SPC Feb 21, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026


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SPC Feb 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
Clustered bands of thunderstorms have increased across east-central
Mississippi and central Alabama into northwest/west-central Georgia
during the predawn hours. These elevated storms are occurring on the
immediate cool side of a front that is draped
west/southwest-east/northeast across the region. These storms may
further increase and organize early today. The aggregating storm
mode and residually warm mid-level temperatures/modest mid-level
lapse rates should tend to temper hail potential. However, the
storms may become surface-based with time owing to diurnal heating
cycle and potential gradual cold pool-related storm propagation
toward the warm/moist side of the front where upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will persist through peak boundary layer mixing. This
scenario will potentially contribute to damaging wind potential into
late morning, and more so this afternoon across southeast Alabama
into southwest/south-central Georgia. Additional strong/severe storm
development may occur farther west later this afternoon across a
broader part of far southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle near the
front.

Low-level shear is initially strong but low-level flow is veered
west-southwesterly and will tend to weaken over time. Regardless,
long semi-unidirectional hodographs, particularly above 2.5 km AGL,
will persist with 50+ kt effective shear. This will support
organized storm modes potentially including bowing segments and
possibly a couple of splitting supercells.

Overall, damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary
hazards, with some tornado potential as well, albeit relatively
limited and dependent on warm-sector development. While short-term
uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk,
areas such as southeast Alabama and southwest/south-central Georgia
will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
categorical Slight Risk upgrade, mainly for damaging wind potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/21/2026


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SPC Feb 21, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is advancing east across eastern CO/NM
early this evening. In response, 850mb flow is beginning to increase
across the southern Plains. Latest satellite/radar imagery support
this with weak convection now developing in response to low-level
warm advection across southern OK/AR. Later this evening, lightning
is expected to develop with this activity downstream across the
lower MS Valley, but forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE/lapse rates
will be a bit too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe
hail. As 850mb flow becomes more westerly late tonight, scattered
convection will spread/develop across the Gulf States, especially
along/north of the synoptic front which will be draped from central
MS/AL into SC.

..Darrow.. 02/21/2026


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SPC Feb 20, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across North Carolina was removed with this
update. Convection is moving offshore this hour, with minimal
development expected through the rest of the afternoon.

See previous discussion for more information on potential for
thunderstorm development overnight across MS/AL/GA.

..Thornton.. 02/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing
southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.

Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.

...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.


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