Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Generally elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of south TX to the north of a weak inverted surface trough.
This convection is being aided by large-scale ascent and modest
low-level warm advection occurring ahead of a weak upper trough over
west TX/northern Mexico. Weak MUCAPE and poor lapse rates aloft are
expected to limit the severe threat this morning (reference the 12Z
observed CRP/BRO soundings). Also, the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms over land appears lower than yesterday, and any
stronger thunderstorms should tend to focus offshore through the
morning into early afternoon.
Another fast-moving upper trough is forecast to overspread the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon through tonight. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 40s to low 50s and filtered daytime heating should
allow MUCAPE up to 100-300 J/kg to develop along/ahead of a
low-topped band of convection expected to move quickly eastward
across coastal WA/OR this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes
may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be
fairly cold. While strong low/mid-level winds veering with height
appear conditionally favorable for organized updrafts, the meager
instability should tend to limit the risk for severe gusts.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/09/2026
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