Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...
CORRECTED FOR WIND LINES
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily
of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening
over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains. Isolated strong to locally
severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible from the
Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.
...Ozarks westward into the southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over
AZ/UT and a broad trough over the Upper Midwest favoring modest
west-northwesterly mid to high-level flow across the central Plains.
Several clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
from the mid MS Valley and lower MO Valley into the OK-KS border
region. Much of this activity is located to the north of a residual
front and outflow draped from the TX Panhandle east-northeast into
the mid MS Valley. South of the boundary, an appreciably moist
airmass, featuring 50s F dewpoints west to lower 70s east, will heat
in areas void of convection and related cloud debris. It is
uncertain how much influence morning showers/storms will have across
the Slight Risk area. Nonetheless, model forecast soundings show
moderate destabilization occurring by mid-late afternoon across much
of this region. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
preferentially develop near the effective front/outflow. Some storm
organization is possible with the main threat being isolated to
widely scattered severe gusts. Have adjusted the level 1 intensity
for wind to northern OK westward into the southern High Plains where
steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. A couple of multicell
clusters may eventually evolve during the early evening. A relative
minimum in storm activity may occur over parts of the TX Panhandle
in between storms over the northeast NM/western part of the TX
Panhandle and higher coverage of storms farther east over northern
OK into the Ozarks.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At
the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal
Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New
York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will
develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving
east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface
trough. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to
mid 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by
early afternoon (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the stronger
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of an isolated risk for wind
damage.
...Western Nebraska/southern South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South
Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model
forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will be weak,
any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could be
capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail.
..Smith/Bentley.. 08/06/2026
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