SPC May 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
central/southern Georgia.

...Texas...
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026


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SPC May 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this evening from north
Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Discussion...
Two areas of thunderstorm development are noted this evening: one
near the cold front extending across northwestern Arkansas and
another southward into north Texas near the cold front interface
with the dryline in central Texas. These two areas will be the
targets of interest for severe storm development this evening.

...Arkansas...
A cluster of elevated cells have developed in the vicinity of the
cold front in northwestern Arkansas. These have been slow to mature,
likely owning to remaining surface inhibition observed from NSSL
LIFT soundings from central Arkansas. This is also observed in
surface objective analysis, with moderate to strong CAPE in place
across much of central/southern Arkansas. Hi-res guidance suggests
that additional development will be likely through the evening. The
shear profiles across the region are supportive of supercells, given
strong deep layer shear at 65+ kts. If these cells can become
surface based through time, the tornado risk will increase. Surface
objective analysis indicates STP around 3-4 across southwestern
Arkansas into central Arkansas. Through time, additional development
along the front will become more linear and support an increase in
damaging wind potential.

...North-Central and Northeastern Texas/Southwestern Texas...
Thunderstorms have developed across the north side of the Dallas
metro this evening near the interface of the dryline with surface
boundaries and the cold front. Conditionally, if supercells develop
across this region potential for large hail will be possible.

Guidance also suggests convective development will be possible near
the Mexico border in far southwestern Texas. A conditional risk for
large to very large hail will extend into this region as well this
evening.

..Thornton.. 05/06/2026


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SPC May 5, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western
Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a
band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western
TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms
extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it
intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped
southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX
northeastward into the Ozarks.

Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud
cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH
Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid
to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX
into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels
via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion
around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.

Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures
warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther
northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger
heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of
3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence
along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are
anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the
erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are
breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms
developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is
forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the
evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by
relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow
will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and
near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs
this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms
moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH
environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger
storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting
through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS
River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete
supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is
expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is
maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before
storms weaken late.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front,
with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This
low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s
will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass
from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft
strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest.
Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly
linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a
low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 05/05/2026


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SPC May 5, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher
probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026


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