SPC Feb 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/12/2026


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SPC Feb 12, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin Region...

Upper low off the central CA coast will drift southeast through
13/12z as the primary corridor of stronger midlevel flow extends
within the base of the trough into the central Baja Peninsula.
Coldest midlevel temperatures are forecast to extend across CA into
the Great Basin, and cool/steep profiles favor weak destabilization
across this region, especially between 20z-03z, aided by
boundary-layer heating. Forecast soundings support this with MUCAPE
on the order of 200 J/kg. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential
for isolated-scattered convection continue.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/12/2026


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SPC Feb 12, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...01z Update...

Center of upper low is drifting slowly south along the central CA
coast early this evening. The majority of convection has now shifted
into the Great Basin where isolated thunderstorms are currently
noted, primarily across northern NV into northern UT. This activity
is expected to gradually wane later this evening, driven in large
part due to a stabilizing boundary layer.

..Darrow.. 02/12/2026


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SPC Feb 11, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0941 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026/

...SYNOPSIS...
A deepening upper trough over the northeast states will help a cold
front sag southward across GA/SC this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the front, but no severe
storms are anticipated. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and tonight from central CA into much of the
Great Basin.


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