SPC Mar 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI...ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. AN
ENHANCED RISK IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible, including the risk for a few strong tornadoes
and very large hail.

...Southern Great Lakes...

Strong northern stream will gradually sag south across the northern
Rockies as a short-wave trough ejects across MT/WY. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern portion of the northern Plains
by 11/12z as a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across northwest IA
into southern MN. Late timing of this feature is not particularly
conducive for assisting daytime convection downstream across
northern IL/IN region, as height falls will lag until the latter
half of the period. Even so, latest model guidance suggests a weak
surface low will evolve along the front and track across northern MO
into northwest IL by early evening, then toward southern Lake MI by
midnight.

Boundary-layer heating should prove instrumental in destabilization
ahead of the surface low and forecast soundings suggest convective
temperatures may be breached after 21z from northern MO into
northern IL. Strong deep-layer shear favors supercell development
and this activity will spread east, along/south of a warm front that
should extend across northern IL into southern MI. Temperature
gradient across this boundary will be sharp so any supercells that
spread north of the wind shift will quickly become elevated and pose
mainly a hail risk. Environmental conditions south of the front
should be characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg with strong
0-3km SRH. Tornadoes and large hail are certainly possible with
warm-sector supercells. Parameters favor the potential for strong
tornadoes. This activity will spread east during the overnight
hours, possibly as far east as portions of northeast OH, as westerly
flow strengthens across this portion of the Great Lakes.

...Southern Plains...

Strong upper low is clearly evident on water-vapor imagery over the
central Baja Peninsula early this morning. This low is ejecting
east-northeast in line with latest model guidance and should advance
into north central Mexico by 18z, then into far west TX by early
evening as it begins to open up. Strong boundary layer heating will
be noted across northeast Mexico, north along the TX/NM border into
western KS. As a result, steep 0-3km lapse rates will develop ahead
of the approaching trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent should
overspread the dry line around 21z and supercells should quickly
evolve as midlevel temperatures will cool quickly immediately ahead
of the trough. Very large hail is possible with initial supercell
development before strong forcing encourages a more linear evolution
and possible elongated MCS. Strong winds may accompany this squall
line.

Latest model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance may eject
well ahead of the primary low into south central TX. Deep convection
is possible ahead of this feature, but the primary concern will be
some hail and gusts.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/10/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TRPJjC

SPC Mar 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the
lower Mississippi Valley to northwest Georgia.

...01z Update...

Gulf State: Convection that developed over southeast OK/AR earlier
this morning has grown upscale as it spread across the Mid-South
region. This MCS is now spreading across northern AL and appears to
be gradually expanding in areal extent. Earlier supercell structures
have mostly merged within the broader precip shield, and latest MESH
cores support this with hail signatures primarily below severe
levels. As the MCS propagates downstream, locally damaging winds,
and marginal severe hail will be the primary concerns.

Farther south across the lower MS Valley, both JAN and LIX exhibit
strong deep layer shear and modest-strong buoyancy. Scattered robust
convection persists along this corridor, driven in part by weak
low-level warm advection and diurnal heating. For the next few
hours, isolated severe will continue within this environment, but
nocturnal cooling should lead to few storms by mid evening, along
with weaker convection.

Southern AZ: Scattered convection has developed along the northern
periphery of an upper low advancing east across northwest Mexico.
This activity will continue spreading north this evening as
favorable large-scale ascent is noted near the international border.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker updrafts and the overall
risk of damaging winds/large hail should gradually wane with time.

..Darrow.. 03/10/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TRP6XM

SPC Mar 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.

...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening...
A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and
will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening.
Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through
the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading
eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the
eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor
with minimal convective inhibition.

Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat
organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms
as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially
reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the
cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some
increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across
northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible
immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a
maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind
profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail
(some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in
low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level
moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from
the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a
couple of tornadoes.

Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest
along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a
conditional threat for large hail.

...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening...
High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent
immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja.
Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear
will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail
and gusts approaching 60 mph.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TRNvPT

SPC Mar 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex and Mid-South
through the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving through the TX Panhandle, embedded within the westerly
flow aloft well downstream from an upper low off the Baja California
Coast. This shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South by this evening and the
southern Appalachians by early tomorrow. Enhanced mid-level flow
(i.e. 500 mb winds around 50 kt) will accompany this wave, spreading
eastward in tandem with the progression of the wave.

Recent surface analysis shows a relatively moist airmass already in
place from the southern Plains through much of the Southeast. Mid
60s dewpoints currently extend from the TX Coastal Plain through
east TX and over much of LA. This moist airmass is expected to
advect quickly northward/northeastward throughout the day, largely
in response to strengthening low to mid-level flow downstream of the
increasing westerlies across the Plains. Ascent attendant to the
embedded shortwave coupled with the increasing moisture and buoyancy
will likely result in thunderstorm development from the Arklatex and
Mid-South through much the Southeast.

...Arklatex/Mid-South through the Southeast...
A diffuse stationary front currently extends from east-central OK
into northern AL before shifting more northeastward across eastern
TN. Modest warm-air advection is ongoing throughout the western
portion of this boundary, supported by the increasing low to
mid-level flow just ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast OK, and this is likely the beginning of a thunderstorm
cluster that is expected to develop from the Arklatex into the
Mid-South vicinity this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear suggest some hail is possible with this
early activity. Recently issued MCD #0177 provides additional
information for this early morning activity.

Most of the guidance suggests that the resulting thunderstorm
cluster becomes increasingly organized with time, growing upscale
into an MCS before then progressing across northern MS and northern
AL. The preceding airmass should be moderately moist and buoyant,
with dewpoints likely in the mid 60s and MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500
J/kg. Moderate vertical shear should be in place as well, with the
resulting conditions supportive of MCS maintenance through the
afternoon. The same conditions will support robust updrafts capable
of large hail and damaging gusts. Additional, more cellular activity
is possible in the wake of the main MCS, with conditions remaining
favorable for hail. Overall tornado potential appears to be limited
by the likely linear mode as well as the relatively weak low-level
flow. Even so, the modest low-level curvature expected supports a
low-probability tornado threat.

...Southern AZ...
A strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z before shifting into northwest Mexico by the end
of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ
within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Thermodynamic
profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north
across this region. Forecast soundings show limited buoyancy,
suggesting this activity should struggle to attain severe levels.
Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest,
most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/09/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TRNXYQ