SPC Aug 1, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible today across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies and from southeast Arizona
into southwest New Mexico.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southeastward across
the mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front
advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A
north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place ahead
of the front, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm this morning across the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop. Low-level convergence ahead of
the front and large-scale ascent associated with the trough will
result in scattered to widespread convective development this
afternoon. Thunderstorm intensification is expected to first take
place in the Ohio Valley in the early afternoon, with additional
more discrete cells developing southward into the Tennessee Valley.
By mid to late afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected
to organize and move eastward toward the southern Appalachians.

Along the axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range during the afternoon from eastern Tennessee
northward into far southeast Indiana. Near this axis, a low-level
speed max is forecast to develop with 850 mb winds speeds increasing
to around 30 knots. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to around 200 ms/s2. This should be enough for an isolated
tornado threat, mainly with supercells that remain discrete. The
tornado potential should be minimized in areas where too many storms
form. During the late afternoon, a transition to linear mode is
expected. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any line that can
become organized, with this potential persisting into the early
evening.

...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be in place from west Texas northward into eastern New
Mexico, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 50s to the mid
60s F. Along and near this axis, moderate instability is expected to
develop by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures in the higher
terrain will aid convective initiation, with storms forming and
moving south-southeastward into the lower elevation of eastern New
Mexico. The storms will eventually reach parts of west Texas during
the evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will
likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
An axis of low-level moisture and instability will be in place today
across far southeastern Arizona. Along and near this axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, low to
mid-level lapse rates will be very steep as temperatures heat up
this afternoon. Storms that form within the stronger instability
could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 08/01/2026


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SPC Aug 1, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible this evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible over the southern High Plains.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level
trough over the upper Mississippi Valley with westerly divergent
flow aloft over the Ozarks. At the surface, a 1003 mb low is located
over eastern Iowa with a cold front extending south-southwestward
across central and southwest Missouri. Ahead of the front, low-level
convergence and moisture is maximized. Surface dewpoints within this
zone are in the 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range. Strong thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the
instability axis over much of eastern Missouri. The storms will
continue to move eastward toward the Mississippi River this evening
and will eventually cross into southern Illinois.

RAP forecast soundings across south-central Missouri early this
evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225 m2/s2 range. This will
support an isolated tornado threat with supercells. A tornado or two
will be possible over the next couple of hours with cells that
remain discrete. A gradual transition to linear mode is expected
toward mid evening. The line that is currently to the west of St.
Louis is expected to grow upscale, developing southward with time.
The line will eventually reach southern Illinois and northeast
Arkansas. A wind-damage threat will be possible along the more
intense parts of this line segment.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow is northwesterly over much of the southern Plains. At
the surface, a cold front is located from eastern New Mexico into
northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along a narrow corridor of 60+ F surface dewpoints just to
the south of the front. Within this corridor, the RAP shows moderate
instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Forecast
soundings early this evening along the instability axis have 0-6 km
shear around 25 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km
range. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads to the south of the
front exceed 30 degrees F in some areas. The instability along with
the steep lapse rates will support a threat for severe wind gusts
for a couple more hours this evening.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2026


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SPC Jul 31, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across
the middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Isolated to widely
scattered severe storms are also possible across the
central/southern High Plains into the southern Plains this afternoon
through early evening.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The SLGT Risk in the Middle MS Valley was expanded
southward into northern Arkansas -- driven by 15-percent wind
probabilities. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to
lower 90s amid middle/upper 70s dewpoints -- yielding
moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. High-resolution guidance is
in good agreement, depicting a southeastward-moving line of storms
moving into this environment tonight. Despite a gradual increase in
nocturnal cooling and boundary-layer static stability, the rich
moisture and strengthening 30-kt west-southwesterly LLJ should
support a continued risk of scattered wind damage into the overnight
hours.

Farther north, the MRGL Risk was trimmed in portions of IL, where
limited air mass recovery in the wake of ongoing convection will
temper the severe risk this afternoon/evening.

..Weinman.. 07/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026/

...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the central MN/IA border
vicinity. A cold front extends southwestward from this low into
southwest KS before then arcing more westward across the OK
Panhandle and northwestward through southeast CO. A pre-frontal
trough also extends from this low to another weak low in the
south-central KS/north-central OK border vicinity (about 25-30 miles
north of Enid, OK), before continuing southwestward through the TX
South Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from
southwest OK through southwest MO and southern IL within the warm
conveyor preceding these surface boundaries. Extensive cloud cover
associated with these showers and storms extends from OK into MO and
IL as well, with additional cloud cover near the surface low over
much of MN, IA, WI, and IL.

