Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic
Piedmont. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, although a tornado
could occur.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made with this update. The MRGL Risk was
expanded slightly eastward in portions of eastern SC, where an
ongoing cluster of thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts, given a very warm/moist downstream air mass.
Farther north, the MRGL Risk was expanded into parts of northern NJ
and northeast PA. Clouds breaks have supported modest
destabilization of a moist air mass, and high-resolution guidance
depicts thunderstorms moving into the area tonight -- focused along
a northward-moving warm front. Despite modest instability, enhanced
low-level flow/shear overspreading the region in tandem with the
warm front could support a couple loosely organized cells/clusters
with an accompanying risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and no changes
were needed.
..Weinman.. 08/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026/
...Eastern States...
Current satellite imagery shows a positively titled shortwave trough
extending from Lower MI southwestward into the Mid-South, while
recent surface analysis places a corridor of low pressure associated
with this shortwave from the Middle OH Valley into the Lower Great
Lakes. Several surface lows are embedded within this broader area of
low pressure, including a primary low over north-central OH/western
Lake Erie. A cold front extends southward from this low to the TN/NC
border vicinity before arcing back more southwestward through
central AL and southern MS.
This system (i.e. both the shortwave trough and associated cold
front) is forecast to gradually push eastward while weakening.
Airmass preceding this system is very moist, evidenced by upper
60s/low 70s dewpoints and PW values at or above 2 inches on the
regional 12Z soundings. Widespread cloud cover is in place, but
ample moisture has already resulted in airmass destabilization,
although the overall buoyancy will remain muted by poor lapse rates.
General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase
substantially over the next few hours, fostered by a combination of
low-level confluence and modest large-scale ascent.
Low to mid-level flow throughout the eastern periphery of the
shortwave trough is generally expected to be modest, ranging from
around 40 kt across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley/lower
Great Lakes vicinity to 20 kt across GA and SC. Consequently, a few
more organized storms are possible across portions of the Allegheny
Plateau, upper Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes, while a largely
disorganized multicellular mode is anticipated elsewhere.
Water-loaded downbursts are the primary risk, although low-level
shear/SRH in the presence of a moist boundary layer suggests a brief
tornado is possible where greater storm organization is
expected.
...North Dakota/northwest Minnesota...
Expansive upper ridging exists from southern CA/western AZ through
the Plains and into Manitoba and Ontario. A strong shortwave trough
is forecast to progress through Canadian Prairie Provinces within
the northern periphery of this ridging. A cold front associated with
this wave is expected to push eastward across the Dakotas,
interacting with a moistening airmass across the region. A
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon, but
most of the guidance keeps the airmass capped and free of deep
convection. Better potential for thunderstorm development is
expected overnight and into tomorrow morning as large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave combines with warm-air
advection to foster elevated thunderstorm development. Isolated
instances of hail and a strong gust or two are possible with these
storms.
...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Widely scattered thunderstorms should develop over the
mountains/higher terrain of the central/southern Arizona/New Mexico
border vicinity this afternoon. Moderate easterly/northeasterly
mid-level flow should favor southwestward motion into the lower
terrain of southeast Arizona. Modest buoyancy should allow for storm
persistence across southeast AZ, including the potential for
isolated strong to severe gusts.
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