SPC Mar 7, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and
well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/07/2026


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SPC Mar 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes appear
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to advance eastward today
across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley though the period.
The primary surface low is forecast to develop northeastward into
Ontario and Quebec through the day, while a trailing cold front
moves quickly east-southeastward across the OH Valley and eventually
PA/NY. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across
central/eastern OH, and strong low-level warm moist advection
associated with a 40-50+ kt low-level jet will aid in a gradual
increase in low-level moisture ahead of ongoing convection across
KY/southern IL into IN. While MLCAPE should only peak around
500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front by early afternoon, strong flow at
low/mid-levels will aid thunderstorm clusters in producing scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly eastward across the upper
OH Valley later today. The potential for a few line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes is also apparent given sufficient low-level
shear. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it
moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a
much less unstable airmass.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
Extensive convection is ongoing this morning along/near a
southeastward-moving cold front. Isolated damaging winds will remain
possible this morning where short line segments/bows can stay ahead
of the surging front. Current expectations are for an uptick in
thunderstorm intensity to occur this afternoon as activity spreads
southeastward into a gradually destabilizing airmass across the
lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Scattered damaging winds along
consolidating outflows should be the main threat for most areas this
afternoon through early evening as low-level lapse rates steepen.
But, some potential for supercells remains apparent across parts of
TX, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear will
support the potential for large hail. Even with the primary upper
trough remaining to the north, some enhancement to the low-level
winds persists, which may support a brief tornado threat in the
short term. See Mesoscale Discussion 164 for more details on the
near-term severe threat across AR and vicinity.

..Gleason/Dean.. 03/07/2026


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SPC Mar 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST
VIRGINIA...AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into
the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western
Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will sweep across the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes today, while a surface low pivots northeast
from the Great Lakes into Quebec. A cold front will extend
southwestward from the low, extending from northwest OH into
southeast TX by 00Z. To the east, a warm front will lift north
across VA and into western NY and PA during the day.

Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend from
TX into IN and OH, with mid to upper 60s F across the lower MS
Valley and 70 F dewpoints near the Gulf Coast. East of the
Appalachians, lower 60s F dewpoints will develop northward as far
north as VA, MD and DE. Shear will be maximized from the Ohio Valley
into the northeast in association with the upper trough, with the
greatest relative severe potential there.

...OH Valley into western NY/PA/WV...
Height falls will occur during the day across the region, with
increasing wind speeds and shear. Daytime heating and southwest
surface winds will lead to sufficient instability to support
afternoon severe storms from parts of the OH Valley northeastward
into western NY/PA. Here, lift and low-level shear will be
accentuated along the warm front, possibly supporting a few
supercells with attendant tornado risk just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, 40-50 kt mean wind speeds just off the surface, in
combination with linear forcing along the advancing front will favor
wind damage.

...TX into the Lower MS Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of
the cold front as it plunges south through the period. Given mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front, substantial elevated
instability will remain well north of the boundary as well as ahead
of it. Sufficient mid to high level shear may aid hail production
with cells even as they are undercut. Otherwise, any convection
forming ahead of the front may also produce strong wind gusts, aided
by modest southwest winds in the lower few km.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/07/2026


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SPC Mar 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms remain possible primarily from northeast
Oklahoma into Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, with isolated severe storms
extending from central Texas to Lower Michigan. Scattered hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible.

...Discussion...
The most active area of tornado threat is currently with a cluster
of storms over northeast OK. This activity may continue to evolve
this evening as the low-level jet increases, and shear remains
favorable into eastern KS and southwest MO. The TOP and SGF 00Z
soundings continue to show wind profiles favorable for tornadic
cells.

To the north along the cold front, an unstable air mass remains
ahead of it, although the front will quickly undercut much of the
area as it continues south. However, brief supercells may occur
along the boundary, with wind and tornado threat, and, elevated hail
will remain possible well behind the front.

For more information about KS into IA, see mesoscale discussion
0152.

For information on northeast OK, see mesoscale discussion 0153.

For information on northern IN into southern Lower MI, see mesoscale
discussion 0154.

..Jewell.. 03/07/2026


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