Sheltered environment across the warm sector beneath this cloud
cover is characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s. General
expectation is for this airmass to destabilize as the ongoing
showers and thunderstorm continue to shift eastward/northeastward
and skies clear before the arrival of the pre-frontal trough and
cold front. The primary low will continue to occlude, and the
development of a secondary triple point farther south across
northern MO appears likely. Afternoon thunderstorm development is
anticipated along the cold front and pre-frontal trough as well as
near the surface low and triple point. Effective deep-layer shear
around 30 to 40 kt should be sufficient for organized storm
structures. A more cellular mode is likely early in the convective
cycle, before trends towards a more linear/bowing mode over time as
cold pools amalgamate. Given the overall moist profiles,
water-loaded downbursts appear to be the primary risk during the
more initial cellular mode before cold-pool driven gusts become more
likely during the linear phase. The threat for damaging winds should
spread southeastward regionally through late afternoon and evening.

A corridor of more southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly)
wind is anticipated south of this triple point, combining with low
to mid level southwesterlies to support moderate low-level shear and
an associated threat for brief tornadoes.

...Front Range/Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle/South Plains...
Storms are expected to develop and increase in coverage across the
high terrain through mid/late afternoon before then subsequently
spreading southeastward into the very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer across the lower elevations. High-based, outflow-dominant
storm structures could support the potential for strong to severe
gusts. Additionally, interaction between these storms (and
associated outflow) and the southward progressing front may occur
from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains. This
interaction could result in a corridor of greater wind gust
potential from east-central NM into the TX South Plains during the
late afternoon.

...Western AR into southwest OK/northwest TX...
Thunderstorms will likely redevelop on scattered basis on the front
later this afternoon and evening. The very warm and moist afternoon
boundary layer will support the potential for severe caliber wind
gusts regionally. Deep-layer wind profiles will generally be weak,
but stronger mid/high-level northwesterlies could support a degree
of storm organization as storms cluster and spread
south-southeastward.


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SPC Jul 31, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
the middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Isolated severe storms may
also occur across the southern Plains and central/southern High
Plains this afternoon through early evening.

...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks...
Fairly extensive elevated convection exists this morning across
Missouri into western Illinois and eastern Iowa. A positive-tilt
trough over the Corn Belt will continue southeastward today toward
the middle Mississippi Valley, with an enhanced belt of
northwesterly flow aloft overlapping the near-frontal environment as
a cold front spreads southeastward across the lower Missouri Valley
toward the Ozarks.

Related to the early day convection, some uncertainty exists
regarding the north-northeastward extent of the unstable warm sector
later today from northeast Missouri into eastern Iowa/northwest
Illinois. Regardless, a moist air mass will reside ahead of the
front, with moderate to locally strong destabilization expected,
especially across a broad part of central/southwest Missouri into
peak heating, as early day clouds abate.

Aided by the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, effective shear of
30-35 kt will generally exist across the Missouri Ozarks, with
somewhat stronger deep-layer winds/vertical shear (40+ kt) northward
across eastern/northern Missouri into Iowa/Illinois. Some supercells
will be possible. Some hail could occur, and low-level shear/SRH
could support tornado potential as well, mainly across eastern
Missouri and possibly nearby western Illinois/southeast Iowa.
However, damaging winds should emerge as the most prevalent severe
risk as storms spread southeastward regionally through late
afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/northern Texas...
While some thunderstorms and related cloud cover exist this morning,
cloud breaks will lead to intense heating later this afternoon ahead
of a south/southeastward-advancing front. Thunderstorms will likely
redevelop on scattered basis later this afternoon and persist into
the evening. The hot/moist afternoon boundary layer will support the
potential for severe caliber wind gusts regionally. Deep-layer wind
profiles will generally be weak, but somewhat stronger
mid/high-level northwesterly winds could support a degree of storm
organization as storms cluster and spread south-southeastward.

...Front Range/Raton Mesa and central/southern High Plains...
Storms are expected to develop and increase in coverage and
intensity through mid/late afternoon initially near the high
terrain, subsequently spreading southeastward toward lower
elevations. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a
potential for isolated severe gusts. Hail could also occur with the
stronger updrafts in vicinity of the Raton Mesa and near the
Colorado Front Range.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/31/2026


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