tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75653567469549485232024-03-18T08:04:11.350-05:00CHICAGO WEATHER STATION | Chicago Weather ForecastChicago Weather Station provides Chicago weather data from Chicago's official O'Hare International Airport and forecast information from Chicagoland.CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comBlogger3829125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-19084198111523418222024-03-18T08:03:00.001-05:002024-03-18T08:03:35.429-05:00SPC Mar 18, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON<br />
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND MUCH OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated large hail and wind damage is possible this afternoon<br />
across central Florida and along much of the Florida Atlantic coast.<br />
<br />
...FL this afternoon...<br />
A northern stream shortwave trough will dig from the mid MS Valley<br />
this morning to the southern Appalachians this evening and off the<br />
Atlantic coast by early Tuesday. An associated stalled surface<br />
front across north FL this morning will begin to accelerate<br />
southeastward across the peninsula this evening through early<br />
Tuesday. The more pronounced midlevel height falls and forcing for<br />
ascent will pass north of FL, leaving shallow ascent along the front<br />
and/or differential heating boundaries (from convection moving<br />
inland from the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning) to focus<br />
thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate<br />
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates and 50<br />
kt midlevel flow with relatively straight hodographs could support a<br />
supercell capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in<br />
diameter) and damaging gusts near 60 mph. The severe threat will<br />
peak by early-mid afternoon and then diminish into this evening. <br />
<br />
...AZ/southern CA through this evening...<br />
As part of a Rex block, a closed low over AZ will drift westward<br />
today as an embedded speed max pivots from northern AZ toward<br />
southern CA. Low-level moisture will remain modest, but cool<br />
midlevel temperatures and daytime heating will contribute to at<br />
least weak buoyancy (SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg). A few clusters of<br />
storms will form in the main band of ascent over the rim this<br />
afternoon, while other storms are expected to spread southwestward<br />
off the higher terrain toward the southern CA coast. The threat for<br />
severe storms will remain quite low, but the strongest storms could<br />
produce gusty outflow winds and small hail.<br />
<br />
..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T4FB5G">http://dlvr.it/T4FB5G</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-85398722809609755522024-03-18T02:05:00.001-05:002024-03-18T02:05:37.076-05:00SPC Mar 18, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1237 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF<br />
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the Florida<br />
Peninsula through the late afternoon before the severe risk<br />
diminishes by early evening.<br />
<br />
...FL Peninsula...<br />
A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Lakes/MS Valley will<br />
pivot east through the Eastern Seaboard during the period. The<br />
primary belt of stronger ascent/flow associated with the upper<br />
trough will move across the southern Appalachian states and be<br />
displaced from the FL Peninsula. In the low levels, a cold front<br />
will gradually push south during the day and reach the FL Straits by<br />
late evening. However, before frontal passage, a moist airmass<br />
characterized by mainly 60s dewpoints across the Peninsula, will<br />
become weakly to moderately unstable by late morning into the<br />
afternoon (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong mid to high-level westerly<br />
flow will aid in some storm organization and perhaps yield a couple<br />
of transient supercells. Models currently indicate isolated to<br />
widely scattered thunderstorms developing during day. Some of the<br />
stronger storms may be capable of a localized threat for wind damage<br />
and/or hail risk. The stronger thunderstorms will likely weaken by<br />
early evening with the severe threat diminishing.<br />
<br />
..Smith/Supinie.. 03/18/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T4DQ9K">http://dlvr.it/T4DQ9K</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-6078646783809064872024-03-17T14:01:00.001-05:002024-03-17T14:01:11.504-05:00SPC Mar 17, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH<br />
OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today<br />
from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area.<br />
<br />
...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big<br />
Bend...<br />
A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the<br />
southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the<br />
west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast<br />
region. <br />
<br />
West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent<br />
across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection<br />
beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast<br />
west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest<br />
upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However,<br />
aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly<br />
brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low<br />
to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook.<br />
<br />
East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal<br />
areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern<br />
Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting<br />
continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big<br />
Bend region through tonight.<br />
<br />
..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T4CSmq">http://dlvr.it/T4CSmq</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-51766405149692621302024-03-17T08:03:00.001-05:002024-03-17T08:03:35.051-05:00SPC Mar 17, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM<br />
SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern<br />
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.<br />
<br />
...Gulf coast through this evening...<br />
A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a<br />
northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the<br />
upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the<br />
amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist<br />
over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ.<br />
<br />
A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move<br />
generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along<br />
a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico.<br />
As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore,<br />
with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern<br />
comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated)<br />
convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across<br />
southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture<br />
and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the<br />
FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will<br />
diminish by this evening.<br />
<br />
Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm<br />
development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be<br />
nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm<br />
sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a<br />
reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the<br />
Marginal risk area from TX.<br />
<br />
..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T4BtlL">http://dlvr.it/T4BtlL</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-84203541416972165572024-03-17T02:06:00.001-05:002024-03-17T02:06:11.412-05:00SPC Mar 17, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM<br />
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas<br />
eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening.<br />
<br />
...Gulf Coast states...<br />
A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the<br />
northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough<br />
amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped<br />
along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday<br />
before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf<br />
Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing<br />
across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A<br />
relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong<br />
deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe<br />
thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of<br />
thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually<br />
move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for<br />
strong thunderstorms diminishes.<br />
<br />
..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T4BLxN">http://dlvr.it/T4BLxN</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-51643722196045699332024-03-16T02:06:00.001-05:002024-03-16T02:06:11.625-05:00SPC Mar 16, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF<br />
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south<br />
central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night.<br />
Damaging hail and wind may occur.<br />
<br />
...South Central/Southeast Texas...<br />
<br />
Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain<br />
surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model<br />
guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across<br />
northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley.<br />
Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may<br />
prove robust with severe possible.<br />
<br />
Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep<br />
south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the<br />
state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains,<br />
large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable<br />
surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak<br />
short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period.<br />
Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted<br />
surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may<br />
be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest<br />
boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but<br />
forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km<br />
lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so,<br />
boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE,<br />
though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited.<br />
<br />
Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country,<br />
but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest<br />
of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the<br />
beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor,<br />
much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate<br />
across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours.<br />
With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust<br />
convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface<br />
heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast<br />
soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are<br />
possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity.<br />
<br />
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T48LQ4">http://dlvr.it/T48LQ4</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-39487492828915872992024-03-15T02:06:00.001-05:002024-03-15T02:06:12.862-05:00SPC Mar 15, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF<br />
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA REGION...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across<br />
portions of south-central Texas and over parts of<br />
Mississippi/Alabama region.<br />
<br />
...South-central TX...<br />
<br />
Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will<br />
encourage surface anticyclone to settle south across the Plains<br />
today, though some weakening is expected across the southern Plains<br />
late in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak<br />
midlevel short-wave trough is approaching south TX early this<br />
morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the lower MS by<br />
18z as associated 500mb speed max translates downstream into the<br />
central Gulf States. As a result, neutral-weak height rises are<br />
expected across south-central TX by afternoon.<br />
<br />
As this low-latitude short wave approaches higher-quality moisture,<br />
there is some concern that early-day elevated convection may<br />
develop. Several HREF members suggest isolated supercells initiate<br />
ahead of this feature. However, forecast soundings are quite capped<br />
so any activity should remain isolated.<br />
<br />
Of more concern is the strong surface heating anticipated across<br />
northeast Mexico into portions of south TX ahead of the synoptic<br />
front. Forecast soundings ahead of the boundary suggest convective<br />
temperatures will be breached as readings warm into the lower 80s.<br />
NAM sounding for DRT at 22z exhibits negligible CINH with SBCAPE on<br />
the order of 2500 J/kg with a temp/dew point of 83/62F. Strong<br />
surface-6km bulk shear and weak frontal convergence favor<br />
thunderstorm development and supercells appear possible. Large hail,<br />
some of it potentially bigger than 2 inches, is the primary risk<br />
with these storms. While convection should initiate due to strong<br />
heating, thunderstorms will likely linger well into the overnight<br />
hours as an increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half<br />
of the period into this portion of TX.<br />
<br />
...MS/AL...<br />
<br />
Southern-stream short-wave trough will approach the lower MS Valley<br />
around 18z before advancing into the southern Appalachian region by<br />
16/00z. In response to this feature, LLJ will be focused across<br />
MS/AL early, then veer into the west across GA as the short wave<br />
progresses downstream. Synoptic front will likely prove instrumental<br />
in convective development as it advances slowly southeast across the<br />
Gulf States. Forecast profiles suggest organized convection is<br />
possible, with some risk for supercells given the strong shear and<br />
modest buoyancy. While low-level SRH is not particularly strong, a<br />
tornado or two can not be ruled out with this activity, though<br />
damaging winds may be the greatest risk.<br />
<br />
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/15/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T45hDZ">http://dlvr.it/T45hDZ</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-80076622665045422982024-03-14T14:01:00.001-05:002024-03-14T14:01:39.009-05:00SPC Mar 14, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS<br />
OF FAR NORTH TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes<br />
are expected from parts of north-central Texas into the Midwest and<br />
Mid-South. The greatest overall severe threat still appears to be<br />
across eastern Oklahoma and far North Texas to the Ozarks.<br />
<br />
...Missouri eastward into Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio...<br />
A complex scenario is unfolding for today, given rather subtle<br />
large-scale ascent across much of the area, but with a very<br />
favorable background thermodynamic environment coupled with strong<br />
deep-layer shear. <br />
<br />
A line of strong/locally severe storms is ongoing this morning<br />
across Indiana, which will continue eastward this afternoon into<br />
Ohio. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with<br />
these storms, continuing across western Ohio before some weakening<br />
eventually occurs given weakening instability with eastward extent<br />
into the upper Ohio Valley.<br />
<br />
In the wake of these storms, but ahead of a sagging cold front,<br />
airmass recovery is underway. Clouds have cleared across Illinois<br />
and for the most part Missouri as well, ahead of the front and in<br />
the wake of earlier storms. Ongoing heating, beneath steep lapse<br />
rates aloft, will result in a moderately unstable warm sector this<br />
afternoon. CAMs continue to suggest redevelopment of more cellular<br />
-- eventually clustered -- convection across this region this<br />
afternoon, and eventually (presuming ample airmass recovery can<br />
occur) into Indiana and possibly/eventually western Ohio. Though<br />
low-level flow behind the initial band of Indiana storms will likely<br />
remain somewhat veered, which may limit more substantial tornado<br />
risk, very large hail is expected, along with damaging winds and a<br />
couple of tornadoes. Storms could eventually grow upscale this<br />
evening, spreading across the Tennessee Valley region accompanied by<br />
continued severe risk.<br />
<br />
...North Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma to the Mid<br />
Mississippi Valley area...<br />
Storms have developed rapidly over the past hour across portions of<br />
far northern Texas and into south-central Oklahoma near the slowly<br />
advancing front/dryline, where heating beneath steep mid-level lapse<br />
rates has resulted in development of 2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer<br />
CAPE. With 50 kt mid-level southwesterlies across the region,<br />
deep-layer shear is supportive of updraft rotation, and thus<br />
associated potential for very large hail, along with locally severe<br />
wind gusts. Low-level southerlies are contributing to sufficient<br />
shear for a couple of tornadoes late this morning/early this<br />
afternoon. However, gradual veering, and some weakening, of the<br />
low-level wind field is expected, which should temper tornado risk<br />
to some degree. Still, a couple of tornadoes are expected with<br />
stronger/sustained supercells.<br />
<br />
With time, severe/supercell storms will spread eastward across the<br />
Ozarks/Arklatex, likely clustering to some degree into this evening,<br />
though with supercell structures persisting. Very large hail,<br />
locally damaging wind gusts, and potential for a couple of tornadoes<br />
will continue, eventually reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area.<br />
<br />
A few CAMs continue to suggest potential for overnight development<br />
of storms across portions of central Texas, potential slightly<br />
elevated atop of a slightly stable boundary layer. Given sufficient<br />
shear and the steep lapse-rate environment, conditional risk for<br />
very large hail remains evident.<br />
<br />
..Goss/Lyons.. 03/14/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T44Zfz">http://dlvr.it/T44Zfz</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-85897552625344837522024-03-14T08:03:00.001-05:002024-03-14T08:03:41.355-05:00SPC Mar 14, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0757 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS<br />
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND<br />
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe<br />
thunderstorm gusts are expected from parts of north-central Texas<br />
