SPC Feb 15, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026


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SPC Feb 15, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much
of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast.
Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the
northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing
moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold
front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across
central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.

The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a
notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which
has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant
buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually
increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level
moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to
mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear
due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is
expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details.
Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the
greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning
late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity
moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA.
The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an
eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few
mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief
tornadoes are possible.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026


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SPC Feb 15, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of
northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,
with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt
will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer
shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL
into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will
stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday
morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,
strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result
in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few
tornadoes throughout the day.

...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late
Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with
the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward
to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into
central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds
will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,
though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture
with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.

Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the
line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with
renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during
the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly
robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with
the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will
support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well
as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with
a few QLCS tornadoes possible.

..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026


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SPC Feb 15, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from
eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes
along with scattered damaging winds will be possible.

...Sabine into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from TX toward the lower MS
Valley through Sunday morning, providing lift and cooling aloft. At
the surface, low pressure will move from the ArkLaTex area into
northern MS, with a cold front trailing southwest from the low.

Ahead of the cold front, the air mass will continue to moisten as a
warm front lifts northward across southern LA and eventually
southern MS and AL late. Behind the warm front, dewpoints will
likely rise into the mid 60s F, aided by veering low-level winds and
40-50 kt at 850 mb.

The combination of increasing low-level shear will likely result in
effective SRH values over 200 m2/s2, perhaps near 300 m2/s2 where
non-zero low-level buoyancy exists. Given the rapid progression of
the upper trough, a squall line is likely to be maintained
overnight, possibly reaching southwest AL by 12Z. Both damaging
winds and a few embedded/QLCS tornadoes will be possible as this
line interacts with the increasingly moist air mass. The main
mitigating factor to overall magnitude of severe will be the
instability values, with MLCAPE averaging 500-750 J/kg overnight.

For more information see mesoscale discussions #0078 and #0079.

..Jewell.. 02/15/2026


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