Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more
organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to
western New York.
...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the broad
upper-level trough across Ontario, overspreading the Great Lakes
into Upstate New York and Quebec. A cold front will extend from a
deep surface low across northern Ontario south through the Upper
Midwest and into the central High Plains. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the surface trough
across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and along the front from
the Midwest to the central High Plains.
...Eastern Ohio into western New York...
Across the eastern Ohio Valley into portions of the Northeast,
strengthening mid-level flow will overspread the region with
thunderstorms developing along the cold front and pre-frontal
surface trough. Upper 60s to 70s dew points and filtered daytime
heating will yield moderate instability amid ample deep layer shear
for organization. Mode will likely be a mix of multi-cell clusters
and transient supercells, with potential for damaging wind.
Generally weak lapse rate profiles and quick mode transition to
clusters/linear segments should limit hail and tornado potential.
Nonetheless, as the low-level jet increases into the afternoon and
clockwise curvature increases in hodographs a tornado may be
possible.
...Ohio Valley to the Midwest and the central Plains...
Morning convection will be likely across much of the
Midwest/Mid-Missouri Valley into the northwestern Ohio Valley.
Remnant shower activity/cloud cover will likely limit severe
potential with northern extent. Nonetheless, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the
afternoon along the front and remnant outflow from the eastern Ohio
Valley through portions of the Midwest and into the central Plains.
Flow will be fairly weak across the central Plains, with generally a
marginal damaging wind threat with multi-cell clusters as daytime
heating steepens low-level lapse rates amid deeply mixed profiles.
Slightly better flow aloft may favor a more focused cluster across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 09/09/2026
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