Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough near the California coast this morning
will shift east toward the southern Rockies by Saturday morning.
Cooling aloft will support weak instability across portions of
southern AZ/NM to Far West TX. Boundary layer moisture is expected
to remain modest, with the dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s F.
This will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across southern AZ/NM, spreading eastward toward southwest TX by
late afternoon/early evening. Southerly deep-layer flow is forecast,
with effective shear magnitudes generally around 20-25 kt. Modest
shear and instability will likely limit severe potential, though
gusty winds and small hail could occur with the strongest storms.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of coastal OR
into northern/central CA as a second upper shortwave trough moves
inland across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. A lightning
flash or two is possible during the nighttime hours from central CA
into the Great Basin, but overall coverage is expected to remain
less than 10 percent.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/13/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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