SPC Feb 19, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving
thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central
Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/19/2026


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SPC Feb 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through
early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
evening.

...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026


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SPC Feb 19, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong
gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley...
Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and
into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify
across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in
the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the
Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with
50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH
Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles
between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower
MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel
winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over
much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH.
Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms
are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally
spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps
extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with
tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity,
the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms.
However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail
farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH
Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast...
A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to
Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will
translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast
soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with
moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such,
locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front
pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026


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SPC Feb 19, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough responsible for isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Lower MI this evening will continue to
lift north across the Great Lakes, while westerly winds at 850 mb
maintain a degree of instability over southwest Ontario and perhaps
into parts of western NY. Thunderstorm chances here will be
relatively low.

To the south, height falls will occur overnight across the Mid MS
and OH Valleys as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across KS
and OK. Isolated activity may occur into Thursday morning from parts
of MO into TN and IL/IN as elevated instability develops within a
subtle warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough.

Elsewhere, lift will increase across northern CA as a shortwave
trough dives southeastward just offshore. Cold temperatures aloft
and relatively warmer air near the coast may yield a few lightning
flashes overnight.

..Jewell.. 02/19/2026


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