SPC Nov 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower Great Lakes this morning will
move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Modest
low-level warm advection and cool mid-level temperatures may support
weak but sufficient MUCAPE for occasional lightning flashes with
convection that develops across parts of New England through the
day. Instability is expected to remain too limited to support
organized severe thunderstorms.

Mainly elevated thunderstorms should occur through the period across
parts of west/central/south TX, as a separate mid-level trough/low
translates east-southeastward from the Southwest into north-central
Mexico. A surface front will generally remain offshore from the
lower TX Coast, but large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough
and a modest increase in low-level warm advection late this
afternoon into tonight will aid the development of MUCAPE up to 500
J/kg, which should support some lightning with this elevated
activity.

Across the coastal Pacific Northwest, a low-topped line of
convection is forecast to approach the WA Coast after 00Z, with
strong low and mid-level winds expected to be present ahead of an
approaching upper trough. Low 50s surface dewpoints and minimal
diurnal heating both appear marginal to support more than very weak
surface-based instability, and updrafts may not reach sufficient
height to induce charge separation and lightning flashes. Even so,
strong/gusty winds may occur with this convection as it spreads
inland across parts of coastal WA this evening/tonight. However,
given the very limited thermodynamic environment, confidence in
severe gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 11/07/2026


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SPC Nov 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east/northeast
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states today. In the wake of
the trough, a surface low will deepen off the coast of New England.
A strong surface cold front will move offshore with the low into the
Atlantic and Gulf waters early this morning. Isolated elevated
thunderstorms may occur with warm air advection ahead of the upper
cyclone across New England, though severe storms are not expected.

Along southern portions of the front near the Gulf Coast, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
southern/central TX. An upper cyclone moving out of northern MX will
bolster isentropic ascent behind the southward moving front
supporting scattered elevated thunderstorms. Instability will remain
meager and not supportive of severe storms.

Elsewhere, surface high pressure and offshore flow will favor dry
and stable conditions over the majority of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Olympic Peninsula where shallow
convection ahead of another upper trough may allow for a few
lightning strikes overnight.

..Lyons/Halbert-K.. 11/07/2026


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SPC Nov 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery showed an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes
continuing to drift eastward this evening. Gradual amplification of
this system is expected through tonight as it moves toward the coast
and merges with a less pronounced shortwave trough crossing the
southern Appalachians and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front
has largely moved offshore, limiting the effective warm sector.
Still, very weak elevated buoyancy may remain in place this evening
over Cape Hatteras and portions of the New England coast. Isolated
lightning strikes remain possible for a few more hours. Severe
potential is negligible.

...AZ...
A second upper low over the Desert Southwest is supporting isolated
thunderstorms across parts of AZ and northern MX this evening. Cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the low are aiding a
steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable environment. This may
continue through the first part of the overnight period before the
upper low shifts south of the international border and more stable
conditions develop. Weak buoyancy and vertical shear will preclude a
severe risk.

..Lyons.. 11/07/2026


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SPC Nov 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/

...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.


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