Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...South Texas...
An upper low over southwest Chihuahua, Mexico, this evening will
progress toward the TX Big Bend overnight. Modest midlevel height
falls preceding that feature will combine with persistent
low/midlevel warm advection and a moist environment with MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg (per the 00Z BRO and CRP soundings) to yield an
increase in thunderstorm coverage overnight. While no severe weather
is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is
possible.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing showers over portions of southwest Ontario are indicative of
increased forcing for ascent associated with a vorticity maximum
moving through that region. So far, convection has remained too
shallow to support charge separation and lightning production.
However, as the forcing begins to overspread the lower Great Lakes,
sensible heat and moisture fluxes may be sufficient to yield deeper
convective updrafts capable of sporadic lightning over far western
NY and in the Tug Hill region.
..Mead.. 11/09/2026
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