Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over
the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime
downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the
TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings
sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over
1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while
diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave
trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is
characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely
offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward.
These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather
threat very low.
Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress
through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the
primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning
flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will
be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the
limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk
for severe gusts.
..Mosier/Moore.. 11/09/2026
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