SPC Jul 25, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this
afternoon through the evening.

...SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN...
A prominent upper ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies
will feature the southern periphery of appreciably strong mid to
high-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern High Plains and into the north-central states. Late
morning surface analysis shows very hot temperatures ensuing across
western NE into the western half of SD with richer moisture (surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F) located over the eastern half
of NE/SD. Visible-satellite imagery shows some mid to high clouds
across northern WY moving towards the Black Hills. This patch of
clouds appears associated with a weak disturbance forecast to move
into western SD later this afternoon.

Downstream across SD, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates developing as temperatures rise into the 100s F.
Expecting initially isolated to widely scattered storms to develop
near the Black Hills, as convective temperatures are breached.
Models show the gradual development of a cluster moving east across
SD early this evening. Have increased severe-wind probabilities to
account for observational and model-based trends towards an MCS
capable of peak gusts in the 75-90 mph range. This activity will
probably slowly weaken towards the MN/IA/SD border but perhaps
continue into early overnight with a wind threat.

...MT...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely form near the higher
terrain of southern MT later this afternoon with a gradual increase
in storm coverage as this moves east during the early evening. A
hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with the
stronger cores and associated outflow. There is some indication
this activity will cluster and potentially reach parts of
eastern/southeast MT by the late evening.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper
Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Models
continue to show low storm chances as mid-level heights rise through
the late evening. Nonetheless, appreciable heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer will result in strong potential buoyancy later
today into tonight. Elongated hodographs will support organized
storms capable of a wind/hail threat. Given a muted diurnal storm
signal in models, the greater chance for isolated storms appears to
be associated with warm advection activity late tonight.

...Northeast NV/northern UT/eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge.
These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and
northwest Utah with time. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the
stronger downdrafts.

...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona
during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest
enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the
upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to
spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before
convection weakens tonight.

..Smith/Moore.. 07/25/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTjFwT

SPC Jul 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL MT...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SD...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with scattered severe wind gusts are possible across parts of
Montana and South Dakota this afternoon and evening.

...MT into SD and vicinity...
An expansive upper ridge will remain anchored over much of the
southwest and central CONUS through the period. Very hot
temperatures are expected this afternoon from MT into the Dakotas.
Isolated to scattered storms within the hot and well-mixed
environment will result in a broad area of at least isolated
severe-wind potential. 5% wind probabilities have been expanded to
cover this potential, with 15% wind probabilities (equivalent to
categorical Level 2/Slight Risk) added across parts of MT and SD,
where terrain features may enhance storm coverage within the
favorable severe-wind environment.

For parts of western/central MT, convection that develops by
early/mid afternoon near the high terrain is expected to spread
eastward into the hot and well-mixed environment. This convection
may be aided by a low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maximum moving
around the periphery of the upper ridge. Increasing storm coverage
and gradually strengthening mid/upper-level flow may allow for one
or more outflow-driven clusters to develop and spread
east-northeastward into early evening, with a threat of severe
gusts. Localized gusts of 75+ mph cannot be ruled out, especially if
deeper convection is able to spread into areas where very deep
mixing and heating to near/above 100 F occurs prior to storm
arrival.

Farther east, very strong heating is expected across parts of
western/central SD, with temperatures in some areas potentially
rising to near/above 105 F. Low-level moisture will be relatively
sparse, but MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg will be possible where
50s F dewpoints can be maintained within the well-mixed environment.
Initial storm development near the Black Hills will quickly become
outflow dominant as it spreads eastward, with an increasing threat
of severe gusts. Deep-layer shear will be somewhat favorable for
organized convection, and some guidance depicts development of a
persistent cluster or loosely organized MCS that moves eastward
across SD along a weak surface boundary. Should this occur, a
corridor of more organized severe-wind threat (with gusts
potentially near/above 75 mph) will be possible.

...Northern/eastern MN into WI and Upper MI...
Conditional severe potential remains evident across parts of the
Upper Midwest, though confidence regarding storm coverage and timing
remains very low within the weakly forced environment. Moderate to
strong destabilization is possible along/south of a surface front
that is forecast to extend from northeast ND into northern MN/WI by
late afternoon. Effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than
sufficient for storm organization, but most guidance remains rather
muted regarding potential for diurnal storm development. If storms
are able to develop during the afternoon or evening, then a threat
for hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could evolve. Even
if diurnal storm development is limited, vigorous elevated storms
may evolve within a warm-advection regime near/north of the front
late tonight, which would pose a threat for hail and perhaps locally
damaging wind. Confidence remains too low to include more than
Level-1/Marginal Risk equivalent probabilities at this time.

...Northeast NV/northern UT into eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast NV, along the western periphery of the upper ridge. These
storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast ID and northwest
UT with time. Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible with
these storms as they move northeastward through a well-mixed
environment.

...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast AZ during
the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. Modest enhancement
to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the upper ridge may
allow for localized strong to severe gusts to spread westward into
parts of south-central AZ, before convection weakens later Saturday
night.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TThvKs

SPC Jul 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...20z Update Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms ongoing along a differential heating axis
near the international border should continue to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. Aided by increasing synoptic
ascent and deep-layer shear from the approaching upstream
low-amplitude trough and jet, supercells and organized clusters are
likely. Severe hail is expected, with some 2-3+ inches in diameter
possible with the more robust supercells that evolve initially.
Damaging wind gusts are also likely across eastern ND into northern
MN as storms begin to grow upscale. A few significant gusts are
possible given the large buoyancy and plume of steeper low-level
lapse rates apparent to the southwest across ND.

A couple of tornadoes are possible closer to the effective boundary,
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and stronger low-level
shear are expected. A CIG-1 wind area was included where the latest
HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs show greater clustering which could
promote a sustained damaging wind or hail threat into this evening.
See MCD#1622 for short-term information.

...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorms along a weak surface cold front and
sea-breeze boundary across the coast and coastal plain will continue
to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. 5% wind
probabilities were trimmed slightly to the west where storm
coverage/clustering are expected to be lower.

Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes.
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of TX, AZ and ID.
See the previous discussion and active mesoscale discussions for
more information.

..Lyons.. 07/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba. This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest. A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two. Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening. Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential.
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.

...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge. Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts.

...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward. A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain. Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon. A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TThnl2

SPC Jul 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba. This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest. A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two. Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening. Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential.
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.

...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge. Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts.

...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward. A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain. Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon. A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.

..Smith/Moore.. 07/24/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TThd3n