SPC Nov 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico. This
feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale
ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening.
Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover
will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited.
These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg. Winds aloft
are also relatively weak. While organized severe storms appear
unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in
the more intense cells.

...Northern CA...
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with
intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front. No
lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and
thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak. Nevertheless, strong wind
gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an
orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through
mid afternoon.

..Hart/Halbert-E.. 11/13/2026


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SPC Nov 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...Southwest States including southern Arizona...
A southern-stream shortwave trough near the SoCal/northern Baja
coast will continue generally eastward along the international
border, while a more prominent upper trough amplifies a bit more
along the West Coast toward the Great Basin. Ahead of the southern
stream trough, isolated thunderstorm development will become more
probable by late morning into the afternoon across southern Arizona
as forcing for ascent overspreads a modestly moist/unstable boundary
layer.

A few stronger low-topped storms could develop/spread
north-northeastward into south-central/southeast Arizona by around
mid-afternoon. Some small hail and/or gusty winds are plausible, but
current thinking is that organized severe thunderstorm potential
will be curbed by a trend of weakening low/mid-tropospheric flow
into this afternoon (effective shear 25 kt or less), along with the
relatively cool thermal profiles and perceived limitations on
downdraft intensity. A bit later in the day, a somewhat stronger
combination of deep-layer winds and lapse rates/buoyancy could also
contribute to some stronger storm potential toward the Rio Grande
River valley of southern New Mexico and far west Texas, but overall
severe potential should remain low.

Across northern California, while lightning flash potential will
likely remain limited, some convective enhancement to the
inland-spreading precipitation may influence some stronger
near-coastal wind gusts. Additional low-topped convection is
expected as lapse rates steepen within the post-frontal environment
later today for near-coastal areas and possibly parts of the
interior valley.

..Guyer/Mead.. 11/13/2026


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SPC Nov 13, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough near the California coast this morning
will shift east toward the southern Rockies by Saturday morning.
Cooling aloft will support weak instability across portions of
southern AZ/NM to Far West TX. Boundary layer moisture is expected
to remain modest, with the dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s F.
This will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across southern AZ/NM, spreading eastward toward southwest TX by
late afternoon/early evening. Southerly deep-layer flow is forecast,
with effective shear magnitudes generally around 20-25 kt. Modest
shear and instability will likely limit severe potential, though
gusty winds and small hail could occur with the strongest storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of coastal OR
into northern/central CA as a second upper shortwave trough moves
inland across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. A lightning
flash or two is possible during the nighttime hours from central CA
into the Great Basin, but overall coverage is expected to remain
less than 10 percent.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/13/2026


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SPC Nov 13, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight into
early Friday.

...01z Update...

Severe probabilities have been removed from the Mid-Atlantic as
earlier strong/severe convection has weakened and moved offshore.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight/early Friday morning
near the southern CA coast as an upper shortwave trough shifts east
across the area. Generally modest low to mid-level flow and weak
instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential with this
activity.

..Leitman.. 11/13/2026


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