SPC Apr 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler
temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.

...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the
slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that
severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026


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SPC Apr 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. No severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will begin exiting the Northeast and
overspreading the Atlantic as another mid-level trough impinges on
the Pacific Northwest and a lower amplitude impulse traverses the
Southwest today. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS
will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee
troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the
southern High Plains. As such, convective potential will be limited
over the much of the U.S. with few exceptions. A few embedded
mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will
foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning
flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the
eastern Great Lakes today.

The best chance for organized thunderstorm potential will be over
the FL Peninsula, where ample low-level moisture will exist in
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Afternoon peak heating will
support scattered thunderstorm development amid tall, thin CAPE
profiles, but relatively poor vertical wind shear. While strong
gusts may accompany some of the deeper storm cores, the threat for
severe storms appears too low for the inclusion of severe
wind-driven probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/06/2026


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SPC Apr 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible across the Florida Peninsula
through early tonight.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front continues to move offshore into the Atlantic,
aided by the eastward advancement of an upper trough over the Great
Lakes. Much of the low-level moisture and favorable buoyancy for
organized thunderstorms has either diminished or moved offshore with
the cold front. Some low-level moisture and instability remains
across the FL Peninsula, where thunderstorms are currently in
progress. These storms should benefit from residual buoyancy for a
few more hours before nocturnal stabilization and the arrival of the
cold front limits thunderstorm potential.

..Squitieri.. 04/06/2026


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SPC Apr 5, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026


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