SPC Mar 25, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Relatively dry and stable conditions will be present over most of
the CONUS today, but with several small areas of some concern for
thunderstorms. These include the Pacific Northwest, Northern
Plains, Mid/Upper MS Valley, and FL.

...Florida...
A weak surface front lies across the central FL peninsula, with
strong heating and dewpoints in the 60s leading to moderate
afternoon CAPE. Similar to yesterday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the east-coast sea-breeze and along/south of the
front. Winds aloft are weak, but cool temperatures aloft could be
sufficient for a strong storm or two capable of hail or gusty wind.
The overall threat appears too low to warrant severe probabilities
at this time.

...IL/IN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a zone of weak low-level warm
advection over IA, spreading eastward into IL. Several model
solutions suggest the risk of some lightning activity this afternoon
in this region, although it appears to be rooted in the mid-levels
and unlikely to produce any severe risk. After dark, more active
thunderstorms may develop over eastern IL and much of IN, but weak
instability will continue to limit any organized severe threat.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/25/2026


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SPC Mar 25, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Florida...
Even with nebulous/weak ascent aloft, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the FL
Peninsula along and south of a front. Moderate instability will
develop across parts of central FL with diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass, and occasional gusty winds and small hail could
occur with the stronger cores given the presence of rather cool
mid-level temperatures (around -12 to -14C at 500 mb). However, weak
low/mid-level flow and modest deep-layer shear should generally
limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Low-level moisture will continue to gradually stream northward
across parts of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley into the
Midwest/OH Valley through tonight. Some strengthening of a
west-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast this evening into early
Thursday morning across MO into IL/IN. Most guidance, with the
exception of the NAM (which is probably overdone with its depiction
of low-level moistening and related instability), suggests that
MUCAPE will struggle to exceed 500-750 J/kg. Even with strong
cloud-layer shear, this limited instability should temper the
overall severe hail threat with any elevated convection that may
develop this evening/overnight across IL/IN. Small hail appears
possible, though.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent
northern/central Plains as an upper trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest and strong mid-level flow/large-scale ascent
overspreads these regions. Low-level moisture will be very limited
and MUCAPE is expected to remain meager (no more than 100-300 J/kg).
Even so, some lightning flashes may occur with this convection as it
spreads generally eastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Pacific Northwest...
Isolated, low-topped convection appears possible today mainly across
parts of WA as a mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and strong ascent
associated with a 100+ kt mid-level jet may support occasional
lightning flashes with this activity even though instability will
remain quite weak.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/25/2026


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SPC Mar 25, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may persist for few more hours this evening
across parts of central Florida and late tonight over portions of
coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...Discussion...
A few storms remain this evening along and slightly north of the
cold front in central Florida. Weak to moderate instability remains
across this region and could support these storms for a few more
hours. However, as the boundary layer continues to cool, expect the
storms to weaken over land.

Some lightning is possible late tonight near the Washington coast as
cooling temperatures aloft result in weak instability over the
relatively warm waters off the Washington coast.

..Bentley.. 03/25/2026


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SPC Mar 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of
north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal
Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior thunder areas. Isolated
thunderstorms remain possible across the FL and Olympic Peninsulas
through this evening and late tonight respectively. Weak buoyancy
will preclude a severe risk. See the previous discussion for more
info.

..Lyons.. 03/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
Broad high pressure will dominate the weather over the
central/eastern US today, with a cold front sagging southward across
the FL peninsula. Strong daytime heating and convergence along the
front and the east-coast sea-breeze will aid in the development of
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Cool temperatures aloft
could result in a strong storm or two capable of small hail or gusty
winds. But the overall threat of severe storms appears low.

A strong upper trough and associated mid-level speed max will begin
affecting the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight, with some risk
of lightning flashes over the Olympic peninsula.


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