SPC Oct 4, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal
Florida Panhandle.

...Florida Panhandle...
A stalled/slow-southeastward-moving surface front will reside across
the Southeast and Deep South today, with a very moist airmass
persisting along and to its south, featuring Precipitable Water
values in excess of 2 inches. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
common early today south of the front, including across the northern
half of the Gulf. There are some guidance indications, most notably
recent NAM runs, that weak offshore surface low development may
occur today, with a related developing enhancement to the low-level
flow/SRH. Should this trend materialize, showers/thunderstorms will
have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level
circulations, mainly near the coast, with a related waterspout/brief
tornado potential.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/04/2026


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this
morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across
the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain
in place across the western US. This pattern will favor
northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country,
in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air.

At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of
a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will
slowly move east during the day.

... Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal
Waters ...

A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today,
with a very moist airmass in place along and south of it. Forecast
soundings across the area indicate nearly moist thermodynamic
profiles from surface to the tropopause, with the 20261004 00 UTC
HREF having mean precipitable water values around 2.5" across most
of the Florida Panhandle. Given these moist vertical profiles,
conditional instability will be low today, with mean MUCAPE values
generally 500 J/kg or less.

Despite the meager instability, one consequence of the moist
vertical profiles will be that LCL heights will be very low --
generally at or below 500 meters. At the same time, forecast
soundings in areas to the east of the surface low show modest wind
curvature in the lowest 3 km. Thus, despite the meager instability,
forced convective showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to
exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, especially over
coastal areas where surface friction is reduced. The threat should
slowly move east during the day as the surface low slowly moves
east.

..Marsh/Wendt.. 10/04/2026


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

... 01Z ...

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will be possible this
evening along and south of a surface front stretched from the
Carolinas southwest toward the upper-Gulf coast of Texas. Limited
instability should preclude any severe potential.

Overnight a secondary cold front will move south into the southern
Plains. Cool surface temperatures and moist vertical profiles will
limit overall instability, but enough elevated instability may
develop to support an occasional thunderstorm.

The severe potential will remain low through the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 10/04/2026


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SPC Oct 3, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunder to account for recent
trends. Please see previous discussion below.

..Thornton.. 10/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across
the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers
and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will
spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite
limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of
weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with
this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the
overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the
minimal instability forecast.

A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX
into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus
for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist
airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for
organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater
concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf
Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of
Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this
region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain
weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be
disorganized.


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