SPC Apr 30, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening
into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.

...Southwest and South-central Texas...
At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon
into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward
across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will
increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting
scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into
south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a
quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening
forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large
hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026


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SPC Apr 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast states. Large hail will be the primary threat in
the southern Plains. Wind damage and large hail will be possible in
the parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
states.

...Southern Plains...
Westerly mid-level flow is in place over much of the southern Plains
this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located over the Texas
Hill Country extending westward toward the Big Bend. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to strong
instability over much of south-central and southwest Texas, where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of
the instability max, a robust supercell is ongoing in the western
Texas Hill Country. Large to very large hail will continue to be
possible with this supercell as it moves southeastward across
south-central Texas this evening. Other supercells with potential
for large to very large hail may develop a further west and
southwest toward the Rio Grande this evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave
trough over east Texas. At the surface, a cold front is located in
east Texas extending eastward into central Mississippi. To the south
of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability. The axis of instability is
located from southeast Texas eastward into southern Mississippi.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a severe convective cluster
may develop this evening ahead of the shortwave trough over east
Texas and move east-southeastward along the instability gradient
into western Louisiana. If this cluster does materialize, then it
will likely be associated with a potential for large hail and wind
damage. Otherwise, convection that develops near the instability
axis in the central Gulf Coast states this evening will have a
potential for isolated severe gusts...see MCD 623.

Further north into parts of northeast Mississippi and north-central
Alabama, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe threat this
evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats...see MCD 625.

..Broyles.. 04/30/2026


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SPC Apr 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas to the Gulf
Coast states today. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are the primary risks, with giant hail possible in parts of
south-central Texas.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
Risk for portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX --
driven by a CIG2 (intensity level 2/2) hail area. The latest visible
satellite imagery indicates an agitated boundary-layer cumulus field
evolving east of Fort Stockton in Crockett County, where attempts at
isolated convective initiation are underway. Current thinking is
that continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s
dewpoints) and upslope flow enhancements will result in isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.
Current thinking is that storms will track/develop southeastward
into a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy -- driven by steep
midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km per 12Z DRT sounding) atop the
destabilizing PBL. This, combined with a long/straight hodograph
(60-70 kt of effective shear) and modest forcing for ascent will
favor intense discrete/splitting supercells. Given the modest
forcing for ascent, it is unclear how many storms will form in this
corridor, though any sustained supercells will pose a risk of very
large to giant hail (3-4+ inches in diameter).

..Weinman.. 04/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Satellite imagery late this morning indicates high momentum
quasi-zonal flow from TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast. An
upstream perturbation over Chihuahua is forecast to move quickly
east today reaching central TX late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage/intensity mainly along/near a surface front draped from
west-central TX to southern AR. A moisture-rich airmass featuring
lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints south of the front, coupled with a
plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and some diurnal heating,
will contribute to 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE decreasing with east
extent.

A few initial thunderstorms clusters north of the surface front over
TX are expected to gradually intensify through early afternoon. The
moderate to very unstable airmass will combine with elongated/nearly
straight hodographs to support supercell development with the
stronger updrafts and an associated risk for large to very large
hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Have extended the 15-percent hail
and CIG1 hail delineation farther east into northeast TX and western
LA. For short-term forecast details, please refer to MCD #615.
Eventually upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected to
evolve across LA into the central Gulf Coast states later this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail will
be the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

Farther west, isolated to widely scattered intense storm development
is forecast across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This
activity may eventually focus closer to the Rio Grande later this
evening with a large to very large hail threat persisting well after
dark.

...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Forecast soundings over western PA show some
low-level hodograph curvature within a moist environment. Main
uncertainty across the upper OH Valley is the magnitude of
destabilization in this area given ongoing scattered showers and
widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, a couple of stronger storms
could yield an isolated risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
tornado later this afternoon, especially near/southeast of a weak
surface low. Farther south, isolated wind/hail will be possible
with the stronger thunderstorms through the late afternoon/early
evening.


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SPC Apr 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts
of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds
and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail
possible across portions of Texas.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today
over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from
northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a
surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather
moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this
boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s.
Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to
2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into
the lower MS Valley.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective
coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the
weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm
sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the
front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very
strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any
persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX
(with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but
isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern
AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a
greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS
Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring
this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given
increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a
Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts
of TX to southern AL with this update.

...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in
generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC).
Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in
transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An
isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km
SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could
also support a brief tornado.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026


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