Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic
Piedmont. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, although a tornado
could occur.
...Eastern States...
The large-scale positive-tilt upper trough will continue to drift
eastward regionally, with the leading edge of height falls generally
parallel to the Appalachians. Ahead of a cold front, early day cloud
cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be factors that tend to
limit overall boundary-layer destabilization.
Breaks in cloud cover into this afternoon will eventually allow for
widely scattered to scattered intensifying thunderstorm development
into mid/late afternoon. This may focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain in vicinity of the
lee troughing across the Piedmont.
With at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and potential for
heavy precipitation loading in the presence of seasonably high
moisture content, localized strong downbursts may generate a few
damaging surface gusts. A brief tornado threat may also exist across
parts of upper Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic given sufficient
low-level shear/SRH in the presence of a moist boundary layer.
...North Dakota/northwest Minnesota...
The extent and likelihood of sustained deep convective development
remain uncertain. Some guidance has suggested that there may be at
least attempts at deep convective development late this afternoon
near the weak pre-cold frontal surface troughing. However, the
potential for sustained thunderstorm activity remains unclear due to
limited low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels,
associated with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region
today. A somewhat better potential for thunderstorm development may
await increasing forcing for ascent with the approach of the
upstream shortwave trough later tonight. In either case, some risk
for hail and severe winds will exist pending development across the
region.
...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Residual cloud cover and widely scattered convection should clear
relatively early today, with renewed diurnal destabilization across
southeast Arizona and nearby southwest New Mexico. At least widely
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the mountains/higher
terrain of the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, with
southwestward storm persistence across southeast Arizona aided by
moderately strong northeasterly winds. A few instances of
severe-caliber wind gusts/blowing dust are possible this afternoon
through early evening.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/02/2026
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