SPC Oct 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado
threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic .

...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Early morning surface observations and regional radar imagery show a
wavy outflow boundary from southern IL across southeast MO, northern
AR, and eastern/central/southwest OK into the TX South Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this outflow, but
predominantly south of the primary cold front that extends from the
northern TX Panhandle east-northeastward across northwest and
north-central OK and then northeastward through southeast KS,
central MO, and northern IL. Southerly low to mid-level flow is
expected to persist throughout the day, and the associated warm-air
advection across the outflow boundary will likely result in showers
and thunderstorms continuing from the TX Panhandle eastward across
western and central OK for most of the day. Southward progression on
the outflow will slow this morning, with the boundary eventually
returning northward as a warm front later this evening. The cold
front is forecast to remain stationary for much of the period.

When and where the outflow boundary ends its forward progression is
uncertain, which introduces uncertainty regarding where the best
severe potential will exist today. The portion of the outflow
boundary across the southern High Plains appears to already have
lost much of its character, so there is relatively higher confidence
in the location of the severe potential across that region.
Expectation here is for daytime heating to destabilize the airmass
east of the stalled outflow where temperatures could reach the mid
80s amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Moderate buoyancy and effective
shear from 40 to 50 kt will support initial supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Upscale growth into one or
more linear bowing segments is possible with time. Primary threat
will transition to damaging wind gusts as this occurs.

A more complex and uncertain scenario exists farther north from
northwest TX into east-central/southeast OK. Isolated strong to
severe storms are possible along and south of the outflow boundary.
The strongest buoyancy is expected across south-central/southeast OK
where mid 70s dewpoints will remain in place. As previously
mentioned, the outflow is expected to retreat back northward as an
effective warm front later this afternoon and evening. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible as this occurs as well as later
this evening as eastward-progressing linear clusters move into this
moist and unstable airmass. A strengthening low-level jet will
support a low-probability tornado risk with any more cellular warm
sector development this evening, particularly across southwest into
south-central OK where vertically veering profiles are anticipated.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast MO and southern
IL are forecast to continue eastward today. Daytime heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE
approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. The ongoing storms
may intensify, with an increase in coverage possible as well.
Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening
west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of
deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts into evening.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/14/2026


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SPC Oct 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado
threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be
possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place across much of
the south-central U.S. today, as a large-scale trough and low move
through the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward this morning across northern Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle. Numerous thunderstorms will be likely this morning
near the front. The effective boundary is expected to be further
south, which will shift the effective destabilization further south
as well. By early afternoon, an axis of moderate instability is
forecast to be located from west Texas northeastward into
southwestern and south-central Oklahoma, where MLCAPE will likely
range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Areas that destabilize significantly
will have potential for severe storms.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by mid to late
afternoon have supercell wind profiles, with gradually veering winds
with height in the low-levels and about 50 knots of southwesterly
flow in the mid-levels. This will support supercell development with
storms that form in the stronger instability and remain discrete.
Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and perhaps a
tornado or two. During the evening, a transition to linear mode is
expected, but a threat for embedded supercells will continue. The
more intense line segments could produce severe wind gusts,
potentially above 70 mph.

...Ozarks/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern half
of the nation today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley today. To the south of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will
likely result in pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. In
spite of limited large-scale ascent, increasing low-level
convergence near the boundary will result in scattered convective
initiation. Deep-layer shear near the front may be strong enough for
a few isolated severe storms in areas that destabilize the most. The
primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/14/2026


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SPC Oct 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected this evening into tonight over parts of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated large hail
may also occur in the southern Great Lakes.

...Southern and Central Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an anticyclonic flow pattern in
place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with southwesterly
mid-level flow from the Desert Southwest into the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from near
the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into north-central Missouri. A
1007 mb low is analyzed over the northeastern Texas Panhandle.
Low-convergence is maximized along the front over the central
Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The convergence
axis extends southward into the Low Rolling Plains of northwest
Texas, where a cluster of storms is also ongoing. Ahead of the
convergence axis, surface dewpoints are in upper 60s and lower 70s F
over much of the southern and central Plains, which is contributing
to moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE mostly in
the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range.

In addition to the instability,the WSR-88D VWP at Wichita, KS has
0-6 km shear near 35 knots with 40 to 45 knots of southwesterly flow
in the mid-levels. Some directional shear is present in the boundary
layer. This environment will support a threat for supercells with
cells that remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of large
hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Severe wind
gusts are expected to become the primary severe threat as the
primary mode becomes linear, later this evening.

Further south into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the latest
WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has about 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. The RAP
also has steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range.
This should support supercells with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts.

...Southern Great Lakes...
A minor shortwave trough appears to be moving into the western Great
Lakes early this evening. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms have
developed over far southern Wisconsin. The storms will track
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes this evening into
the overnight. The RAP currently shows an axis of instability
analyzed from western Illinois northeastward into the southwestern
Great Lakes. Along and near this axis, RAP forecast soundings late
this evening have MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg with effective shear near
40 knots. This may be enough for an isolated large hail threat, with
the stronger elevated storms.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2026


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SPC Oct 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts,
and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into
tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest
Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley...
Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a
very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX)
streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a
front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower
MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The
frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after
dark.

Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute
to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and
south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and
southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective
inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm
development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late
afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells
early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger
thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the
early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley.

Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change.
However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a
level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a
risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX
Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain
and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear
despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few
small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of
supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The
severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing
nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although
clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

..Smith/Hart.. 10/13/2026


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