SPC Mar 3, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight. A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley. A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging. The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon. Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours. As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor). Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/03/2026


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SPC Mar 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this morning is being
aided by low-level warm advection, and is expected to remain
sub-severe as it tracks eastward into a less unstable airmass. A
belt of 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will be maintained
today across parts of the southern/central Plains as a shortwave
trough ejects eastward over this region though the period. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening as
low-level moisture streams northward across TX/OK into the Ozarks
and southern IL. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the
southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the
surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to be
suppressed across the southern/central Plains through much of the
afternoon into early evening owing to the presence of a stout
low-level inversion. One exception may be near the front/dryline
intersection in southwest to central OK, where MLCIN should become
minimal by peak afternoon heating. Here, some guidance suggests a
low chance for a robust thunderstorm or two to develop and track
northeastward along/near the I-44 corridor while posing an isolated
hail threat. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly southward
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, gradually increasing
large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough and strengthening
low-level warm/moist advection should encourage the development of
elevated thunderstorms north of the front, mainly after 04/06Z.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/03/2026


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SPC Mar 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri.

...Southern Plains/Central MO...

Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to
eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max
translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will
progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the
surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful
cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the
synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the
overnight hours.

Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into
the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be
breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However,
forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the
dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating
will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based.

Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the
day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much
colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings
suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely
during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the
strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a
corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms
may generate severe hail.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026


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SPC Mar 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
Great Basin early this evening. Large-scale ascent is spreading
downstream ahead of this feature into southern WY where isolated
thunderstorms are currently noted, especially over Carbon County,
just east of Rawlins. This activity appears to be aided by the 500mb
speed max and steep 0-6km lapse rates. 00z soundings from RIW, GJT,
and LKN all support this with 8-9 C/km values, but only ~0.35 inch
PW. Very weak buoyancy will continue to support lighting with weak
convection this evening.

Later tonight, surface warm front will advance north into the Ozarks
and 850mb warm advection will increase along the cool side of the
boundary. While 00z sounding from SGF exhibited a very strong cap,
and negligible instability, weak MUCAPE should gradually increase
later tonight and isolated elevated convection is expected to
develop across the MO/IL region.

..Darrow.. 03/03/2026


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