SPC Jul 28, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
TENNESSEE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS...AND OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...East TN into central VA/NC...
Late morning thunderstorms persist over parts of this region, with
pockets of precip and clouds. This will somewhat limit afternoon
heating across NC, but upstream heating and ample moisture should
spread eastward. This will aid in the re-development of intense
thunderstorms later today across the mountains of east TN/KY into
southwest VA and western NC. Forecast soundings show considerable
low and deep layer shear, favorable for supercell and bowing
structures. Damaging winds are the main concern, but hail and a few
tornadoes are also possible if supercells are maintained. These
storms will spread southeastward into central NC during the evening
with a continued damaging wind risk.

...Central VA into parts of PA/DE/NJ...
Persistent cloud cover is limiting daytime heating so far from
eastern PA eastward to the coast. However, visible satellite
imagery shows some clearing developing from central PA into central
VA, where temperatures are climbing rapidly into the 80s. This
trend will likely spread eastward and aid in the development of
scattered afternoon storms. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient winds aloft will promote damaging winds in the
strongest cores. Occasional supercell structures could also result
in a tornado or two and/or hail.

...Eastern CO...
An upper ridge is centered over northern NM, with 20-30 knot
westerly flow over northern CO/southern WY. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form over the mountains and foothills today,
spreading eastward into the plains by late afternoon. Ample
moisture and moderate CAPE over the mountains, along with sufficient
vertical shear, may support hail in the strongest cells. As the
activity moves eastward into a hot air mass, locally damaging winds
will become a risk. This activity may spread into western NE/KS
this evening before weakening.

..Hart/Moore.. 07/28/2026


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SPC Jul 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and southern Appalachians...
A loosely organized band of storms, with some semi-discrete
storms/prior supercell on its southwestern flank around sunrise,
will continue to progress east-southeastward across the Cumberland
Plateau toward/across the Appalachians spine early today. Some
severe risk may exist this morning with the aforementioned storms on
the southwest flank including along the Kentucky/West
Virginia/Virginia border vicinity, but storm-associated cloud cover
and precipitation will otherwise be an important and somewhat
uncertain factor for destabilization with northeastward extent
regionally later today.

The region will be influenced by some additional large-scale
amplification of the upper trough along the East Coast, with a belt
of notably strong (45-55 kt around 500 mb) northwesterly flow aloft,
as sampled by upstream 12z observed RAOBs from the likes of
Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA, that is expected to spread
southeastward toward the region today. A moist air mass will persist
ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front, with the
strongest destabilization across the southern Appalachians vicinity
and Carolinas. Recovery/destabilization is generally expected across
Virginia in the wake of the early day convection, allowing for
probable severe-storm development into mid/late afternoon. Severe
storms may occur farther north across the Mid-Atlantic within a more
narrow warm sector.

Ample deep-layer shear and moderate low-level shear/SRH will support
a combination of supercells and organized line segments, with a more
discrete mode, and longer duration thereof, expected with the
southwesternmost extent of storms regionally from southern Virginia
into the Carolinas/southern Appalachians. Some tornado potential
will exist aside from a more prevalent damaging wind risk this
afternoon and evening as storms spread toward coastal areas.

...Central High Plains...
A ridge-peripheral low-amplitude/subtle shortwave trough will
influence scattered thunderstorm development later today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain and drift
eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate buoyancy across the
High Plains and upwards of 30-40 kt (stronger northward regionally)
effective shear will support sustained storms. Steep low-level lapse
rates and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F
will support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, aside from
some hail this afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/28/2026


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SPC Jul 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley. Additional storms with
severe wind gusts are also expected from Lower Michigan southward
into Ohio. A few strong gusts will also be possible in parts of the
central Plains and in south-central Arizona.

...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is moving
southward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist
and unstable airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the 70s
and low 80s F. The RAP has a pocket of strong instability located
from western Kentucky into southern Indiana, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. Scattered strong to severe
storms are ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger
instability, and the storms are being supported by large-scale
ascent associated with the shortwave trough. In addition, the
WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots
suggesting a potential for organized severe storms will continue
this evening. Severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and
short bowing line segments. The greatest coverage of severe is
expected to be over southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky...see
MCD 1774.

