Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of
damaging gusts will be possible today across the Mid-Atlantic states
into southern New England.
...Mid-Atlantic states into southern New England...
Satellite imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance moving
east across the Lower Great Lakes, with early morning
showers/thunderstorms from WV/PA into western NY likely associated
with this feature. Strong heating from Chesapeake Bay northward
into southern portions of the Northeast will yield around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE by early afternoon. Of particular note is seemingly adequate
strength of flow between 700-250 mb for organized line segments.
Given the relatively high PW environment (1.75-2.0 inches),
expecting a few clusters to evolve this afternoon with an attendant
risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph). Have
expanded/increased severe-wind probabilities into southern New
England and southward into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Marginally
severe hail may also occur with the stronger cells before excessive
outflow leads to more linear structures as this activity pushes east
towards the coast by the early evening.
...Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO...
Radar/satellite mosaic shows a cluster of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms over the NE Sandhills this morning. This activity may
continue southeast this morning but weaken as it moves across
central NE. Above average uncertainty/low confidence for this
forecast is due in part to weak to negligible forcing features and
large model spread on potential evolution of isolated to widely
scattered storms later today into tonight. Nonetheless, a strongly
unstable airmass is forecast to develop by early afternoon across
much of the region with 60s to lower 70s boundary layer dewpoints
beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates.
Several areas of convection may develop during the late
afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the
southward-sagging surface front. Weak convergence along early day
outflow may rejuvenate convection or lead to additional isolated
storms over southern NE into northern KS. This may also coincide
with an increasing low-level jet across the central Plains during
the evening into the overnight, but capping will likely limit storm
coverage except perhaps near a southward-sagging surface front near
the ND/SD border and with warm advection over southern MN into IA.
Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the more intense
thunderstorms.
Additional high-based convection is possible across eastern CO and
western KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer will probably
support isolated severe gusts.
...AZ...
Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an
upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot
and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as
convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower
deserts.
..Smith/Kerr.. 08/08/2026
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