Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks this evening and overnight. More
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this evening.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
Clusters of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
emerge across southern Plains and portions of the Ozarks this
evening and into the overnight hours. Recent radar mosaics and
surface observations show the gradual decay of a cluster across
southwest MO as the attendant cold pool continues to expand and
undercut convection. Some lingering hail, and perhaps damaging wind,
threat will persist with this activity through roughly 03-05 UTC
given the proximity to ample buoyancy and modest deep-layer wind
shear on the south/southwest flank of the cold pool.
Further west, thunderstorm development is ongoing across southwest
KS and southeast CO along zones of low-level confluence. Additional
thunderstorm development is anticipated through late evening as
convection continues to cluster and grow upscale in tandem with an
increase in the nocturnal jet. The past several runs of the HRRR and
RRFS both depict the emergence of a loosely organized MCS across
this region with the potential for significant wind gusts. Given the
trends in both satellite/radar and model guidance, confidence is
sufficiently high to introduce focused 15% wind probabilities.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the greater
Emporia, KS area later this evening on the eastern periphery of the
nocturnal jet and along the western edge of the MO cold pool. Steep
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support organized
convection that will likely pose a threat for large hail, and
perhaps sporadic downburst winds. A secondary corridor of higher
severe potential may emerge across eastern KS overnight, but the
expectation for clustered storm modes should act to modulate storm
longevity/intensity and precludes higher probabilities.
...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota...
Convection developing along a pre-frontal trough in southeast ND and
northern MN has exhibited periods of strong VII and cold cloud-top
temperatures indicative of severe convection. This activity has
mainly been focused within a corridor of low to mid 60s dewpoints
where effective bulk shear is around 35-40 knots and MLCAPE is
likely between 1500-2500 J/kg, based on a combination of RAP
mesoanalyses and by modifying the 00 UTC ABR RAOB. Latest guidance
has hinted that additional convection is possible overnight as a
cloud front pushes east and impinges on this narrow, but unstable,
warm sector.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
Isolated clusters of strong thunderstorms remain across the region
as of 01 UTC. However, most convection has exhibited signs of
gradual weakening over the past two hours. Although some localized
damaging wind threat may linger for the next hour or so, continued
nocturnal stabilization should further limit thunderstorm coverage
and intensity and warrants a removal of risk probabilities.
...Western Nebraska/South Dakota...
A few attempts at sustained convection have been noted over the past
few hours across western SD along a weak surface trough. With the
passage of the upper trough axis and the onset of nocturnal cooling
expected over the next few hours, the potential for thunderstorm
development appears very limited.
..Moore.. 08/07/2026
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