into the Midwest and Mid-South. The greatest overall severe threat<br />
still appears to be across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and<br />
southern Missouri.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
In mid/upper levels, the pattern will slow considerably and become<br />
blocky over the western CONUS, as a closed cyclone continues to<br />
retrograde south-southwestward across the southern Great Basin and<br />
southern CA. The associated/cut-off 500-mb low should stall near<br />
the Imperial Valley by 12Z tomorrow, with troughing southward over<br />
Baja and northeastward over southwestern WY. A broad swath of<br />
southwest flow aloft will extend downstream of the cyclone, across<br />
the southern Plains, lower/mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio<br />
Valley. Weak synoptic-scale height rises are expected over much of<br />
OK, AR, east/north TX, and LA, in response to the cyclonic<br />
retrogression farther west.<br />
<br />
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near TOP with cold front<br />
southwestward across northwestern OK to the TX Panhandle, and warm<br />
front over northern portions of MO/IL/IN to central OH. A dryline<br />
was drawn from central OK across west-central TX. The dryline is<br />
expected to move only slightly eastward through the day, being<br />
positioned over central/east-central to south-central OK and north-<br />
central/central TX during mid/late afternoon. A combination of the<br />
cold front and convective outflow will overtake the dryline over MO<br />
and OK by late afternoon and evening, and the front should catch the<br />
dryline over north TX overnight. Meanwhile, a sequence of<br />
convective outflows -- already underway across parts of the Midwest<br />
and forecast to continue through the day -- will shunt the effective<br />
baroclinic zone and best regional convective foci south of the<br />
synoptic warm-frontal position.<br />
<br />
...Ozarks to north TX and Mid-South...<br />
Scattered thunderstorms should develop as early as midday along and<br />
east of the OK/TX dryline, and increase in coverage/intensity<br />
through the evening, while shifting eastward into AR, perhaps<br />
reaching parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions<br />
overnight. Supercells with tornadoes (some strong), locally very<br />
large/destructive hail, and severe gusts will be possible this<br />
afternoon into early evening. Activity should evolve into one or<br />
two dominant quasi-linear segments with the threat trending more<br />
toward wind and sporadic QLCS/embedded tornadoes with time this<br />
evening and overnight.<br />
<br />
Continued theta-e advection east of the dryline, amidst strong<br />
diurnal heating, will erode MLCINH, which already did not appear<br />
particularly strong in the 12Z OUN sounding. Modified RAOBs and<br />
forecast soundings over eastern OK this afternoon suggest peak/<br />
preconvective MLCAPE reaching the 2500-3000 J/kg range. Increasing<br />
inflow-layer moisture beneath favorable deep shear (effective-shear<br />
magnitudes 45-55 kt) yield hail over 3 inches in diameter when 2D<br />
hail models and historical analogs are applied. The duration of the<br />
threat, as well as the potential for tornadoes once hodographs<br />
enlarge greatly in late afternoon/evening, will depend on the number<br />
of relatively discrete supercells remaining. That is uncertain,<br />
given a substantial component of deep-layer flow parallel to the<br />
likely corridor of greatest forcing, which suggest a transition to<br />
messier convective modes. However, at least a few tornadoes are<br />
possible, including those with strong damage potential. Upscale<br />
evolution to an MCS appears possible this evening into tonight,<br />
spreading toward the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley regions.<br />
<br />
A separate area of convection also may develop this afternoon into<br />
early evening east of the modest EML plume, over parts of the Mid-<br />
South/Delta region. The environment will be characterized by rich<br />
low-level moisture (dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s to low<br />
70s F), subtle mass confluence/convergence, and weak CINH. While<br />
low-level flow/shear will be modest, enough mid/upper-level flow<br />
will spread over the area to support a mix of multicell and<br />
supercell modes, with damaging gusts, large hail possible, and a<br />
marginal tornado threat. Forecast soundings reasonably depict a<br />
deep troposphere occupied by MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000<br />
J/kg range, and around 30-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. <br />
Ultimately, the main area of convection from the west and northwest<br />
also may shift into this area overnight, overtaking any remaining<br />
warm-sector activity and bringing severe probabilities as well.<br />
<br />
...Midwest/Ohio Valley region...<br />
Bands of thunderstorms with trailing, progressive outflows are<br />
ongoing across portions of IL/MO. This activity should continue<br />
offering sporadic severe gusts and isolated potential for an<br />
embedded tornado or two, while moving rapidly east-northeastward<br />
this morning. Severe-gust and tornado threats may focus best along<br />
the warm front and leading outflow boundary. Those boundaries are<br />
where low-level convergence/vorticity will be maximized. However,<br />
severe potential also may be tempered regionally by the early-<br />
morning instability minimum in the boundary layer. See SPC severe<br />
thunderstorm watches 39-40 and related mesoscale discussions for<br />
near-term details. Some re-intensification of the combined complex<br />
may occur in parts of IN and perhaps KY today, as it encounters a<br />
plume of diurnal and warm-advection-related destabilization, before<br />
outrunning that plume.<br />
<br />
Farther west and southwest across portions of eastern/southeastern<br />
MO and up the lower Ohio Valley, a conditionally concerning threat<br />
is apparent for tornadoes, large to very large hail and severe wind<br />
from another potential round of convection this afternoon and<br />
evening. Where the environment is undisturbed by (or can recover at<br />
least mostly from) morning convection, strong deep-layer shear and<br />
favorable moisture/destabilization will support potential for long-<br />
lasting supercells and bowing clusters. Along and within an ill-<br />
defined distance north of the residual, diurnally destabilized<br />
outflow boundary, enlarged low-level hodographs and maximized<br />
boundary-layer shear/vorticity should concentrate tornado potential.<br />
At this time, however, with<br />
1. Outflow still being newly produced, and<br />
2. Its depth/character not well-resolved yet by higher-resolution<br />
convective guidance, mesoscale uncertainties over the position and<br />
character of the boundary remain too great to assign larger<br />
unconditional risk at this point. A focused corridor of enhanced-<br />
level probabilities may need to be introduced once the timing and<br />
location of the near-boundary threat become clearer.<br />
<br />
..Edwards/Dean.. 03/14/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T43lKy">http://dlvr.it/T43lKy</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-75541824249149310832024-03-14T02:06:00.001-05:002024-03-14T02:06:14.075-05:00SPC Mar 14, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK<br />
TO SOUTHERN MO...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very<br />
large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible<br />
from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most<br />
likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into<br />
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and<br />
evening.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into<br />
southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse<br />
over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern<br />
Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur<br />
between these two waves across the south-central states.<br />
<br />
...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South...<br />
Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent<br />
upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating<br />
along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should<br />
foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development<br />
from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and<br />
moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain<br />
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail.<br />
Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late<br />
afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly<br />
widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of<br />
this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While<br />
low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps<br />
not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also<br />
strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster<br />
an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across<br />
southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment<br />
of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation<br />
should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution.<br />
Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic<br />
occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend<br />
should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the<br />
surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity. <br />
<br />
...Mid-MS Valley to OH...<br />
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface<br />
