Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of
damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states
into southwest New England.
...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
over OH tracking eastward. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of
the trough, with pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg expected later
today. Large scale forcing associated with the trough is rather
weak, and overall coverage of storms may be rather isolated.
However, stronger winds aloft than yesterday suggest a conditional
risk of wind damage with any sustained storm later today. Have
extended the SLGT risk area a little farther north into NY/MA where
morning model guidance suggests higher coverage/confidence in
storms. Have also extended the MRGL farther west into OH beneath
the upper trough where widely scattered storms may also produce
gusty/damaging winds.
...Western NC...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form off the mountains
of western NC and vicinity, and track slowly southeastward. Strong
daytime heating, humid conditions, and sufficient CAPE may promote a
risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores.
...North TX...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along an E-W axis across
north TX this afternoon in a hot/humid air mass. The strongest of
these slow-moving cells may produce damaging winds.
...NE/KS...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing over central NE. This
activity may persist into the afternoon, tracking southeastward
toward northeast KS/northwest MO. Given the corridor of high CAPE
in this zone, a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds
and hail are possible.
...ND/SD/MN/IA...
A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likely lead to
scattered thunderstorms tonight after midnight over central ND.
These storms are expected to develop southeastward into parts of
SD/MN/IA before 12z. Relatively strong vertical shear will support
supercells capable of hail and damaging winds.
...AZ...
Full sunshine and sufficient CAPE will once again promote
thunderstorm develop off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings show increasing mid-level moisture
through the evening as an upper trough passes to the south, perhaps
aiding convective maintenance westward into the lower elevations.
If so, given the favorable steering flow, strong/severe outflow
winds could spread into the PHX area around 00z. This scenario will
be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT in later outlooks.
..Hart/Weinman.. 08/08/2026
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