Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and
isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the
southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an
associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the
Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will
overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and
strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High
Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas.
Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over
the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts
will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and
strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during
the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the
overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of
the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the
southern Plains.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be
in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping
inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast
soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion
during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening
in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the
storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some
cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early
overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop.
The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible.
Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent
will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can
become established during the late afternoon or early to mid
evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large
to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2
would also support a tornado threat.
...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in
the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will
be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated
convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up
the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early
evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located
from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a
dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The
extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable
for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TSDc3y
