SPC Jan 12, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms
may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...20z Update..
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS
today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm
potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be
along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL
Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across
the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level
moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday
morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable
surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will
remain mostly offshore.


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SPC Jan 12, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms
may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS
today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm
potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be
along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL
Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across
the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level
moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday
morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable
surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will
remain mostly offshore.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025


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SPC Jan 12, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms
may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight.

...Middle Gulf Coast...
Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist
over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from
the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over
the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing
warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level
theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late
tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted
destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to
focus offshore.

..Guyer.. 01/12/2025


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SPC Jan 12, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana
coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will
remain negligible across the nation through the period.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern
MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across
much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening
west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of
the MS River.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great
Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing
cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and
eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low
ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM.

...North-Central Gulf Coast...
Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period
over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of
LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms
well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may
develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs
atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate
saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while
elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation
shield, severe storms are unlikely.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025


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