Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND IN THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from
late afternoon into mid evening in parts of southern Rockies and
southeast Arizona. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of
the western Carolinas.
...Southern Rockies...
A pocket of moderate instability will develop today across the
southern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm, convection will
initiate in the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos by
afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop and move east-southeastward
into the lower elevations of northeast New Mexico and southeast
Colorado. The instability combined with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates will support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
...Southeast Arizona...
An axis of moderate instability will develop this afternoon in
southeast Arizona. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range by late afternoon with thunderstorms developing near the
instability axis. The storms will move west-southwestward across
southeast Arizona from late afternoon into the early to mid evening.
The instability along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support isolated severe wind gusts.
...Western Carolinas...
A mid-level low will remain over northern Georgia today. To the east
of the low, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop
over the western Carolinas by afternoon. Warming surface
temperatures in the higher terrain will result in scattered
convective initiation across the southern Appalachians. As
instability peaks and low-level lapse rates become steep in the
afternoon, an isolated wind-damage threat is expected to develop in
the western Carolinas.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/04/2026
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