Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the
forecast remains largely on track. Isolated thunderstorm development
is noted across portions of western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, but
cloud cover continues to generally temper surface heating ahead of
this activity. While a stronger gust or two may still be possible
(particularly where any developing convection can interact with
pockets of stronger heating/greater low-level lapse rates), the
overall severe risk continues to appear limited owing to the
marginal thermodynamic/kinematic environment.
While the overall environment is marginally more favorable farther
southwest across portions of southeast NM/West TX, relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and the displacement of better synoptic-scale
forcing for ascent farther to the northwest suggest that convection
will largely be tied to terrain influences. Coupled with a
relatively narrow zone of greater buoyancy (as depicted by 19z
objective analysis), this suggests that the overall severe risk
should remain limited.
See the discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers/Dean.. 09/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this
morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is
spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly
develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early
day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is
possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger
heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise,
across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow,
more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a
moist boundary layer.
...Southeast NM/Southwest TX...
Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will
range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection
may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast
NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and
produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be
tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in
the wake of the early day MCS.
...Western OK...
While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating
could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the
ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few
hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of
low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A
strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of
low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear,
weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall
severe risk appears limited.
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