SPC Mar 24, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of
north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal
Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS
today, with low-level moisture sufficient to support thunderstorms
confined to parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a front.
Large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region through the
afternoon, with multiple small-scale perturbations embedded within
mean upper troughing across the eastern states remaining displaced
to the north of FL. Even so, isolated thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across parts of north/central FL, with some preference for
initiation along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Weak low/mid-level
flow and related modest deep-layer shear are expected to limit the
threat for organized severe convection. Isolated thunderstorms may
also occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of
coastal WA as strong forcing and cool temperatures aloft associated
with a mid/upper-level jet overspread this region.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/24/2026


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SPC Mar 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening from southeast
Georgia to the South Carolina coast.

...Discussion...
Storms have pushed mostly offshore the North Carolina Coast and are
developing near the South Carolina coast. Inhibition is increasing
this evening which should limit storm potential over land. However,
some lingering instability and more favorable moisture is still
present across southeast Georgia and vicinity. Therefore, have kept
the thunder probabilities across this region for the potential for
isolated storms later this evening.

..Bentley.. 03/24/2026


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SPC Mar 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
Minimal changes were made to the thunder area over parts of the
Carolinas given the latest frontal position. Weak destabilization
has occurred over parts of the eastern Carolinas amid strong diurnal
heating of a modestly moist air mass. A strong storm or two remains
possible this afternoon ahead of the front beneath enhanced
mid-level flow. However, the coverage and duration of any stronger
storms appears limited. See the prior outlook for more info.

..Lyons.. 03/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/

...Coastal Carolinas/Georgia...
A large upper trough continues to track eastward across the lower
Great Lakes and into New England today, while the associated surface
cold front sags across the southeast states. As the front
approaches the more moist and marginally unstable offshore air mass,
showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous. This
process will occur late this afternoon, and might result in a strong
storm or two along the immediate coast of NC before activity moves
out to sea. Small hail or gusty winds are possible, but the overall
severe threat seems too low to warrant probabilities at this time.


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SPC Mar 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas.

...Coastal Carolinas/Georgia...
A large upper trough continues to track eastward across the lower
Great Lakes and into New England today, while the associated surface
cold front sags across the southeast states. As the front
approaches the more moist and marginally unstable offshore air mass,
showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous. This
process will occur late this afternoon, and might result in a strong
storm or two along the immediate coast of NC before activity moves
out to sea. Small hail or gusty winds are possible, but the overall
severe threat seems too low to warrant probabilities at this time.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 03/23/2026


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