SPC Feb 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of
thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of
the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and
brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the
afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the
upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving
eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.


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SPC Feb 16, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving
eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026


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SPC Feb 16, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may
produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and
evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At
the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA,
with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong
wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow
convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is
likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through
the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be
likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak
instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors
to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line
cannot be ruled out.

...Interior Valleys...
It appears substantial precipitation will hamper
heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE
evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model
low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears
lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low
probabilities have been removed.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong
wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026


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SPC Feb 16, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.

...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.

Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.

..Jewell.. 02/16/2026


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