Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.
...Southeast AZ...
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico. This
feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale
ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening.
Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover
will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited.
These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg. Winds aloft
are also relatively weak. While organized severe storms appear
unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in
the more intense cells.
...Northern CA...
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with
intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front. No
lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and
thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak. Nevertheless, strong wind
gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an
orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through
mid afternoon.
..Hart/Halbert-E.. 11/13/2026
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