SPC Feb 17, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper
Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.

...Western States/Coastal California...
A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle
south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a
strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California
late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold
temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While
gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm
potential is currently expected to remain low.

...Upper Midwest...
Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late
afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the
northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop
generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward
Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring
mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift
north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an
eastward-accelerating cold front.

Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while
capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few
thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern
Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind
gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong
deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise
become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond
across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough
to support severe hail with this elevated activity.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026


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SPC Feb 17, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of
California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into
the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.

...Pacific Coastal States...
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest
today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This
feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by
12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will
exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool
surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop
southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will
largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited
heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest
convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,
but severe storms are not currently forecast.

...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a
strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling
aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western
MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the
afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While
surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen
low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may
hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a
greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops
near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.
Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail
with this elevated activity.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026


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SPC Feb 17, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered
storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into
northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into
southern California.

...West Coast...
A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of
southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the
night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will
remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold
temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the
base of the trough.

To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures
aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing
shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL
sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with
isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and
a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA,
but severe weather is not expected.

..Jewell.. 02/17/2026


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SPC Feb 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of
thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of
the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and
brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the
afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the
upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving
eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.


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