SPC Nov 5, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the Great Lakes is forecast to strengthen through
the day today as it merges with a weaker shortwave trough emanating
from the mid MS Valley. East of the mid-level cyclone, a belt of
enhanced southerly flow aloft will gradually overspread portions of
the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard into the evening and
overnight hours. A broad surface low over the lower St Lawrence
valley will weaken as a second low forms over the eastern Great
Lakes. An associated diffuse cold front is forecast to move slowly
southeastward across the Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast.

...Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic...
Ahead of the cold front a moist air mass will remain in place with
dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Low-level warm air advection will favor
cloudiness and only modest buoyancy with continued weak southerly
surface winds. The stronger flow aloft is expected to arrive later
in the diurnal cycle and will mainly be focused behind the cold
front. Given the weak overall forcing and modest buoyancy,
relatively isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Additional storms may develop along the front later in the evening,
but little severe potential is expected owing to the weak buoyancy
and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear.

...Southern New England...
Farther north, a moist but cooler boundary layer will likely be in
place ahead of the cold front from MA to southern NY. The humid
environment could support very weak buoyancy immediately ahead of
the front amid strengthening flow aloft. Frontal forcing is not
expected to be overly strong, but could support a shallow convective
band ahead of the front late in the evening and overnight. Some
potential may exist for intermittent strong gusts to reach the
surface, but confidence remains quite low.

...OK/TX...
A weak vorticity max will move across OK on the southwestern flank
of the larger-scale eastern trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will
support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected
through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated
thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern
end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak
shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/05/2026


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SPC Nov 5, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will
remain possible across parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Evening water vapor imagery showed an upper low over MN/WI with a
second upper low, moving from the Four Corners into the central
Rockies. A pronounced shortwave trough over MS and AL is forecast to
move eastward ahead of a belt of enhanced mid-level flow that
extends over the lower third of the CONUS between the two more
dominant upper-level cyclones. An associated surface low over the
Great Lakes will move eastward as a trailing cold front moves across
the Midwest and Southeast.

...Southeast...
Evening radar and satellite observations show a band of
predominately disorganized convection has evolved along and ahead of
the cold front from eastern TN, to south-central AL, while a more
isolated convective cluster was ongoing over eastern GA. The
environment ahead of the front remains moist, with mid 60s to low
70s F surface dewpoints across much of the Southeast. However, lapse
rates remain quite poor generally around 6 C/km (00z BMX sounding)
which, along with the loss of diurnal heating is limiting buoyancy.
Still, area RAP profiles show around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE persisting
into the evening across eastern AL and into GA, which should be
sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts.

The enhanced flow aloft is also supporting marginal deep-layer shear
(30-35 kt) for storm organization with clusters and transient
supercells having been observed. Despite deep and low-level shear
forecast to weaken overnight, modestly curved hodographs may support
occasional rotation, with a low-end risk for a brief tornado or
damaging gust this evening. Eventually storms should weaken as the
environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the
western Carolinas overnight.

..Lyons.. 11/05/2026


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SPC Nov 4, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk area to clear
behind the ongoing convection. See MCD#2444 and the previous
discussion below for more details.

..Halbert-E.. 11/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/

...Southeast...
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast
states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced
shortwave trough over MS/AL. As this trough translates eastward
today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and
east TN. Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated
strong/severe storms later today.

The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and
western GA. Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at
least pockets of heating occurring out ahead. A few supercells are
possible. Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and
some veering in areas of better heating. This may tend to reduce
the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.

Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into
upstate SC later today. Low-level winds will remain backed and
moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles
for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.


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SPC Nov 4, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the
southern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over
the western MN/IA border vicinity. A shortwave trough is moving over
the Ozarks within the base of this cyclone. This shortwave is
forecast to pivot quickly northeastward then northward through the
OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Another, lower amplitude shortwave
trough is currently progressing eastward through the Lower MS
Valley, with continued eastward/east-northeastward progress
anticipated today.

Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with the
Upper Midwest cyclone over far northwest WI, with a cold front
arcing southeastward into far northeast IL then southward to another
low over far eastern LA. A moist airmass precedes this cold front,
with mid 60s dewpoints extending through western KY and low 60s
dewpoints as far north as eastern WI. Thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of this front as it moves eastward, with the highest
thunderstorm coverage from central/eastern KY across middle/eastern
TN into northern AL and GA.

...Northern AL/Middle TN into the southern Appalachians...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the
moist and broadly confluence warm sector from MS/AL northward into
IL/OH. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue within this
region of confluent while also developing along the front. Buoyancy
will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, but
ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg.
Moderate vertical shear will be in place as well, with much of this
shear confined below 700 mb.

Given the moderate to strong low-level shear, this modified tropical
airmass appears supportive of a low-probability tornado risk with
thunderstorms along the cold front and within the prefrontal
confluence zone. Primary limiting factor will be the confined
updraft duration and strength resulting from poor lapse rates and
associated low buoyancy. Even with this limiting factor, a few
storms could briefly achieve the depth and duration need to produce
a brief tornado, particularly from northeast AL across northern GA
where stronger southeasterly surface wind are possible. A few
convectively aided damaging gusts could occur across the region as
well.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/04/2026


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