SPC May 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening.

...Southwest into South-Central Texas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over
southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate
east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this
afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their
associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the
Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12
UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure
near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch
into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon.

Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly
500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with
the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or
two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent
on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected
with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger
storms capable of wind/hail.

...Kentucky...
A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a
residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers
east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud
cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating
are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may
act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this
activity.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded
within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a
flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a
quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east
across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by
afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later
this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of
this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with
the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening.

...Northern Rockies...
A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in
between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over
the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus
thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer
destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will
contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be
possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast
to be the strongest.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026


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SPC May 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal
tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated
severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest
and northern Rockies.

...West and Southwest Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across far
west Texas. At the surface, a low will deepen near Big Bend as an
axis of low-level moisture sharpens from the Rio Grande Valley
northward into west Texas. Along this axis, surface dewpoints will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. Near the moist axis, a
north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast, along
which thunderstorm development is expected by late morning. Storm
coverage is forecast to expand and move eastward from west Texas
into southwest Texas this afternoon.

Along the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast
soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km.
This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
intense storms. In addition, forecast hodographs are curved and 0-3
km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to above 200
m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat. Cells are expected to
merge into a line during the late afternoon, potentially increasing
the threat for severe gusts. This line is forecast to move across
southwest Texas during the early evening.

...Kentucky...
South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast
to develop over far western Kentucky this afternoon. To the east of
the low, moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints to near
70 F across much of Kentucky, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak
around 1000 J/kg. Within this unstable airmass, low-level flow over
southern and central Kentucky will be backed to the south-southeast.
This, combined with increasing low-level flow, will create curved
hodographs. Forecast soundings at 21Z south of Lexington have 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity increasing to 150 m2/s2 by mid afternoon,
which should support a marginal tornado threat. Isolated severe wind
gusts will also be possible.

...Upper Midwest...
Mid-level flow will be westerly today across much of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be
in place from eastern North Dakota to northern Wisconsin. South of
this front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to
pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass and move
east-southeastward during the afternoon. MLCAPE in some areas are
forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, with low-level
lapse rates becoming steep. This will be sufficient for isolated
severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly from southeast
Minnesota into Wisconsin, where some models suggest instability will
be stronger.

...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low will move southward across northern California
today. To the northwest of the low across the northern U.S., flow
will be from the south-southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen
across western Montana with upslope easterly flow located over much
of western Montana. As surface heating takes place today, an axis of
instability is forecast from northwest Montana extending
southeastward into far northwest Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms
will develop in the higher terrain and move northward along and near
this axis of instability. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep,
which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail
will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability
is forecast to be the strongest.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/26/2026


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SPC May 26, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
for parts of the Southeast, far west Texas, southern New Mexico,
central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead,
and northern Rockies.

...Southeast...
Water vapor imagery shows mid-level south-southwesterly flow over
the Southeast. At the surface, a 1011 mb low is analyzed over
eastern Mississippi with onshore southerly flow located from the
Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. In this area, surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F and the RAP has an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. A
line of strong thunderstorms is located along a low-level
convergence zone in far southeast Alabama, just to the west of the
instability axis. Also, the RAP shows 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km
shear. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in far southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia could be as great as 100 to 125 m2/s2, suggesting that an
isolated tornado threat will be possible. A few of the stronger
storms may also have an isolated wind-damage threat.

...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
southwestern New Mexico extending southeastward into far west Texas.
Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within a
weakly unstable airmass with the RAP showing MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
In addition, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear around 40
knots and low-level lapse rates are very steep over parts of far
west Texas. This environment may support a potential for isolated
severe wind gusts early this evening.

...Minnesota Arrowhead...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over southern Ontario. A line of strong thunderstorms is
ongoing ahead of a front across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Ahead of
the storms, a narrow axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
suggesting an isolated severe threat will continue for another hour
or so. The line is expected to weaken as it moves over the cooler
waters of Lake Superior later this evening.

...Northern Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota/Northwest Iowa/Southwest
Minnesota...
The latest RAP analysis shows an axis of moderate instability
located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Isolated
strong thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis from northeast
Nebraska into far northwest Iowa. Although deep-layer shear is
relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates will continue to
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.
Hail may also occur with the stronger cells. As the low-level jet
increases across the central Plains later this evening, convective
coverage is expected to increase. A cluster of strong thunderstorms,
that is currently in northeast Colorado, is forecast to move
northeastward across southwest Nebraska. Isolated severe wind gusts
may occur with some of these storms.

...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
far eastern Pacific to the northwest of Washington. A trough extends
southward just off the coast of the Washington and Oregon, with
southwesterly mid-level flow located over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. Within this flow, a pocket of weak instability is
analyzed by the RAP over northern Idaho and western Montana.
Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Very steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for
isolated severe gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2026


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SPC May 25, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.

...Minnesota Arrowhead...
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z
LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.

...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.

...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.

...Central Texas...
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/25/2026


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