SPC Mar 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening over parts of
the Carolinas and southern Virginia, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes
region tonight, as a cold front advances southward through the
Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible near and behind the
front this evening. No severe threat is forecast with this activity
or over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2026


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SPC Mar 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to
remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY. Isolated
lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10%
coverage.

..Hart.. 03/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.


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SPC Mar 27, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from the Ohio Valley into
North Carolina and Virginia but no severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the eastern U.S.
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Behind the front, isolated
thunderstorm development with a potential for a few strong gusts,
will be possible in weak instability this afternoon. Elsewhere
across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today or
tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/27/2026


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SPC Mar 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the southern Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a
subtle shortwave trough evident within the flow over far northwest
Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is located from central
Illinois east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the front, extending
northward into the cooler air about 150 statute miles. The best
environment currently appears to be located from far eastern Indiana
eastward to east of Columbus, Ohio, where RAP analysis shows a
west-to-east axis of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP
forecast soundings near this axis of instability have 0-6 km shear
in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
Cells are currently discrete within this environment, which will
continue to favor supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter appear likely with the more intense
supercells. In addition, low-level lapse rates are also steep, which
will support a wind-damage threat. A few gusts above 70 knots will
be possible. Also, forecast soundings within this unstable airmass
have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range,
suggesting that a tornado threat will continue with the more intense
supercells. The severe threat will likely be maximized within this
corridor over the next few hours...see MCD 293. The severe threat
should expand eastward across far eastern Ohio and into western
Pennsylvania.

Further west into parts of Indiana and Illinois, the strongest
storms are currently located near and to the east of Indianapolis.
Although the storms are not as strong westward into central and
northern Illinois, convective intensity is expected to increase as
the shortwave trough moves eastward across the state, along with the
exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered severe storms are expected
to develop over the next couple of hours, and a cluster or line
could become organized...see MCD 294. Isolated severe storms will
also be possible further west into parts of Missouri and far eastern
Kansas later this evening.

..Broyles.. 03/27/2026


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