SPC Oct 10, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into
the Carolinas.

...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.

...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/10/2026


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SPC Oct 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert
Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
Isaias underwent a rapid transition to a post-tropical cyclone after
landfall Friday evening, with a notable baroclinic zone now in place
throughout its eastern periphery. The low-level center of this
system is currently over southeast AL, with a warm front extending
east-northeastward from this center across central GA, central SC,
and eastern NC. General expectation is for this former tropical
cyclone to spend the first half of the period completing its
transition to a mid-latitude cyclone over MS/AL before then
progressing northeastward across the TN Valley later tonight. The
surface low is expected to drift northeastward as the system
matures, centering over northern AL by 00Z. As it does, its warm
sector, which is characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints, will
expand northwestward into more of GA and the Carolinas. This
increase in low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) despite widespread cloudiness and limited
heating. Low-level confluence within the warm sector, augmented by
modest but persistent large-scale ascent, is expected to support
thunderstorm development throughout the period, particularly during
the afternoon.

The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced west of the
greater low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Even so,
southeasterly low-level flow veering to southerly in the mid/upper
levels will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for
occasional organization/intensification of the predominantly
multicellular structures. Several brief tornadoes could result
within any of these more organized storms. Convectively augmented
damaging wind gusts are possible as well. Greatest severe potential
is expected along the GA/SC border vicinity between 21Z and 00Z.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Complex synoptic evolution is anticipated over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, just upstream of southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, as
Tropical Storm Rachel interacts with a compact mid-latitude cyclone.
The interaction will increase the northeastward motion of the
tropical cyclone, while also resulting an expanded low to mid-level
wind field. Additionally, this evolution will favor advection of
notable low-level moisture into the Lower CO River Valley and
adjacent southern/central AZ. Overall thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase throughout the day into tonight. Deep-layer
vertical shear will be stronger enough for supercells, a few of
which could produce strong wind gusts. Additionally, surface low
associated with the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the
Lower CO River Valley region after 06Z. Increase low-level winds and
moisture will support a low-probability tornado threat.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/10/2026


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SPC Oct 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the
Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move
north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface
temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability
this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to
40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The
tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the
eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja
California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm
Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will
increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and
southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This
combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift
associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered
thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a
mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the
evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer
shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can
develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026


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SPC Oct 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will move inland this
evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with
a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...DISCUSSION...
The center of Hurricane Isaias is currently near the Florida coast.
The primary band of rainfall is north of the Isaias' center over the
western Florida Panhandle. A second rainband extends from the
eastern Florida Panhandle southward along the coast of the
northwestern Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms will continue to form
within these rainbands and move northward over land this evening.
The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle have strong
low-level shear profiles with large looped hodographs. This will
support the development of rotating storms with tornado potential,
mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is
expected to continue through this evening into overnight period,
with the threat gradually moving northward into southeast Alabama
and southwestern Georgia.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2026


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