Further north into Lower Michigan, scattered strong thunderstorms
are ongoing ahead a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor
imagery. Short-term model forecasts suggest these storms will expand
in coverage and move southward across Lower Michigan into Ohio
during the late evening and early overnight period. Along this
corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 40
to 50 knot of deep-layer shear. This should support a wind-damage
threat with organized short line segments.

...Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is currently moving over
the top of a ridge in the central High Plains. Ahead of the
shortwave trough, scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing along
the western edge of a pocket of strong instability. The RAP
currently shows MLCAPE over central Nebraska in the 4000 to 5500
range. Even though forecast soundings near the instability maximum
have low to mid-level wind speeds generally less than 20 knots, the
instability combined with very steep low-level lapse rates may be
enough for isolated severe wind gusts for a few more hours this
evening.

...Arizona...
The latest surface analysis shows a sufficiently moist airmass in
place over the southern half of Arizona, where dewpoints are mostly
in the mid to upper 50s F. Within the moist air, the RAP has a
pocket of moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range. Thunderstorm have developed along the northern edge of the
stronger instability. These storms will move westward across
south-central Arizona this evening, and may pose a threat for severe
wind gusts due to very steep low to mid-level lapse rates...MCD
1772.

..Broyles.. 07/28/2026


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SPC Jul 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
are expected across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight.
More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind are possible in the
Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast
Arizona.

...20z Update IL/IN...
An evolving convective cluster across northern IL/IN and southern
lower MI should continue to move south/southeast this afternoon.
Low-level convergence is maximized along a weak CAPE/ThetaE gradient
laying roughly near the IN/OH border. CAM guidance and observation
trends suggest this may provide a focus for convection through this
afternoon and evening gradually turning the cluster further
southward. Moderate buoyancy and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear parallel
to the boundary could support organized linear/bowing structures
with severe/damaging gusts and perhaps some QLCS tornadoes possible
across northern IN and possibly extending into western OH. However,
leading stratiform and cloud cover could limit the eastern extent of
the higher severe risk, and confidence in the convective evolution
is very low.

Additional development has been noted along the western flank of the
complex over northern IL, with another cluster of storms exiting
southern WI. It is possible that these new storms, and additional
ascent tied to a westerly low-level jet will support a second
cluster of severe storms eventually organizing and moving more south
across IL/IN. Hot surface temperatures (90-95 F) and a very large
reservoir of extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE 4000-5000 J/kg) extending into
IL and western IN would support a risk for widespread
severe/damaging gusts. Given the increased confidence in damaging
winds this afternoon/evening, have shifted 30% wind probabilities
farther south in IN.

...Central and northern High Plains...
Scattered storms ongoing over the high plains should increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates
could promote severe wind gusts with stronger downdrafts, along with
isolated hail. Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook, see
MCD#1767 and MCD#1768 for more information.

Additional scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Mid
Atlantic/Southeast and southern AZ. These storms should continue
this afternoon with potential for sporadic damaging gusts owing to
heavy water loading and moderate buoyancy. Limited vertical shear
and only modest clustering suggest severe potential will remain
isolated before diminishing overnight.

..Lyons.. 07/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026/

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A large upper ridge remains present today over the central
Plains/Rockies, with moderately strong northwest flow aloft from the
Midwest into the OH Valley. A very moist and unstable low-level air
mass resides from WI/IL into MI/IN/OH, where mostly clear skies will
result in hot afternoon temperatures and MLCAPE values over 3000
J/kg. Multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms are ongoing over
parts of WI tracking southeastward. These storms will move through
this reservoir of high CAPE, leading to the potential for an active
severe weather event today. However, details of how these clusters
evolve are uncertain.

Vertical shear across this region will support supercell structures,
capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes this
afternoon. However, the greater concern is if storms can congeal
into a southeastward bowing system and that sweeps across Lower MI,
eastern IL, IN, and western OH. Several morning CAM solutions
indicate that risk, with storms spreading into KY overnight before
weakening. Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern does not lend
itself to a high-confidence convective forecast.

...High Plains...
Widespread clouds are affecting parts of western NE this morning.
However, strong heating will occur north and south of these clouds,
leading to afternoon thunderstorms. The most active area will
likely be over the Black Hills region where damaging winds and hail
are possible. Farther south, widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms will affect eastern CO/western KS with a risk of
damaging wind gusts.


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