low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for<br />
most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an<br />
attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential<br />
for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to<br />
move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting<br />
in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is<br />
expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the<br />
instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon.<br />
<br />
The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the<br />
effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon<br />
redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as<br />
the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers<br />
confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable<br />
setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep<br />
mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer<br />
shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few<br />
tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have<br />
expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased<br />
extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas.<br />
<br />
..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T4303L">http://dlvr.it/T4303L</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-5670345078912744172024-03-13T08:02:00.001-05:002024-03-13T08:02:40.448-05:00SPC Mar 13, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0756 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF<br />
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few<br />
tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of<br />
the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe<br />
storms may occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern<br />
Plains.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
The mid/upper-level synoptic pattern will amplify through the period<br />
and into day 2, as a shortwave trough now over the interior<br />
Northwest digs mostly southward and strengthens. The main vorticity<br />
max, then over the Great Basin, and the associated/developing closed<br />
500-mb circulation, will make their closest approach to the outlook<br />
area during the afternoon into early evening. Meanwhile, smaller<br />
perturbations -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over<br />
southwestern and eastern CO -- will move northeastward toward<br />
positions over northern NE and western KS by 00Z. This will occur<br />
in a regime of broadly difluent flow aloft, leftward of the<br />
500-300-mb jet maxima. By 12Z, the 500-mb low that will anchor a<br />
multi-day, cutoff Southwestern cyclone should be located near LAS. <br />
A series of vorticity lobes/maxima will extend from the southeastern<br />
quadrant of the cyclone, over AZ, northeastward across the central<br />
Plains to near southern Lake Michigan.<br />
<br />
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near MCI and between<br />
SPD-LBL, connected by a quasistationary frontal zone that arched<br />
across southeastern KS and northwestern OK. The western low should<br />
deepen and migrate eastward then northeastward across western/<br />
central KS into this evening, prompting the boundary to move<br />
northward across central/eastern KS and central/northern MO as a<br />
warm front. A dryline -- initially analyzed from a frontal<br />
intersection over northern OK to west-central TX then southward into<br />
Coahuila -- should mix eastward today. The dryline should arch from<br />
central to southeastern KS, northeastern to south-central OK, and<br />
north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau by late afternoon, before<br />
retreating westward. <br />
<br />
...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley...<br />
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this<br />
afternoon, in an arc extending from near the western KS low eastward<br />
to east-northeastward over northern KS, then east-southeastward<br />
across central/eastern MO and perhaps south-central IL. Supercells<br />
with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few<br />
tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. The greatest<br />
concentration of severe threat appears to be in northeastern KS and<br />
northwestern MO, in and near the "enhanced" area. <br />
<br />
Activity should develop preferentially along/near the frontal zone<br />
and shift northward to northeastward only a little faster than the<br />
boundary, thereby remaining in a narrow sector of favorable<br />
buoyancy, low-level shear and boundary-layer vorticity for some time<br />
before moving into cooler air and weakening. Nearby parts of the<br />
dryline also might form a storm or two. In the frontal corridor<br />
near I-70 in northern KS to northwestern MO, modified model<br />
soundings depict strong veering of flow with height (contributing to<br />
locally favorable hodographs and SRH), steep midlevel lapse rates,<br />
and adequate low-level moisture, with dewpoints commonly reaching<br />
the low/mid 50s F. MLCAPE should range from around 500-1000 J/kg<br />
over a very narrow, northward-moving sliver of west-central/<br />
north-central KS to a broader area of 1500-2500 J/kg developing to<br />
between MHK-COU, then weaker (but still sufficient for strong-severe<br />
storms) eastward into IL. Deep shear should be favorable in I-70<br />
corridor as well, though it will be maximized farther south ahead of<br />
the dryline where initiation is more uncertain. <br />
<br />
Many models (including most HREF members) have been depicting<br />
earliest convection initiation near or after 00Z, which seems<br />
somewhat late given:<br />
1. Their known biases (e.g., excess RAP/HRRR mixing/drying,<br />
too-cool NAM surface conditions, poor resolution of very narrow warm<br />
sectors, etc.), <br />
2. The overall pattern and history of similar scenarios, with<br />
sufficient frontal convergence/lift for convection typically earlier<br />
in the afternoon and closer to the low, and<br />
3. Expected diurnal destabilization (from both warm advection and<br />
surface heating) around the dryline, frontal zone and leading edge<br />
of the dry slot aloft.<br />
Notably, experimental MPAS members are sooner to initiate and<br />
farther south, more in line with conceptual models. <br />
<br />
During late afternoon and early evening, a window of tornado<br />
opportunity may be maximized with discrete cells in LLJ-enlarged<br />
hodographs, before the near-surface layer nocturnally stabilizes too<br />
much. Coverage is expected to increase for a few hours after 00Z,<br />
maximizing hail/wind threat density, though at least isolated severe<br />
potential may persist into the following morning over eastern parts<br />
of the outlook area.<br />
<br />
...Southern Plains...<br />
Isolated thunderstorm(s) may form late this afternoon along a<br />
roughly 300-nm long segment of the dryline over portions of<br />
south-central/southeastern KS, into east-central OK and adjoining<br />
parts of north TX. While development and maintenance of any cells<br />
forming in this regime is in question due to EML-related capping,<br />
any sustained storms can become supercells with all hazards possible<br />
-- including very large hail. Except for the strong CINH, the<br />
parameter space will be favorable, with stronger surface heating,<br />
greater low-level moisture (dewpoints mid 50s to low 60s F) and<br />
faster mid/upper winds (contributing to 50-60 kt effective-shear<br />
magnitudes) than farther north. However, uncertainty is too great<br />
to focus larger unconditional probabilities on any particular part<br />
of this corridor.<br />
<br />
..Edwards/Dean.. 03/13/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T415zl">http://dlvr.it/T415zl</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-19929632149355536962024-03-13T02:05:00.001-05:002024-03-13T02:05:38.787-05:00SPC Mar 13, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF<br />
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind<br />
damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the<br />
central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may<br />
occur across parts of the southern Plains.<br />
<br />
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...<br />
An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a<br />
70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In<br />
response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and<br />
the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong<br />
moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are<br />
expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and<br />
much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate<br />
instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup<br />
further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective<br />
initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by<br />
late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the<br />
early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will<br />
likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri<br />
Valley.<br />
<br />
In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep<br />
mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the<br />
central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the<br />
instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500<br />
J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This<br />
thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will<br />
be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater<br />
