SPC Mar 28, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Smith/Bunting.. 03/28/2026


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SPC Mar 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface analysis shows an extensive area of high
pressure covering much of the central and eastern CONUS, the only
exception being across eastern MT where a weak lee low is in place.
Another weak low exists over southern NV, along an inverted trough
that extends from the central Gulf of California into central NV.

A weak frontal boundary separates the dry and stable continental
airmass associated with the high pressure from the more moist,
tropical airmass over the Gulf and central/southern FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support showers and
thunderstorms along and south of this boundary during the afternoon
and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and a
westward-progressing sea breeze. Limited buoyancy and weak shear
should preclude storm organization, keeping the severe risk
isolated. Even so, relatively high LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support strong downbursts. Thunderstorms are not
expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/28/2026


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SPC Mar 28, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
Northwest mid-level flow will continue across much of the central
and eastern U.S. today, as a cold front advances southward across
Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible south of the front
within a moist airmass across parts of south Florida and the Florida
Keys this afternoon. No severe threat is forecast, and no
thunderstorms are expected over the remainder of the continental
U.S.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/28/2026


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SPC Mar 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening over parts of
the Carolinas and southern Virginia, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes
region tonight, as a cold front advances southward through the
Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible near and behind the
front this evening. No severe threat is forecast with this activity
or over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2026


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