Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Mid-level heights should slowly rise today as an upper ridge builds
over the western CONUS. Still, high-based thunderstorms are forecast
to form across the higher terrain of the southern/central High
Plains this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. The
airmass farther east into western KS may tend to remain capped, but
sufficient instability should exist to support surface-based
thunderstorms with an associated threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds from southeast CO into northeast NM and parts
of the OK/TX Panhandles. This should especially be the case where
strong daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates through deep
mixing of the boundary layer. Have adjusted the Slight Risk westward
a bit across the southern/central High Plains with this update, in
line with recent model guidance showing the more favored corridor
for severe gusts this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also
occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear, but
the tendency for clustering/quick upscale growth suggests that
severe winds should be the primary threat.
...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
A well-defined MCV remains clearly evident on regional radar and
satellite imagery this morning along the NE/KS border. This MCV will
likely develop east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO by
this afternoon. A small cluster ongoing across central MO may
continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds in the short
term. (See Mesoscale Discussion 1572 for more details.) Otherwise, a
convectively reinforced front to the MCV's south should serve as a
focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today as the
seasonably moist airmass across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley
gradually destabilizes. Moderate to locally strong instability
coupled with modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow and
sufficient deep-layer shear should promote organized severe
convection, including the potential for supercells. Both large hail
and severe/damaging winds may occur with this initially discrete
activity, before a tendency for clustering results in a greater risk
for damaging winds with eastward extent into the Ozarks/mid MS
Valley through this evening. Some adjustments have been made to the
Slight Risk across these regions based on latest guidance and
observational trends.
...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV which developed from earlier convection across the mid MS
Valley/Mid-South has slowly moved eastward across the lower OH
Valley early this morning, with a trailing flank of thunderstorms
over the Mid-South/TN Valley being aided by a west-southwesterly
low-level jet. This feature is forecast to track generally eastward
through the day, and may aid additional convective development later
today across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
While deep-layer shear will remain modest, moderate instability
developing over lower elevation locations should support some risk
for damaging winds with multicell clusters that spread eastward this
afternoon/evening. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm
development is also forecast farther north across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations
should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly
stronger across this region compared to areas farther south,
instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging
winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop
along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH
Valley.
...Western Florida Peninsula...
Mid-level ridging extending from the western Atlantic over the FL
Peninsula is forecast to move little today, with weak winds aloft
forecast. Most guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across parts
of the western FL Peninsula in a moderately to strongly unstable
environment. Rich low-level moisture characterized by total PWAT
values around 2 inches coupled with steepened low-level lapse rates
due to diurnal heating may support isolated strong to severe
downdraft winds with the more robust cores that develop this
afternoon.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will become more prominent today over much of the
Southwest/Great Basin northeastward into the northern Plains and
central Canada. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern
SD and vicinity into western MN. Mid-level north-northwesterly flow
should remain weak to modest across this region, which will limit
deep-layer shear and overall updraft organization. Still, a signal
for isolated gusty winds/hail with loosely organized clusters
remains apparent, if convection can form.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/10/2026
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