Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe weather appears generally low across much of the
U.S. through tonight.
...01Z Update...
...Southeastern Arizona...
Instability along the higher terrain of east central Arizona into
adjacent west central/southwest New Mexico has been sufficient to
support weak to modest thunderstorm development. Despite weak, but
favorably oriented, northeasterly steering flow, storms have been
unable to propagate away from the higher terrain due to minimal
destabilization in lower elevations. This is largely due to rather
modest boundary layer moisture, including surface dew points
lowering to around 50 F with continuing daytime heating and mixing.
...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Downstream of a consolidating mid-level impulse across the lower
Great Lakes region, destabilization remains sufficient to maintain
scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Allegheny
Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region. Aided by
high boundary-layer moisture content and momentum associated with
30+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, it appears that the risk
for localized damaging wind gusts could linger into the 03-05Z time
frame before diminishing.
As the mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing
slowly shift eastward/northeastward, convection allowing output,
including HREF/REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance, suggest that
intensifying thunderstorm development is possible late tonight in
the warm sector across parts of eastern Pennsylvania toward the
lower Hudson Valley. Based on forecast soundings, given the high
boundary-layer moisture content, it does not appear out of the
question that wind profiles could become marginally sufficient for
isolated transient supercell structures with a risk for damaging
wind gusts and/or perhaps a tornado.
...Eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota...
Strengthening forcing for ascent, aided by lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, probably will support increasing potential for
thunderstorm development by late tonight. Based on forecast
soundings this will be generally elevated/high-based in nature, but
potential instability and cloud-bearing shear might be sufficient to
support some risk for small to marginally severe hail.
..Kerr.. 08/03/2026
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