SPC Jun 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern Alberta,
with several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow
over MT/WY/ID. At the surface, the primary cold front will move
eastward into the central Dakotas and northwest NE by afternoon,
providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.

A broad cluster of weakening thunderstorms is occurring this morning
near the NE/SD border. This activity has resulted in an outflow
boundary that will lift northward into SD this afternoon. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg are expected in the
region along/north of the outflow boundary, with forecast soundings
showing favorable deep-layer shear for supercell storms. These
storms will persist through the evening, affecting eastern SD,
southeast ND, and western MN. Large hail is the primary risk early,
with a transition to more linear structures during the evening and
an attendant damaging wind risk. Recent model guidance suggests a
notable low-level jet in this region during the late
afternoon/evening, supportive of some risk of maintaining discrete
modes and increasing the risk of a few tornadoes.

...Elsewhere...
Farther south, widely scattered strong storms are expected later
today across the central High Plains, and southwest TX/southern NM.
Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/03/2026


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SPC Jun 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
The upper low will move into the Canadian Prairie today. A modest
mid-level jet will overspread North Dakota into northern South
Dakota. A cold front will move south and east through the Dakotas. A
surface high in the Great Lakes region will promote moisture
advection into the High Plains.

...Northern Plains...
A modest low-level jet (45 kt at KLNX) is promoting a small cluster
of convection along the Nebraska/South Dakota border early this
morning. The duration of this activity is not certain, but it is
possible that it could last until daybreak when the low-level jet is
forecast to weaken. At a minimum, cloud cover from this activity may
delay heating in some areas. Models still bring low 60s F dewpoints
into South Dakota by the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be
strongest in North Dakota where the upper low will be. Modest ascent
will still occur into South Dakota along the surface trough/front.
40-50 kt of shear will promote organized supercells, at least
initially. There does appear to be a small corridor where a discrete
mode could be maintained longer where the shear vectors will be more
orthogonal the surface trough. There, very-large hail would be more
probable. Overall, a transition to a linear mode is expected to
occur within a couple of hours of initiation as the front moves
southeast. Severe winds would become more likely as this occurs. The
tornado threat will be greatest with the initial discrete storms.
The low-level jet does modestly increase during the evening when a
linear mode should dominate. A QLCS circulation or two is possible,
but the wind threat should be the main concern.

...Central into southern Plains...
Weak convectively generated MCVs are apparent in water vapor imagery
in the Southwest. As these move slowly eastward into this
afternoon, perhaps congealing, they will interact with a surface
trough/stalled boundary in the High Plains. Deep-layer winds will
otherwise be weak, but the MCV may locally enhance shear. Low to mid
60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg despite fairly
modest mid-level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable
of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur
which would locally increase the threat for strong/severe winds.

...Southwest Texas...
Early morning convection appears possible within the region. The
spatial extent/intensity of this activity will play a large role in
whether stronger convection can develop later in the afternoon/early
evening. Should cloud cover/outflow influence be minimal, strong
heating southwest of the region along with moist influx from the
southeast will promote thunderstorms within the Davis Mountains/Big
Bend. Deep-layer flow will only be modest, but isolated large hail
and severe gusts would be possible.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/03/2026


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SPC Jun 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
tornado or two are possible this evening primarily in parts of the
northern Plains.

...01Z Update...
The strongest storms this evening are ongoing in parts of the
Dakotas and far eastern Wyoming. The upper trough will continue to
provide forcing for ascent along with a modest increase in the
low-level jet. Storms have generally begun to grow upscale. Severe
wind gusts are likely the primary threat the remainder of the
evening. That being said, deep layer shear is strong enough to
support occasional supercell structures which would be capable of
large hail, potentially to around 2 inches. A tornado or two is
conditionally possible, but confidence is not overly high given the
amount of outflow and gradual increase in MLCIN anticipated.
Clusters of storms in the southern High Plains will remain capable
of isolated wind damage and hail. Some activity may be able to push
farther east this evening. Otherwise, isolated wind damage will be
possible for another hour or two with activity in Central Texas and
South Florida.

..Wendt.. 06/03/2026


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SPC Jun 2, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.

Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level
easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.

...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over
central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/02/2026


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