Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible this evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible over the southern High Plains.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level
trough over the upper Mississippi Valley with westerly divergent
flow aloft over the Ozarks. At the surface, a 1003 mb low is located
over eastern Iowa with a cold front extending south-southwestward
across central and southwest Missouri. Ahead of the front, low-level
convergence and moisture is maximized. Surface dewpoints within this
zone are in the 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range. Strong thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the
instability axis over much of eastern Missouri. The storms will
continue to move eastward toward the Mississippi River this evening
and will eventually cross into southern Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings across south-central Missouri early this
evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225 m2/s2 range. This will
support an isolated tornado threat with supercells. A tornado or two
will be possible over the next couple of hours with cells that
remain discrete. A gradual transition to linear mode is expected
toward mid evening. The line that is currently to the west of St.
Louis is expected to grow upscale, developing southward with time.
The line will eventually reach southern Illinois and northeast
Arkansas. A wind-damage threat will be possible along the more
intense parts of this line segment.
...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow is northwesterly over much of the southern Plains. At
the surface, a cold front is located from eastern New Mexico into
northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along a narrow corridor of 60+ F surface dewpoints just to
the south of the front. Within this corridor, the RAP shows moderate
instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Forecast
soundings early this evening along the instability axis have 0-6 km
shear around 25 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km
range. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads to the south of the
front exceed 30 degrees F in some areas. The instability along with
the steep lapse rates will support a threat for severe wind gusts
for a couple more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/01/2026
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