SPC Feb 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive flow regime will reside across the contiguous United
States today to the north of a low-latitude, mid-level low over
northwestern Mexico. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of
lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through
early morning Monday. A plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates
is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. As a
result, low-topped convection moving ashore may intermittently be
capable of lightning flashes on an isolated basis near the coast.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorms will prevail
across the remainder of the CONUS.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/08/2026


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SPC Feb 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the
coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of
central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of
this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today.

In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave
impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday.
Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward,
eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates
potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards
parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most,
but a few lightning flashes remain plausible.

..Grams.. 02/08/2026


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SPC Feb 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms over southeast Arizona will diminish this
evening with negligible thunder potential tonight.

...Discussion...
Quiescent thunder potential is anticipated across the CONUS tonight.
An exception is across southeast AZ where quasi-stationary
thunderstorms have occurred in the late afternoon over the higher
terrain in parts of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. This activity
should rapidly dissipate over the next hour as nocturnal
boundary-layer cooling accelerates amid limited large-scale ascent.

..Grams.. 02/08/2026


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SPC Feb 7, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of
southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.

..Hart.. 02/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.

Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.


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