Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible today across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies and from southeast Arizona
into southwest New Mexico.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southeastward across
the mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front
advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A
north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place ahead
of the front, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm this morning across the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop. Low-level convergence ahead of
the front and large-scale ascent associated with the trough will
result in scattered to widespread convective development this
afternoon. Thunderstorm intensification is expected to first take
place in the Ohio Valley in the early afternoon, with additional
more discrete cells developing southward into the Tennessee Valley.
By mid to late afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected
to organize and move eastward toward the southern Appalachians.
Along the axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range during the afternoon from eastern Tennessee
northward into far southeast Indiana. Near this axis, a low-level
speed max is forecast to develop with 850 mb winds speeds increasing
to around 30 knots. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to around 200 ms/s2. This should be enough for an isolated
tornado threat, mainly with supercells that remain discrete. The
tornado potential should be minimized in areas where too many storms
form. During the late afternoon, a transition to linear mode is
expected. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any line that can
become organized, with this potential persisting into the early
evening.
...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be in place from west Texas northward into eastern New
Mexico, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 50s to the mid
60s F. Along and near this axis, moderate instability is expected to
develop by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures in the higher
terrain will aid convective initiation, with storms forming and
moving south-southeastward into the lower elevation of eastern New
Mexico. The storms will eventually reach parts of west Texas during
the evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will
likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.
...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
An axis of low-level moisture and instability will be in place today
across far southeastern Arizona. Along and near this axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, low to
mid-level lapse rates will be very steep as temperatures heat up
this afternoon. Storms that form within the stronger instability
could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 08/01/2026
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