Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this evening over parts of western and northern Minnesota.
Severe wind gusts are also expected in parts of southeastern
Arizona.
...Western and Northern Minnesota...
On water vapor imagery, west-southwesterly mid-level flow is present
over much of the north-central U.S., with a subtle shortwave trough
evident over northern Minnesota. At the surface, a cold front is
located over northwestern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints ahead of the
front range from 65 to 70 F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm
development across northwest Minnesota. In addition, a 60 to 70 knot
mid-level jet is moving over the top of this moist and unstable
airmass, and is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This will be
favorable for organized storms capable of producing severe wind
gusts and isolated large hail. The severe threat will be maximized
with supercells that develop.
...Central High Plains...
The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from
northeast Colorado northeastward into central Nebraska, along which
low-level convergence is maximized. This is supporting scattered
thunderstorm development. Just ahead of the front, an axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over central and
southwest Nebraska, where MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1000 to
2000 J/kg. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are steep
according to the RAP, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km over
parts of southwest Nebraska. This environment will contribute to
strong downdrafts capable of producing isolated severe gusts.
...Southeast Arizona...
A moderately unstable airmass is currently located across southeast
Arizona, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger
instability. These storms will move west-southwestward across the
remainder of southeastern Arizona over the next few hours. Steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe
wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 08/04/2026
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