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant<br />
and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity<br />
is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat<br />
will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in<br />
the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will<br />
also be possible.<br />
<br />
...Southern Plains...<br />
Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern<br />
Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north<br />
Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western<br />
edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast<br />
soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by<br />
afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern<br />
Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP<br />
forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have<br />
0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and<br />
instability will easily support supercell development with any<br />
updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late<br />
afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated<br />
large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be<br />
possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional.<br />
<br />
..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T40MZh">http://dlvr.it/T40MZh</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-47550191508011219582024-03-11T08:03:00.001-05:002024-03-11T08:03:38.055-05:00SPC Mar 11, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z<br />
<br />
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis/Discussion...<br />
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some<br />
amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and<br />
accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over<br />
the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left<br />
by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now<br />
over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective<br />
consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens.<br />
<br />
Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base<br />
of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska<br />
-- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time<br />
frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on<br />
day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding<br />
each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool,<br />
moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result<br />
that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of<br />
extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated<br />
basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from<br />
northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight.<br />
<br />
..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3vzW2">http://dlvr.it/T3vzW2</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-72124016821764584802024-03-11T02:06:00.001-05:002024-03-11T02:06:14.993-05:00SPC Mar 11, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z<br />
<br />
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.<br />
<br />
...Discussion...<br />
Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the<br />
CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving<br />
east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might<br />
support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT<br />
vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave<br />
impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the<br />
lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will<br />
aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy<br />
should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a<br />
thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning.<br />
<br />
..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3vGV7">http://dlvr.it/T3vGV7</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-55662551154856772072024-03-08T02:06:00.001-06:002024-03-08T02:06:15.084-06:00SPC Mar 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT<br />
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF<br />
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN<br />
ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of<br />
the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today<br />
through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for<br />
tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across<br />
parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this<br />
afternoon into tonight.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the<br />
mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this<br />
period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high<br />
center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader<br />
scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast<br />
through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern<br />
U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant<br />
troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper<br />
Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in<br />
phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly<br />
emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period.<br />
<br />
Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output<br />
concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated<br />
surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of<br />
the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level<br />
cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge<br />
through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest<br />
Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit<br />
slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the<br />
lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing<br />
cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a<br />
frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by<br />
12Z Saturday.<br />
<br />
A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across<br />
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain<br />
vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and<br />
may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and<br />
east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will<br />
hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of<br />
outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread<br />
east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the<br />
development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these<br />
remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the<br />
severe weather potential for this period.<br />
<br />
...Gulf States...<br />
Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric<br />
warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude<br />
subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the<br />
lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period,<br />
gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into<br />
southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening<br />
appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective<br />
outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the<br />
better boundary-layer moistening.<br />
<br />
By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface<br />
heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama<br />
and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a<br />
developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening,<br />
weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone<br />
and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in<br />
the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly<br />
difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong<br />
west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become<br />
conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. <br />
Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also<br />
promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with<br />
conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the<br />
evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles.<br />
<br />
It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening,<br />
and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing<br />
surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of<br />
southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend<br />
on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear.<br />
<br />
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3n8Kf">http://dlvr.it/T3n8Kf</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-86137223371840278522024-03-07T02:05:00.001-06:002024-03-07T02:05:38.503-06:00SPC Mar 7, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1143 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON<br />
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND<br />
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF<br />
WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
A few thunderstorms may pose primarily a risk for severe hail and<br />
locally strong wind gusts across parts of the southern Great Plains<br />
this afternoon into tonight.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
Flow across the mid-latitude Pacific is becoming more amplified and,<br />
later today through tonight, models indicate this will include<br />
building mid/upper ridging spreading inland across the Pacific<br />
coast. Preceding this ridge, while one short wave trough digs<br />
near/west of the Sierra Nevada, toward the Southwestern<br />
