Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered
over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this
cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is
delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm
currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward
to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward
across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle.
Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently
extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the
warm sector.
Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward
across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before
continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast
overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point
lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well.
This progression will result in northward advection of the warm
sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front
pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit
heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm
sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the
region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will
persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for
rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a
result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are
possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and
shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast
NC into central/southeast VA.
...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time,
another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest.
Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong
mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the
northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the
remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well.
Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned
moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to
mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense
bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability
tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early
afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border
intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate
hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic
environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep
any tornado threat isolated and brief.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/11/2026
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