Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN UTAH
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts are the primary hazard.
... Synopsis ...
An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will exist across
the US on Wednesday. A vigorous shortwave trough will move east
across the northern Rockies as a Mexico-to-Canada midlevel ridge
moves into the central US. Downstream from the ridge, an amplified
trough will deepen further, developing into a closed low over the
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region.
... Portions of the Great Basin and the Central and Northern Rockies
...
As the potent midlevel shortwave trough moves across the northern
Rockies an attendant 80-90 knot midlevel jet streak will overspread
northern portions of the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. At the same time, a cold front will push east across the
region leading to scattered convection by mid-to-late afternoon.
Forecast soundings continue to exhibit inverted-V thermodynamic
profiles and increasing cloud-layer shear. The result will be fast
moving storms capable of transporting momentum downward to the
surface. Additionally, the dry sub-cloud layer will support the
potential for some dry microburst potential.
... Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians ...
A surface low will move east from Lower Michigan toward northern New
York, dragging a cold front eastward across the Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians before ending up near the Atlantic Coast.
Toward the end of the forecast period, the northern New York surface
low will redevelop farther southeast along the front near the
Atlantic Coast.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should rise into
low-to-mid-50Fs contributing to weak instability with diurnal
heating. Thunderstorms should develop across the area during the
afternoon along the front, with additional thunderstorms possible
across terrain favored areas across the central Appalachians.
Sufficient vertical shear beneath a 50 knot midlevel jet and modest
low-level lapse rates would support a marginal wind threat.
... Texas Panhandle into the High Plains of Southern Colorado ...
Strong diurnal heating beneath the midlevel ridge may be sufficient
for convective inhibition to erode and isolated thunderstorms to
develop across terrain favored areas. Very steep lapse rates will
support a hail and wind threat.
..Marsh/Weinman.. 05/13/2026
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