international border, a downstream perturbation is forecast to<br />
accelerate east-northeastward out of the Southwest, into the<br />
southern Great Plains by early Friday.<br />
<br />
In the wake of a vigorous short wave trough slowly accelerating from<br />
southern Manitoba toward the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, a<br />
significant cold intrusion is already underway to the lee of the<br />
northern Rockies. As this air continues to nose southward through<br />
the high plains, modestly deep surface troughing will precede it<br />
across the southern Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, but<br />
guidance suggests little in the way of embedded surface cyclogenesis<br />
through this period. One evolving wave along a developing frontal<br />
zone may shift from the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma<br />
vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through<br />
tonight.<br />
<br />
A narrow plume of better low-level moisture return may be ongoing<br />
across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene<br />
vicinity by 12Z this morning, before more substantive low-level<br />
moisture return commences across the western Gulf/northwestern Gulf<br />
coast and coastal plain toward the southeastern Great Plains/lower<br />
Mississippi Valley. Much of the this, however, may take place<br />
beneath relative warm layers in the lower/mid-tropospheric and<br />
layers further aloft, beneath low-amplitude subtropical ridging.<br />
<br />
...Southern Great Plains...<br />
Considerable thunderstorm development may be ongoing by 12Z this<br />
morning, in response to ascent supported by lower/mid-tropospheric<br />
warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow, from parts of west<br />
central/northwest Texas into Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Steeper<br />
mid/upper level lapse rates supportive of somewhat better potential<br />
for severe hail in widely scattered stronger storms probably will be<br />
initially focused from the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity toward<br />
the Ozark Plateau. However, as convection across this region<br />
becomes more widespread and spreads northeastward, the initial risk<br />
for severe hail is expected to wane.<br />
<br />
There is considerable model output indicating that a more prominent<br />
cluster of convection may evolve through late morning into afternoon<br />
across parts of west central through north central Texas, perhaps<br />
aided by weak perturbation associated with the subtropical jet. <br />
This may include a gradually intensifying line, supported by better<br />
near-surface moist inflow along the leading (southern and eastern)<br />
edge of associated convective outflow, which may eventually pose at<br />
least some risk for severe hail and wind. However, this potential<br />
may be limited by generally weak lapse rates, particularly as it<br />
continues eastward through the day.<br />
<br />
While convective development to the south may impede better<br />
low-level moisture return, a narrow corridor of stronger pre-frontal<br />
daytime heating across the Texas Panhandle toward the Wichita, KS<br />
vicinity will provide at least one focus for stronger late afternoon<br />
into evening thunderstorm development. Beneath the leading edge of<br />
stronger mid/upper cooling associated with the troughing emerging<br />
from the Southwest, steepening lapse rates will contribute to an<br />
environment conducive to potential for at least severe hail, in the<br />
presence of sufficient shear for supercells.<br />
<br />
In the wake of early day convection, an appreciable increase in<br />
potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development will await<br />
mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with the<br />
primary short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. This<br />
may not reach the Edwards Plateau vicinity until mid/late evening,<br />
before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central into<br />
northern Texas overnight. But it appears that boundary-layer based<br />
instability will probably become supportive of supercells, beneath<br />
60-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs may<br />
not become particularly large, but some risk for a tornado and<br />
locally damaging wind gusts may accompany stronger cells, in<br />
addition to severe hail.<br />
<br />
..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/07/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3kVhr">http://dlvr.it/T3kVhr</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-78660224356480178472024-03-06T02:05:00.001-06:002024-03-06T02:05:36.924-06:00SPC Mar 6, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF<br />
NORTH TX...FL...SC...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of<br />
the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty<br />
winds should be the main threats with this activity.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast<br />
toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low<br />
is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west,<br />
a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern<br />
CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee<br />
of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level<br />
moisture expected across the southern Plains. <br />
<br />
The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the<br />
Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped<br />
convection with some lightning potential will also be possible<br />
across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible.<br />
<br />
...Florida Peninsula...<br />
In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will<br />
be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the<br />
central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold<br />
front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will<br />
be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly<br />
organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or<br />
two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with<br />
the strongest storms. <br />
<br />
...South Carolina and vicinity...<br />
After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass<br />
recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas.<br />
MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel<br />
vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential<br />
for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be<br />
marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and<br />
or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this<br />
time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of<br />
central/eastern SC. <br />
<br />
...North Texas...<br />
While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the<br />
southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered<br />
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest<br />
into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching<br />
upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient<br />
deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail<br />
and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and<br />
subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage.<br />
<br />
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3gtNP">http://dlvr.it/T3gtNP</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-78821251195243321462024-03-05T02:06:00.001-06:002024-03-05T02:06:14.338-06:00SPC Mar 5, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF<br />
EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible through the<br />
day across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi<br />
Valley. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.<br />
<br />
...East TX/OK into the lower MS Valley...<br />
Convection will likely be ongoing during the morning somewhere from<br />
east TX into the ArkLaTex region, though uncertainty remains<br />
regarding the evolution of this convection during the overnight<br />
hours prior to the start of the forecast period. In general, one or<br />
more clusters may develop and move southeastward through the<br />
morning. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear could support some<br />
storm organization, though instability may remain limited near the<br />
lower MS Valley due to the influence of extensive convection on<br />
Monday, and increasing overnight convection over the Gulf of Mexico.<br />
Some threat for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany<br />
the morning storms if organized convection can be sustained. <br />
<br />
Most guidance suggests severe potential will wane across the region<br />
in the wake of the morning convection. However, depending on the<br />
strength and extent of convective outflow, moderate destabilization<br />
may be possible during the afternoon from east TX/OK into portions<br />
of AR/LA. While large-scale ascent will be weak in the wake of a<br />
shortwave trough associated with the morning convection, isolated<br />
redevelopment cannot be ruled out along any remnant outflow<br />
boundary. Should this occur, MLCAPE potentially in excess of 1500<br />
J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could be sufficient to support an<br />
isolated hail and damaging wind threat with any sustained<br />
afternoon/evening storms.<br />
<br />
...Florida...<br />
Most guidance suggests that an MCS will develop over the Gulf of<br />
Mexico and move eastward through the day. Guidance also suggests<br />
that the MCS (or its remnant) will not reach the FL Peninsula until<br />
