SPC Oct 3, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunder to account for recent
trends. Please see previous discussion below.

..Thornton.. 10/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across
the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers
and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will
spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite
limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of
weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with
this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the
overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the
minimal instability forecast.

A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX
into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus
for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist
airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for
organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater
concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf
Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of
Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this
region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain
weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be
disorganized.


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SPC Oct 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Progressive westerlies will prevail over the northern half of the
CONUS through tonight, highlighted by fairly substantial shortwave
trough amplification over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As
a cold front shifts eastward across these regions, a modest increase
in moisture, steepening lapse rates and increasing forcing for
ascent will contribute to the potential for isolated thunderstorms,
such as have been ongoing across the Dakotas in the pre-dawn hours.
It is plausible that some stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts
could occur this afternoon, but severe potential is expected to
remain virtually nil.

Across the Southeast/Deep South, a slow-moving front extending from
the Carolinas southwestward toward the coastal plain of Texas will
remain a focus for thunderstorm development through the period.
Although ample moisture will support thunderstorms along and south
of the front, weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the
moist thermodynamic environment should considerably limit the
potential for organized severe convection.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/03/2026


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SPC Oct 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through the night.

... 01 UTC Update ...

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will continue along and
southeast of a slow moving frontal zone draped from the southern
Plains northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. Instability is rather
limited to the south of this front owing to poor lapse-rates, and
vertical shear is weak. Thus, while the occasional thunderstorm may
occur, the severe potential is low.

Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes may occur toward sunrise
across the north-central US. Here, a short-wave trough moving
through the stronger mid-level flow will overhead, bringing with it
modest large-scale ascent. Temperatures in the 40Fs to low 50Fs with
dewpoints in the 40Fs should limit instability and the overall
potential for more widespread thunderstorm coverage.

..Marsh.. 10/03/2026


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SPC Oct 2, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the previous outlook. See the discussion
below for more details.

..Karstens/Thornton.. 10/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances
east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.


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