SPC Apr 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.

...Western/central Kansas...
The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.

...Southern Florida...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026


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SPC Apr 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central
Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe
wind and hail possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today,
supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states.
Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may
develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late
afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over
the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS
Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern
CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.

...Central into western Kansas...
By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the
boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached
along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift
southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely
around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place.
High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong
northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight
hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026


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SPC Apr 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cooler temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the southern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.

..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026


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SPC Apr 7, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 04/07/2026


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