later in the evening, though there is some potential it will<br />
progress eastward faster than expected. In advance of the MCS,<br />
isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible over<br />
the Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually increases. With<br />
instability expected to remain rather weak, severe potential appears<br />
relatively limited with both the MCS and any earlier convection.<br />
However, with modestly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear<br />
potentially overspreading parts of the Peninsula, the severe<br />
potential will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. <br />
<br />
...OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes...<br />
Scattered convection will be possible through the day from parts of<br />
the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, in association with a cold<br />
front. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear is expected to<br />
be rather weak, since the region is located between a departing<br />
northern-stream shortwave trough, and the southern-stream system<br />
affecting the Gulf Coast states. Modest preconvective heating and<br />
cool temperatures aloft could support gusty winds and small hail<br />
with the strongest storms, though the organized severe-thunderstorm<br />
threat appears limited.<br />
<br />
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/05/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3dB00">http://dlvr.it/T3dB00</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-40513592099213047642024-03-04T02:07:00.001-06:002024-03-04T02:07:14.986-06:00SPC Mar 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1155 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE<br />
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this<br />
afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower<br />
Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest.<br />
Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds<br />
and a tornado or two may also occur.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the<br />
central/western CONUS through the day. Within the broader trough,<br />
multiple belts of stronger flow will impinge upon portions of the<br />
southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and Midwest. A strong<br />
northern-stream shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward<br />
away from the upper Great Lakes during the morning, with multiple<br />
lower-amplitude vorticity maxima following in its wake. Meanwhile, a<br />
southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from<br />
northern Mexico into Texas by afternoon, and towards the lower MS<br />
Valley by late evening. A surface cyclone is forecast to move along<br />
a frontal boundary from the south-central Plains northeastward<br />
toward the mid MS Valley by evening. <br />
<br />
...Parts of IL/MO into eastern IA and southern WI...<br />
A surface boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front<br />
into parts of eastern IA, northern IL, and perhaps southern WI<br />
during the day, before stalling and then moving southeastward as a<br />
cold front during the evening. Across the warm sector, modest<br />
low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the mid/upper 50s F)<br />
beneath relatively cold temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE<br />
increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon. Some<br />
weakening of mid/upper-level flow is expected through the day in the<br />
wake of the departing shortwave, but will remain sufficient to<br />
support effective shear of 35-45 kt, which is conditionally<br />
favorable for organized convection. <br />
<br />
While a strong elevated storm or two will be possible across WI<br />
during the morning, the primary concern is for storm development in<br />
the vicinity of the surface front by late afternoon or early<br />
evening. Guidance varies regarding the timing of initiation and<br />
placement of the surface features, but in general, scattered<br />
thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MO/eastern IA<br />
into northern IL and southern WI. An initial supercell or two will<br />
be possible, though there may be a tendency toward more of a complex<br />
or linear mode with time as the front begins to push southeastward.<br />
Hail appears to be the most likely hazard at this time, though there<br />
will also be some potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts. Some<br />
tornado potential could also evolve if a surface-based supercell or<br />
two can be sustained. Uncertainties regarding placement/timing of<br />
the surface front and longevity of any supercell potential preclude<br />
higher probabilities across the region at this time. <br />
<br />
...Parts of TX/eastern OK into the Ozarks and lower MS Valley...<br />
Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints increasing<br />
through the 60s F) will stream northward through the day across<br />
parts of TX, eastern OK, AR, and LA. Thunderstorm development will<br />
be possible by late morning into the afternoon along the northern<br />
periphery of the deeper returning moisture across parts of LA and<br />
perhaps into adjacent portions of southwest MS and southeast TX.<br />
Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the deepening moisture will support<br />
preconvective MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer<br />
shear for organized convection. A few strong multicells and perhaps<br />
a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of<br />
hail and locally damaging gusts. <br />
<br />
Farther west into TX, the diurnal severe threat is more conditional,<br />
with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather weak and<br />
relatively limited convergence along the dryline. However, a very<br />
isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out during the late<br />
afternoon and evening, which would pose a large-hail threat.<br />
<br />
Overnight, most guidance suggests renewed storm development near the<br />
ArkLaTex region, likely in response to the southern-stream shortwave<br />
trough approaching the region. Storms within this late-night regime<br />
would likely be slightly elevated, but moderate buoyancy and<br />
favorable deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail and/or<br />
damaging-gust threat into early Tuesday morning.<br />
<br />
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/04/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3ZZ2B">http://dlvr.it/T3ZZ2B</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-49652770554670542622024-03-02T08:03:00.001-06:002024-03-02T08:03:22.697-06:00SPC Mar 2, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z<br />
<br />
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning.<br />
<br />
...Discussion...<br />
Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of<br />
the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs<br />
south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject<br />
eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward,<br />
ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection<br />
and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes<br />
across an increasingly broad area of the western states.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the<br />
Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the<br />
Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf<br />
Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible.<br />
<br />
In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection<br />
expected to remain weak and disorganized.<br />
<br />
..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3WPrh">http://dlvr.it/T3WPrh</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-90274439161471612462024-03-02T02:06:00.001-06:002024-03-02T02:06:23.766-06:00SPC Mar 2, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z<br />
<br />
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning.<br />
<br />
...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity...<br />
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move<br />
through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the<br />
afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal<br />
thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL<br />
Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak<br />
instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit<br />
the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and<br />
gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater<br />
pre-convective warming can occur through the day. <br />
<br />
...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies...<br />
A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across<br />
the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over<br />
eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High<br />
Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will<br />
move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the<br />
afternoon. <br />
<br />
Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb),<br />
and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands<br />
of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This<br />
frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning<br />
flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by<br />
strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions.<br />
<br />
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3Vtrr">http://dlvr.it/T3Vtrr</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-65525770943106724242024-02-27T02:05:00.001-06:002024-02-27T02:05:37.648-06:00SPC Feb 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1156 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF<br />
