Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, as
well as southeast Virginia. Isolated severe wind gusts may also
still occur in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley
to the Mid-Atlantic, as well as parts of the Northeast and
Southwest.
...Southeast Virginia...
Supercells which have developed across parts of southeast VA appear
to be anchored to a surface boundary, and they should continue to
pose some threat for large hail this evening as they track
southeastward. Although low-level flow remains modest, locally
greater effective SRH is present near this boundary, and a brief
tornado appears possible. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds may
also occur across parts of southeast VA with a loosely organized
cluster moving east-southeastward over the next few hours. See
Mesoscale Discussion 1982 for more details on the near-term severe
threat across this region.
..Gleason/Squitieri.. 08/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026/
...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
Thunderstorms have largely weakened through the early morning across
the middle Missouri Valley, with more of a lingering persistence
across Illinois/Indiana. Scattered showers remain rather common,
however, regionally with semi-prevalent cloud cover. Multiple MCVs
persist regionally at midday, including across central Iowa, and
more prominently near the Nebraska/Iowa border. Regional WSR-88D
data from Omaha/Des Moines/Davenport continue to sample enhanced
westerlies (35-50 kt) between 4-8 km AGL in association with these
MCVs.
Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the
amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that
occurs along the southern periphery of the residual convection and
ahead of the aforementioned slow-moving MCVs. Ample low-level
moisture is in place, and differential heating between the residual
cloud debris may yield an effective warm-front-like zone across
southern Iowa or near the Iowa/Missouri border. The airmass along
and south of this is forecast to destabilize and become moderately
to strongly unstable by the late afternoon. This should result in
renewed thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening,
with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts and
potentially some initial supercells. Modestly enhanced low-level
winds/SRH could yield a tornado risk. Strong wind gusts will
otherwise be possible with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as with
any bowing segments through this evening.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Outflows/differential heating across the lower Ohio Valley will
influenced thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon, while storms
are starting to develop/increase across the Appalachians vicinity.
Vertical shear will generally be weak, but strong updrafts and ample
moisture will yield the potential for wet microbursts regionally.
...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower Colorado River
Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four
Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with
orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered
convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then
move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the
central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient
for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.
...Northeast States...
Influenced by strong northwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger to
locally severe relatively low-topped storms may occur this afternoon
across northern/upstate New York into southern New England, with
strong/gusty winds as the primary hazard as convection progresses
southeastward.
...Lower Colorado River ...
With a moist air mass across the region, strong heating will support
afternoon airmass destabilization, yielding moderate buoyancy this
afternoon. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is anticipated over the
southern Nevada vicinity, supporting the potential for isolated
strong wind gusts.
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