Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN/IA...OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AZ...AND FROM CENTRAL OH INTO WESTERN NY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated instances of large to very large hail will be possible
across the northern Plains through tonight.
...Dakotas into MN/IA and the MO Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening across
south-central ND. Isolated large to very large hail may accompany
these storms if they can intensify and be maintained. It is
uncertain if this convection will continue to develop east/southeast
into SD given strong capping, or if additional convection will
develop later tonight as a low-level jet increases. Reference MCD
1872 for more short term information. Despite uncertainty in
convective evolution through the evening into tonight, severe
potential, mainly in the form of large hail near 2 inch diameter,
and strong wind gusts, remains possible.
...Ohio Valley into western NY...
Thunderstorm clusters have develop ahead of a surface front from OH
into western PA/NY. This activity will continue to spread eastward
within moderate instability through early tonight. Sporadic strong
wind gusts will be possible for a few more hours before weakening
with loss of daytime heating and increasing nocturnal boundary layer
stabilization.
...AZ...
Isolated thunderstorms developing over higher terrain will continue
to spread westward across the lower deserts tonight. Strong wind
gusts will be possible with this activity.
...CO/KS vicinity...
Thick smoke across the region has muted instability across CO into
northeast KS and vicinity. Any stronger convection has moved south
into southwest KS where locally gusty winds are possible for another
couple of hours. However, severe potential appears limited with
anemic high-based showers moving across eastern CO into northwest KS
and southwest NE. As such, severe probabilities have been removed.
...TX...
Outflow from a thunderstorm cluster across northeast TX will
continue to progress south/southwest this evening. Instability
lessens with westward extent and, with loss of daytime heating,
low-level inhibition will increase. Severe potential has largely
diminished and probabilities have been removed.
...NC vicinity...
Thunderstorms have gradually weakened over the past 30-60 minutes as
low-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. As
such, severe potential has diminished and severe probabilities have
been removed.
..Leitman.. 08/09/2026
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