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES....<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail<br />
(some 2 inches diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will<br />
be possible from late this afternoon into the evening and overnight,<br />
from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and<br />
southern Great Lakes.<br />
<br />
...Synopsis...<br />
Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow over much of the central and<br />
western CONUS will gradually consolidate and amplify through the<br />
forecast period, as a northern-stream shortwave trough merges with<br />
strong southwesterly flow from the southern stream. Multiple weak<br />
perturbations embedded within the increasingly strong<br />
southern-stream flow ahead of the main vort max will aid in<br />
deepening a broad surface cyclone along a cold front over the<br />
northern Plains. As the surface low and trailing front advance, warm<br />
advection will draw limited, but sufficient, moisture northward into<br />
the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms<br />
are possible ahead of the low and along the trailing front through<br />
early Wednesday.<br />
<br />
...Mid MS and Lower OH Valley...<br />
Early in the forecast period, isolated to widely scattered<br />
thunderstorms may be ongoing within a strong low-level warm<br />
advection regime over the lower OH Valley. Ahead of the main surge<br />
of deeper surface moisture, these storms are expected to remain<br />
primarily elevated through the mid morning. Elevated buoyancy, steep<br />
lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear for supercells may support<br />
a conditional risk for large hail through mid morning.<br />
<br />
Continued warm advection should gradually transport upper 50s to low<br />
60s F surface dewpoints northward into parts of southern and central<br />
IL, IN and western OH by mid afternoon. A diffuse moisture gradient<br />
along a surface pressure trough/weak dryline should become<br />
established across western/central IL into far eastern MO by late<br />
afternoon. Strong surface heating and confluence along this feature<br />
may support isolated convective development by 21-00z across<br />
central/northern IL. At the same time, warm advection along an<br />
expected differential-heating zone near the nose of the returning<br />
surface moisture may allow for scattered thunderstorm development<br />
across portions of northern IN, southern lower MI and northwestern<br />
OH. Model soundings show moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) and strong<br />
effective shear of 40-50 kt favorable for supercells. A prominent<br />
EML for February, with lapse rates of 8 C/km, will favor strong<br />
updrafts with efficient hail growth and a risk for significant hail.<br />
<br />
Later in the evening, the approach of the deepening mid-level trough<br />
and surface pressure falls ahead of the surface low across northern<br />
IL will yield increasing mass response across the warm sector. Model<br />
soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs potentially supporting<br />
a few tornadoes and damaging gusts.<br />
<br />
As the cold front and low move eastward, additional storm<br />
development is possible along the surface pressure trough and the<br />
surging cold front across portions of far eastern MO and southern<br />
IL. Uncertainty on storm mode and coverage remains fairly high, with<br />
some CAM solutions suggesting more isolated development ahead of the<br />
line, while other show mostly linear growth along the front.<br />
Regardless, these storms should continue eastward overnight across<br />
southern IN, northern KY and into southwestern OH with the potential<br />
for hail and damaging gusts. Should more discrete development occur<br />
and be maintained ahead of the building squall line, increasingly<br />
strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 250-400 m2/s2) could support a<br />
risk for tornadoes. The severe threat should gradually diminish into<br />
Wednesday morning as the frontal squall line pushes eastward into<br />
parts of eastern OH and the central Appalachians with decreasing<br />
buoyancy.<br />
<br />
..Lyons/Darrow.. 02/27/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3JP6Y">http://dlvr.it/T3JP6Y</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-9346174838958393502024-02-26T02:06:00.001-06:002024-02-26T02:06:10.685-06:00SPC Feb 26, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z<br />
<br />
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE<br />
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central<br />
Great Lakes region.<br />
<br />
...Central Great Lakes Region...<br />
<br />
Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great<br />
Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the<br />
height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with<br />
the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by<br />
27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast<br />
within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the<br />
overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage<br />
significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight.<br />
<br />
Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of<br />
the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed<br />
across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to<br />
surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly<br />
low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley,<br />
and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally,<br />
very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture<br />
advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at<br />
850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500<br />
J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C.<br />
<br />
Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching<br />
disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some<br />
organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few<br />
weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1"<br />
appears possible with the strongest updrafts.<br />
<br />
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3Fpc5">http://dlvr.it/T3Fpc5</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-61629650555338844402024-02-25T08:03:00.001-06:002024-02-25T08:03:35.006-06:00SPC Feb 25, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z<br />
<br />
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of<br />
coastal/northwest Washington.<br />
<br />
...Discussion...<br />
The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward<br />
an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing<br />
continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western<br />
Atlantic. <br />
<br />
At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the<br />
country, along with generally dry/stable conditions.<br />
<br />
During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging<br />
southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific<br />
Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak<br />
destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington<br />
vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery<br />
convection anticipated across this area.<br />
<br />
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.<br />
<br />
..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3DRDm">http://dlvr.it/T3DRDm</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7565356746954948523.post-13691914802081931292024-02-25T02:05:00.001-06:002024-02-25T02:05:36.395-06:00SPC Feb 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook<div class='separator' style='clear: both; text-align: center;'><a href='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' imageanchor='1' style='margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;'><img alt='' border='0' src='https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif' width='400' /></a></div>LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
Day 1 Convective Outlook <br />
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK<br />
1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024<br />
<br />
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z<br />
<br />
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...<br />
<br />
...SUMMARY...<br />
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of<br />
coastal/northwest Washington.<br />
<br />
...Pacific Northwest...<br />
<br />
Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the<br />
Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper<br />
trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will<br />
decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will<br />
encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels<br />
should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability<br />
will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may<br />
contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast<br />
soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could<br />
exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder<br />
probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night<br />
possibility.<br />
<br />
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024<br />
<br />
<br />
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC<br />
<br />
<br /><a href="http://dlvr.it/T3CxFw">http://dlvr.it/T3CxFw</a>CardinalNewshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14879245875889479381noreply@blogger.com