SPC Apr 27, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys this
afternoon through this evening, accompanied by potential for a few
strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water vapor imagery shows a prominent shortwave trough promoting
elevated strong to severe convection across central and eastern
Kansas. This activity is expected to move north and eastward through
Iowa/Missouri/Wisconsin/northern Illinois into daybreak and perhaps
part of the afternoon for some areas. The outflow from this
convection should act to limit the northern extent of greater
destabilization during the afternoon and thus the greatest severe
threat. A surface low will track northeastward along the parent
shortwave. Though this low has trended downward in intensity in
recent model runs, strong low-level wind fields are expected within
the warm sector throughout the day and into the evening. Areas of
pre-frontal convergence and a cold front will be the focus for
convective development along with more strongly forced convection
tied to the shortwave trough. The front will be draped south and
westward into the Ozarks and the southern Plains.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
As mentioned, surface based buoyancy will be limited by early day
activity. The current expectation is for parts of central/eastern
Missouri into central/southern Illinois and western Kentucky to see
greater destabilization. There is activity ongoing within central
Missouri early this morning that may have some impact, however. This
is the source of greatest uncertainty for these regions. The
kinematic environment will certainly be favorable for supercells.
The moderate to strong 850 mb jet will also lead to potential for
several tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Lapse rates at
mid-levels will be rather steep. Large to very-large hail potential
is evident given the long hodographs. Some upscale growth into one
or more linear segments is expected to occur. This will increase
the threat for damaging winds. An increase in tornado probabilities
was considered. Given the questions regarding early day convection
and where favorable convergence zones/outflow boundaries might be
located reduces confidence. Convective trends into daybreak will
need to be closely monitored.

...Mid-South...
Models indicate potential for supercells along the cold front and
even potentially ahead of it. Forcing for ascent will be weaker, but
this may help to keep activity cellular longer. Some of this
activity could develop after 00Z. Mid-level lapse rates are expected
to be steep enough and mid-level flow strong enough to support large
to potentially very large hail and damaging winds. The tornado
threat will likely be lower given the time of day and tendency for
storms to be at least slightly elevated.

...Upper Midwest...
Observational and model trends suggest destabilization will be more
limited on account of convection at daybreak and beyond. Even so,
strong low-level and effective shear will still allow storms to be
organized and capable of large hail, damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes. There will be potential for both convection at daybreak
and also during the afternoon. The greatest potential for afternoon
supercells would be in parts of eastern Iowa along with the surface
low and colder air aloft.

...Western/central Texas...
As moisture returns westward during the evening, some model guidance
suggest convection might try to develop along the retreating
dryline. Buoyancy and shear would support a threat for large hail
and perhaps severe winds. However, mid-level ascent will be very
weak and models generally do not sustain these convective attempts.
Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence in development
increases.

..Wendt/Moore.. 04/27/2026


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SPC Apr 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of
the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of
strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are
possible.

...01Z Update...
A prominent shortwave trough now nearing the Colorado/Kansas border
is promoting elevated convection ahead of it. An 8.2 C/km mid-level
lapse rate was sampled on the 00Z DDC sounding this evening. These
steep lapse rates should shift eastward along with the shortwave
trough. Additional, stronger convection remains possible in parts of
central/eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Earlier convection
has complicated the low-level thermodynamic environment, though
large hail and damaging winds are possible with organized cells and
linear structures. The tornado threat through the evening is
somewhat less clear, but a deepening surface low should advect
richer moisture northward. Depending on storm mode and low-level
stability, tornadoes remain possible in parts of northern Oklahoma
and south-central Kansas later this evening. In the short term, the
greatest threat for a strong tornado is in southeast Kansas. In
Oklahoma into North Texas, the dryline is surging westward. This
area will become increasingly removed from large-scale ascent. An
isolated storm or two remain possible at least trough mid-evening.
Lastly, convection in Missouri and southeast Kansas will eventually
grow upscale. A buoyancy gradient within the Mid-South region may
serve as a focus for continued southeast movement through the
evening. Marginal wind and hail are possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 04/27/2026


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SPC Apr 26, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.

...20Z Update...
The forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The main
changes made to this outlook were to expand severe probabilities
farther to the east to account for an uptick in severe potential
later tonight, as depicted by some of the latest high-resolution
guidance.

Overall, uncertainties remain regarding precisely where the
strongest storms are going to occur. OK Mesonet data over the past
few hours have depicted some lowering of dewpoints in west-central
OK, with a slightly diminished CU field noted. However, several
guidance members depict supercellular development in the 02-06Z
period over northern OK, likely in part to the strengthening of a
low-level jet. Given impressive shear profiles and 8.5-9 C/km
mid-level lapse rates expected in this region overnight, it is
plausible that the strongest storms for the remainder of the period
(to 12Z Monday morning) may occur here, with 2+ inch diameter hail
and perhaps strong tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for
introducing higher tornado probabilities over northern OK is the
possible late storm initiation and associated boundary layer
stabilization, which may dampen the robustness of tornado production
with these storms.

Visible satellite imagery depicts more agitated CU centered over
Baylor County, TX, which may hint at locally higher/less conditional
severe threat across far north-central TX later this afternoon and
evening. However, synoptic forcing is weak, and if storms form, they
will likely be sparse, precluding the addition of higher severe
probabilities in this region at this time.

..Squitieri.. 04/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk.

Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.


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SPC Apr 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of
strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are
possible.

...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on
latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk
has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of
both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated
supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded
southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more
conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe
probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a
potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late
tonight into early Monday morning.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm
development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with
persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO
by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface
based.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low
developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening.
Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to
develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central
OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a
fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm
front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are
for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale
ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading
the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak
diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it
appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual
erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting
shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample
low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail
(2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable
environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day,
but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening
and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A
somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the
triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for
large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster
eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO
late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds would exist.

Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.

...ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning
from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient
low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this
convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells
across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past
couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form
on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains
unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet
forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional
convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and
damaging wind threat.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/26/2026


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