Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made - namely a slight northward expansion of 5% wind
probabilities to better align with developing convection across
west/southwest NE. Although this convection is fairly weak, severe
wind gusts have been observed across far western NE within the past
hour associated with convectively-augmented downward mixing of
strong flow aloft. The potential for additional severe gusts should
continue through the next several hours downstream. See the previous
discussion below and MCD #118.
..Moore.. 02/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/
...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop.
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong
west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.
Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.
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