SPC Oct 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook with this update. For
information on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2346.

..Weinman.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.


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SPC Oct 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Showers/some thunderstorms are common early today near the residual
front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Florida Peninsula.
A weak surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop over the
northeast Gulf today, with some guidance advertising an increase in
low/mid-tropospheric flow late today into tonight, as early day wind
profiles are otherwise weak (reference 12z observed sounding from
Tampa Bay). The more shear-optimistic guidance scenarios, via
strengthening/veering flow with height, suggest wind profiles could
trend conducive to weak/transient supercells. That said,
destabilization across the Peninsula near the front is questionable
with the expected persistence of marginal, thin CAPE profiles and
poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit
brief/transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for
persistent, rotating updrafts reaching near-shore/inland areas later
today into tonight currently appears low.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/06/2026


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SPC Oct 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A 500 mb upper trough will continue to eject into the Atlantic as
surface high pressure sets in from the Great Lakes to the East
Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast to the FL Peninsula through tonight, where an unstable
boundary layer, driven by 70s F surface dewpoints, remains in place.
A few lightning flashes may also occur over the next couple of hours
with ongoing isolated thunderstorms over the Great Basin, southern
CO/northern NM, and the Upper MS Valley given cooler temperatures
aloft.

..Squitieri.. 10/06/2026


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SPC Oct 5, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
Progressive northwesterly flow aloft will continue to reside over
the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada, with a prominent upper
trough shifting eastward over Quebec. Surface high pressure and
large-scale subsidence will generally prevail east of the
Mississippi River, while surface troughing becomes established
across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture.

Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, some thunderstorms are expected
near/south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated
low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into
northern New England as a cold front shifts eastward. A few
convectively enhanced wind gusts might even occur across this region
as lapse rates diurnally steepen.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/05/2026


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