SPC Feb 25, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority
of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an
anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay.
An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern
High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will
influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across
higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A
few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this
afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer
environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely.
Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward
toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist
advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak
buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated
convection.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/25/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TR8sQf

SPC Feb 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central
Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.

...Discussion...
Within a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, a low-amplitude
midlevel impulse will advance southeastward from the northern Plains
to the middle MS Valley through the period. Despite limited
boundary-layer moisture through this corridor, steepening lapse
rates and focused ascent accompanying the impulse will support
southeastward-spreading convection with isolated lightning potential
across the central Plains toward the middle MS Valley during the
afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Enhanced low-level flow
within a well-mixed boundary layer may promote locally strong gusts
with initial convection over the central High Plains, though weak
buoyancy should limit severe potential. Farther east, isolated
thunderstorms are also possible within a developing warm-advection
wing over the lower OH and TN Valleys late in the period.

..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/25/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TR8WhW

SPC Feb 25, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Discussion...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, several subtle/low-amplitude perturbations will overspread
northern CA and the Intermountain West tonight. While associated
cooling aloft amid a deep saturated profile will yield weak elevated
instability, any thunder potential will remain limited/isolated.

..Weinman.. 02/25/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TR8HHL

SPC Feb 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.

..Thornton.. 02/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge over the southwest US today will yield
relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the CONUS. No
organized thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Nevertheless, an
isolated lightning flash or two will be possible from central CA
into the Great Basin region.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TR86Mr