SPC Mar 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated today.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen over the northern
Rockies this afternoon, resulting in steep lapse rates, cold
temperatures aloft, and strong large-scale forcing over northwest
WY. Despite cold surface temperatures, at least isolated
thunderstorms are expected.

A developing low-level baroclinic zone over MN/WI will be the focus
for thunderstorm development tonight as the low-level jet
strengthens. Much of this activity will likely be associated with
freezing precip and heavy snowfall.

Finally, scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of
central/south FL, in a rather weakly sheared environment.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/14/2026


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SPC Mar 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move from the Northeast offshore into the
western Atlantic today. At mid-levels, westerly flow will prevail
over much of the central U.S., as a trough amplifies in the northern
Rockies. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead
of the trough this afternoon. As the trough moves into the Great
Plains tonight, thunderstorms will be possible near the edge of a
low-level jet in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered
storms may also develop across the Florida Peninsula today. No
severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the U.S.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/14/2026


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SPC Mar 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this evening from parts of
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, and in
south-central Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S tonight.
Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, as the left exit
region of a very strong mid-level jet passes. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible early this evening within a moist and unstable
airmass in south-central Florida. No severe threat is expected in
the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2026


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SPC Mar 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026


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