Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Generally isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing hail and damaging winds appear possible across parts of
the southern/central Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated strong to
locally severe gusts capable of wind damage may also occur from
parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Ongoing convection in MO and along the KS/OK border late this
morning has been aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in
the vicinity of a slow-moving surface boundary. Current expectations
are for gradual destabilization to occur through the afternoon
along/south of this boundary from the southern High Plains eastward
to parts of the Ozarks. This region will remain on the southern
periphery of large-scale troughing centered over Canada and the
northern Plains, with nebulous/weak forcing for ascent evident along
the surface front. This leads to low confidence in renewed
thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. Based on this
and trends in 12Z guidance, have removed the Slight Risk for
severe/damaging winds. Still, an isolated hail/wind threat remains
apparent along the length of this boundary, as moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support updraft
organization with any cells that can form/be sustained. A greater
signal for scattered thunderstorm development exists this
evening/overnight across parts of KS/MO as a low-level jet gradually
strengthens in this time frame. Have expanded severe hail/wind
probabilities northward a bit to account for this potential.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Around 20-35 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will exist over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today. At the surface,
a weak trough will be located from the coastal VA
north-northeastward into eastern NY. As surface temperatures
continue to warm into the 80s with filtered daytime heating,
thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians and
subsequently move east-northeastward into the lower elevations and
toward the surface trough. While mid-level lapse rates will remain
poor, a rather moist low-level airmass will contribute to moderate
instability this afternoon (MLCAPE generally 1000-2500 J/kg).
Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates are forecast
with southward extent into the western Carolinas where mid-level
flow will be comparatively weaker. Some of the stronger water-loaded
downdrafts will be capable of producing occasional damaging winds.
...Colorado/Nebraska/South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the
north-central CONUS through the period. At the surface, an axis of
greater low-level moisture will exist from northeast CO/western NE
into southern SD along/east of a weak surface trough, where
dewpoints will generally be in the 60s. Near this axis, latest
NAM/RAP forecasts show a narrow corridor of moderate instability
this afternoon, with MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg. Although
large-scale ascent will remain weak/nebulous across this region, any
cell that can initiate near the instability axis would be capable of
producing isolated severe gusts/large hail. Have therefore
maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with some expansion.
But, given low confidence in convective initiation, refrained from
including greater severe wind/hail probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 08/06/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TTv4zW
