SPC Apr 29, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern
Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional
strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and
southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and Midwest today.
Within southern stream flow, a weak shortwave impulse will migrate
through westerly flow aloft from Texas to the GA/SC coast. This will
result in enhanced westerly flow across the southern U.S. and the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from northern IN southwestward into central TX
this morning. This front will develop southward across TX and
southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast through the
period. The northern extent of the front will shift east across the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This surface boundary will be a focus
for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the
afternoon/evening.

...TX to GA/SC Coast...

A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface front,
particularly across TX where dewpoints in the 70s are common.
Heating into the 80s and 90 of this very moist airmass will result
in a corridor of moderate to strong MLCAPE. The surface boundary
will be the main forcing mechanism for convection across TX and
storm coverage may remain isolated. Further east into the Lower MS
Valley/Southeast, a shortwave impulse will provide modest forcing
for ascent in addition to the southeast sagging cold front.

Isolated supercells across central TX will pose a risk for large
hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail. Uncertainty concerning
storm coverage and capping across TX precludes an upgrade to Sight
risk at this time. Additional storms are expected to develop closer
to the Sabine Valley and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm clusters may congeal into one or more linear segment
and move across MS/AL/GA during the late afternoon into evening
hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough emanating from the Great Lakes/Midwest
upper trough will overspread the region during the afternoon/evening
in tandem with the eastward advancing cold front. Modest boundary
layer moisture is forecast across the region, with dewpoints
generally in the 50s to near 60 F. Modest heating will result in
weak destabilization (generally 500-750 J/kg or less). Despite weak
instability, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast
soundings. This should aid in at least transient organization of
stronger updrafts with a wind and hail risk. While instability and
moisture will be marginal, 0-1 SRH will approach 150 m2/s2 in
proximity to a weak surface low and a brief tornado could also
occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 04/29/2026


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SPC Apr 29, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the
ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail (2+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...01z Update...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast TX into
AR, MS and vicinity. A mix of storms modes, including supercells and
bowing segments will persist into the nighttime hours. Areas of
large to very large hail (2+ inches with strongest cells), a few
tornadoes (a couple could be strong), and damaging wind gusts remain
possible over the next several hours.

The main outlook changes were to reduce severe probabilities across
areas where storm potential has diminished, particularly for the
Lever 4 of 5 (Moderate) risk area in TX where storms have moved
southeast out of that area and redevelopment to the north appears
unlikely.

..Leitman.. 04/29/2026


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SPC Apr 28, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is
anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells
including very large hail potential along with some damaging
wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through
early/mid-evening.

First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress
east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at
late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development
seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis
and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the
possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated
severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from
northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the
Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a
surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer
warming.

Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable
airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and
near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is
beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in
mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense
surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple
point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon,
where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong
deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple
intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur
with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable
environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though
low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and
Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term
details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms
with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this
same region late today, or more so tonight.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026


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SPC Apr 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and
central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject
eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS
Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread
northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a
low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the
lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a
weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain
over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big
Bend region.

A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the
ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning
warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX.
This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and
low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these
supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very
large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread
east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual
clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into
the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses
greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.

Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the
triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this
afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for
multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches)
may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very
favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even
though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern
Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In
its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift
northward some through the day, with the greater instability
forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse
rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through
the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to
numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely.
Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection
across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat
still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026


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