will continue to move northward across the
Tennessee Valley this evening. In the eastern part of the system,
scattered convection with little lightning activity is currently
ongoing from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas.
This convection is located along and near the axis of a low-level
jet. Surface analysis has dewpoints over much of eastern Georgia and
southern South Carolina in the 70s F. Within this moist airmass, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Columbia, South Carolina has a looped
hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This
strong low-level shear will support a tornado threat this evening
into the overnight with rotating cells that remain semi-discrete,
mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North
Carolina.

...Desert Southwest...
Tropical Storm Rachel, in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave
trough, will move toward the northern part of Baja California this
evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will continue
across parts of the Desert Southwest. Over southwestern Arizona,
surface dewpoints will continue to increase into the mid to upper
60s F, aiding destabilization this evening with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1000 J/kg. In addition, large-scale ascent will increase as
the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. In
response to the lift, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
and move northeastward across southern and western Arizona this
evening. The mid-level jet will also create moderate to strong
deep-layer shear sufficient for isolated severe storms. A few severe
wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2026


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