Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. More isolated severe thunderstorms are
expected from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region
as well as across parts of the southern High Plains and central
Plains.
...Synopsis...
00 UTC upper-air analyses and latest GOES water-vapor imagery depict
several perturbations within a low-amplitude upper trough in place
over the central CONUS. The first of these perturbations is analyzed
over the mid-MS Valley and is expected to migrate east towards the
Mid-Atlantic region by mid-afternoon. A more pronounced shortwave
trough is evident over central Canada into the northern Plains. This
feature, along with an attendant surface low and trailing cold
front, will move eastward through the day, reaching the Great Lakes
region by tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will
primarily be associated with these synoptic features, though more
localized corridors of strong/severe thunderstorms may emerge across
the southern High Plains and parts of the Ozarks associated with
outflow boundaries from ongoing convection.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The weak upper perturbation currently over the MS Valley is forecast
to reach the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region by
mid-afternoon. Strong heating of an seasonally moist air mass
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will compensate for otherwise
meager mid-level lapse rates and support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000
J/kg with minimal capping by early afternoon. A combination of weak
synoptic lift aided by localized orographic ascent should promote
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the 18-20 UTC
period. Most CAM guidance depicts a reasonably strong signal for
thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth as storms spread
northeast towards the I-95 corridor around peak heating. Although
winds through the lowest 2-3 km will remain fairly modest, steep
low-level lapse rates and around 25 knots of effective bulk shear
should promote loosely organized clusters/lines with embedded swaths
of damaging winds.
...Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region...
Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected early this
morning, possibly as early as 12-14 UTC across portions of eastern
MN. This early activity will likely be elevated in nature, but 30-35
knot mid-level flow should support adequate hodograph elongation for
a few organized cells capable of severe hail. With time, diurnal
heating/destabilization downstream and persistent forcing along the
front should promote steady intensification and upscale growth of
convection with a transition to primarily a wind risk across WI and
the Upper Peninsula of MI. Further south, more isolated thunderstorm
coverage across southern MN, IA, and eastern NE may support a
supercell or two with an attendant threat for large hail as well as
severe wind.
...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM
into the TX Panhandle this afternoon - driven by either orographic
ascent along the Sange de Cristo mountains and/or the Raton Mesa or
lift along a residual outflow boundary associated with an ongoing,
but fairly confined, MCS across the northern TX Panhandle (as of 06
UTC). Regardless of the forcing mechanism, convection developing
across this region will mature in an environment featuring fairly
weak wind shear, but a deeply-mixed boundary layer conducive for
severe downbursts. Despite considerable variance in storm placement
and coverage in latest CAM ensembles, the consistent signal for
severe downbursts warrants low-end severe wind probabilities.
Further east into eastern OK and the Ozarks, a focused corridor of
thunderstorms will likely emerge on the outflow boundary of a
convective cluster developing across eastern KS (as of 06 UTC). Some
CAM solutions hint that sporadic large hail and/or damaging
downbursts will be possible with this activity, but considerable
uncertainty on where and how intense this activity will be limits
confidence on introducing additional risk areas.
...Nebraska/South Dakota...
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of
northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as
isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification
of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a
plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote a adequate
buoyancy few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm coverage is
limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for ascent). However,
strong shear across the region will likely promote organized
convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large
hail.
..Moore/Marsh.. 08/07/2026
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