Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are possible across southeast Arizona
during the late afternoon and evening.
...Southeast Arizona...
A flattened mid to upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will
feature a moderate belt of easterlies across Sonora into far
southern portions of NM and AZ. A seasonably moist airmass will
undergo strong heating and result in moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) per RAP/NAM forecast soundings.
Initially widely scattered storm development over the higher terrain
will gradually move west across southeast AZ during the late
afternoon and evening. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (around 8 deg
C/km) atop very steep low-level lapse rates ahead of this activity
will support ample evaporative cooling potential with the stronger
thunderstorm cores. The resultant microbursts and associated
outflow will yield a risk for 60-80 mph gusts as storms congeal into
a small cluster or two.
...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent plains...
A local maximum in buoyancy is depicted by model guidance near the
Raton Mesa by mid-late afternoon where widely scattered storms will
likely develop. Some of the CAMs show this activity moving
southeast into parts of the OK-TX Panhandles during the early
evening with an isolated risk for severe gusts. Marginally severe
hail is possible with the stronger cores.
...Western Carolinas...
A mid-level low will remain over northern Georgia today. To the
east of the low, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop over the western Carolinas by afternoon. Warming surface
temperatures in the higher terrain will result in scattered
convective initiation across the southern Appalachians. As
instability peaks and low-level lapse rates become steep in the
afternoon, an isolated wind-damage threat is expected to develop in
the western Carolinas.
..Smith/Bentley.. 08/04/2026
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