SPC Jun 25, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of
the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging
winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should
exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be
heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from
western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied
to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent
VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN
sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is
present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from
this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also
analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface
dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The
thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with
evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just
to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This
activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the
morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend
to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is
uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on
the short-term severe threat across KS.

The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the
boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to
suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability
will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak
surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area
later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward
over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected,
initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe
gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy
quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level
shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary
across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs
suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any
thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the
enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears
possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest
TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this
evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before
eventually weakening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening
as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak
surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes
today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to
low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly
stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence
in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low
for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update.

...Utah into Wyoming and Montana...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this
afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where
cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear,
and pockets of greater instability should support more robust
convection.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026


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SPC Jun 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organizing clusters of storms, with potential to produce
strong to severe wind gusts, are possible across parts of the Texas
South Plains through central Great Plains late this afternoon into
tonight. Isolated strong storm development preceding this activity
across parts of north central Oklahoma into south central Kansas may
pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes by early this evening.

...Discussion...
The westerlies are undergoing amplification across the mid-latitude
Pacific. Later today into tonight, models indicate that this will
include digging large-scale mid-level troughing on its leading edge,
across and inland of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it
appears that generally zonal flow will prevail across the northern
and central tier of the U.S., to the north of ridging in the
subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, mid-level troughing,
accompanied by an area of modest height falls within otherwise
rising heights, is forecast to turn eastward across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity. Upstream, initially stronger mid-level height falls
accompanying a short wave perturbation, and perhaps a notable
embedded mesoscale convective vortex, may be in the process of
overspreading the central Great Plains at the outset of the period,
before continuing toward the lower Missouri Valley, amidst weak to
modest larger-scale height rises late this afternoon through
tonight.

In lower levels, a broad weak surface low is forecast to migrate
across the lower Great Lakes, with a an ill-defined trailing influx
of cooler/drier air advancing a bit farther southward through the
central Great Plains, and southeast of the Upper Midwest through the
Great Lakes and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley. It appears
that surface troughing will deepen through the day to the lee of the
southern Rockies, as strong heating occurs beneath a remnant plume
of very warm elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great
Plains. Near the northern/northeastern periphery of this air mass,
a zone of strong differential heating may develop by late afternoon,
northeast of the Raton ridge into northern Oklahoma. This boundary
might be augmented by outflow from a cluster of storms now evolving
across northeastern Colorado into western Kansas. It appears that
this boundary may retreat northward into portions of southern Kansas
and Missouri tonight.

...Parts of southern/central Great Plains...
The potential convective evolution for today remains unclear, and
severe weather potential will considerably be impacted by
sub-synoptic developments, which remain unclear. This includes the
subsequent evolution of the cluster of storms now propagating into
northwestern Kansas, and another forming across the Texas Panhandle
vicinity. However, guidance generally suggests that low-level
convergence and destabilization within the lee surface trough across
the Panhandle vicinity into Texas South Plains may provide support
for widespread thunderstorm development by early this evening. And
the boundary across the central Great Plans, reinforced by early day
outflow and subsequent differential heating, may eventually become a
focus for increasing thunderstorm development this evening into the
overnight hours.

A deeply mixed boundary layer across the Panhandle/South Plains
vicinity may become unstable enough to support the risk for large
hail, in addition to damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into
evening.

Low-level convergence/warm advection along the zone of differential
surface heating might promote at least isolated supercell
development somewhere across north central Oklahoma into south
central Kansas, where a convectively augmented belt of westerly
mid-level flow may contribute to strong shear. If this occurs, this
may be accompanied by a period of increasing potential for a tornado
or two by early evening, near the nose of a strengthening southerly
850 mb jet, before evolving into an upscale growing cluster with
strong surface gusts becoming the primary potential hazard
overnight.

...Lower Great Lakes...
Convection allowing model output is still not providing a clear
signal for more than rather isolated pre-frontal strong to severe
thunderstorm development. However, strengthening westerly flow in
the 700-500 mb layer could become sufficient to support organized
convective development, including supercells, with sufficient
destabilization. Depending on model trends, it is still possible
that probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this
period.

...Parts of central and southern Wyoming...
Latest convection allowing guidance suggests that thermodynamic
profiles by this afternoon could become conducive to the evolution
of an organizing cluster of storms with potential to produce strong
to severe surface gusts, aided by forcing for ascent associated with
a short wave perturbation emerging from the northern intermountain
region.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/25/2026


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SPC Jun 25, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms accompanied by large hail may gradually
evolve into an organizing cluster with increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts across parts of northeastern Colorado
into parts of southwestern Nebraska and western Kansas tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Front Range into adjacent central Great Plains...
Warm advection based near the 700 mb level, near the northeastern
periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air lingering to the
east of the Front Range, is becoming the focus for increasing
thunderstorm development across and east-southeast of the Cheyenne
Ridge vicinity. This seems likely to continue to grow upscale
during the next few hours, aided by inflow of seasonably moist
boundary-layer air emanating from along and south of a stalled to
slowly southwestward advancing surface front across this region
through the central Nebraska/Kansas state border vicinity.

Beneath 20 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow (but strongly sheared
due to pronounced veering of winds from easterly to westerly with
height), this activity probably will gradually organize as it
propagates east-southeastward this evening, and pose increasing
potential for strong to severe surface gusts. Strongest gusts and
highest severe wind probabilities may eventually focus on the
southwestern flank of the evolving system across parts of east
central Colorado into northwest/west central Kansas, near the nose
of a modest (30+ kt around 850 mb) southeasterly boundary-layer jet.

...Southern Wisconsin/Northern Illinois...
Low-level moistening is maintaining boundary-layer instability in a
pre-frontal corridor across west central through northeastern
Illinois early this evening. As larger-scale mid-level troughing
continues to slowly dig across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
forcing for ascent may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development
posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of southeastern
Wisconsin/northeastern Illinois into portions of northwestern
Indiana into mid to late evening.

..Kerr.. 06/25/2026


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SPC Jun 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for
large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
the Midwest and Great Basin.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southeastward
in southwestern NE. Here, diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints
will yield a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy, which
combined with 50-60 kt of effective shear, will support the
potential for a couple intense supercells capable of producing very
large hail and severe gusts. The adjacent SLGT risk was also
expanded southeastward into south-central NE and north-central KS,
where upscale-growing clusters will pose a risk for severe wind
gusts with time.

The SLGT risk in eastern NM was expanded westward toward the higher
terrain, given the potential for initially discrete supercell
structures capable of producing large hail.

Finally, a CIG1 wind area was added over portions of the Great
Basin, where a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing buoyancy
may support some gusts upwards of 75 mph.

..Weinman.. 06/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is
anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.

...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.

...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.


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