Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.
...Southern High Plains through the south-central Plains into the
Midwest...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a belt of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Plains, situated between a slow-moving upper low over the western
Great Basin and expansive upper ridging centered over the upper
TX/western LA coast. Based on recent mesoanalysis, the strongest
portion of this southwesterly flow currently extends from the
southern AZ/NM border into south-central CO, colocated with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Recent surface analysis places a
pair of lows just downstream of this stronger flow aloft, one over
southeast CO and the other over central KS. A cold front connects
these two lows and continues northeastward from the central KS low
to another low over northern Lake Michigan. Airmass south of this
low is very moist, with upper 60s reaching into south-central KS and
low 70s dewpoints reaching up through central OK.
Expectation is for the embedded shortwave trough to progress quickly
northeastward today, reaching the central High Plains by late this
afternoon before continuing northeastward through the central Plains
this evening. As it does, the frontal zone across KS will sharpen
and initially southwesterly surface winds will back, becoming more
southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly) by the late
afternoon. Strong heating is anticipated along and south of the
front as well, with afternoon temperatures in the low 90s. Any
boundary-layer mixing will be offset by continued low-level moisture
advection, with afternoon dewpoints likely remaining in the mid to
upper 60s along the front in KS and east of the dryline in the
eastern TX Panhandle. These conditions are expected to result in
airmass destabilization around 21Z. Lapse rates will be not be
overly steep, but warm and moist low-levels will still result in
moderate to strong buoyancy.
Increasing convergence along the front and dryline within this
destabilized and buoyant airmass is forecast to result in convective
initiation. The strongest mid-level flow will be displaced north and
west of the frontal zone, but mid-level flow along and south of the
front should still be strong enough to support moderate deep-layer
vertical shear and the potential for an initially supercellular
storm mode. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be
the primary hazards. A few gusts from 65 to 75 mph are possible.
Tornado potential will remain low, but ample low-level moisture
coupled with an increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening
could result in a tornado or two near the front. Modest upscale
growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and
western/southern IL. However, the severe threat should become more
isolated with time given increasing nocturnal stabilization and
widespread storm interactions.
...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although
clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.
Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a brief tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/13/2026
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