Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the southern High Plains, New Mexico, and
southeast Arizona.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A positive-tilt mid-level trough will drift east-southeastward from
the middle Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley through
tonight. A surface low will similarly develop eastward across
Illinois/Indiana, with some uncertainty regarding the northward
effective extent of a narrow warm sector owing to cyclone occlusion
and residual early day convection and cloud cover.
The moist air mass should moderately destabilize across the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon ahead of the front, with more
modest/uncertain destabilization progressively northward into and
across Indiana/western Ohio. Scattered clusters of storms are
expected to develop initially across Indiana/Kentucky this
afternoon, and a bit later southward into Tennessee/Alabama.
The strongest effective shear, upwards of 35 kt, is generally
expected across Kentucky into Indiana/Ohio, although a
low-to-mid-tropospheric flow weakness will tend to persist.
Deep-layer winds will tend to be stronger overall across the
Tennessee Valley, but a near-surface westerly flow component will
reduce effective shear (20-25 kt). Damaging winds are the most
probable risk regionally as storms intensify this afternoon.
However, pending adequate destabilization, a tornado risk may exist
for a time near the surface low/triple point vicinity across Indiana
and northern/east-central Kentucky.
...Southern High Plains...
Moderate diurnal destabilization is expected coincident with a
reservoir of 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints regionally. This will
be beneath relatively strong northerly winds aloft, which will aid
storm organization/clustering to a degree as storms spread
south-southeastward later today, reaching parts of west Texas this
evening. MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around
30 kt, combined with steep low-level lapse rates, will likely be
sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.
...Southwest/central New Mexico and southeast Arizona...
Another round of thunderstorms are expected regionally beginning
around mid-afternoon, and increasing through late afternoon and
early evening. These storms will be influenced by a moist
environment/orographic lift, as well as a upper ridge-peripheral
belt of enhanced northerly winds, particularly across New Mexico.
Some of the storms may produce isolated severe-caliber wind gusts
through early evening.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/01/2026
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