Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Additional strong to severe storms
are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Arizona.
...Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO...
A modest but weakening low-level jet across portions of NE/SD may
support ongoing elevated convection this morning, mainly across NE.
This activity will weaken and spread southeast through the morning
hours, but could pose a marginal risk for hail.
The forecast for the afternoon into nighttime hours becomes complex
and uncertain. Broad northwesterly flow aloft will modestly
strengthen by late afternoon/early evening as several shortwave
impulses migrate through the base of an upper low/trough centered
over central Canada. Height falls are expected to be weak, and warm
mid-level temperatures will pose capping issues. Nevertheless,
surface troughing across the northern/central High Plains will
result in south/southeasterly low-level flow, transporting 60s F
dewpoints northward across the central Plains and MO Valley ahead of
a southward sagging surface front oriented across ND and northern MN
late in the period. Increasing boundary layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong
destabilization.
Several areas of convection may develop during the late
afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the
southward-sagging surface front. Given weak large-scale ascent and
warm midlevels, it remains uncertain where storm development is most
likely and how storm coverage will evolve. With an increasing
low-level jet across the central Plains during the nighttime hours,
some convection could develop atop a capping inversion, or along the
surface front near the ND/SD border. Isolated large hail is possible
with this activity. If surface-based convection can develop within
the strongly unstable airmass, damaging wind gusts also will be
possible.
Additional high-based convection is possible across CO and western
KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer could support strong
outflow winds with this activity as well.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A modest midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the region
through afternoon/early evening. Strong heating of a seasonally
moist airmass will support moderate instability. Vertical shear is
expected to be sufficient for organized cells and clusters with an
attendant risk for damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells could
also produce small hail.
...AZ...
Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an
upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot
and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as
convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower
deserts.
..Leitman/Marsh.. 08/08/2026
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