Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains and
from North Carolina into southern Virginia.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, heights will fall today across much of the
north-central U.S. as a subtle shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward into the central Plains and mid Missouri
Valley by afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along this
west-southwest to east-northeast corridor. Low-level convergence
will be maximized along and near the front, which will be the
primary focus for convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms
will form in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across the
instability corridor, with convective development continuing through
much of the evening. The instability, combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, will support a
threat for severe wind gusts. The potential for severe wind will be
greatest with any line segment that can become sustained and
organized. Although there is some uncertainty concerning where the
greatest threat will be, it seems possible that a damaging wind
swath could occur in parts of southern Nebraska this evening, where
a 30 percent wind probability has been added.
Further northeast into central Iowa and south-central Wisconsin,
convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced.
However, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a severe threat as
low-level lapse rates and instability become maximized late this
afternoon. The primary threat will be for severe wind gusts, with
the threat being associated with short intense line segments.
...Northern High Plains...
At the surface, a lee trough will develop today from eastern Wyoming
into eastern Montana. Along and near the trough, surface dewpoints
in the 50s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak, low-level convergence near the trough will aid
convective initiation. Thunderstorms will also develop in the higher
terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations. The
instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will likely support a potential for
isolated severe gusts.
...North Carolina/Southern Virginia.
At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place today from the
Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong
instability across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of
the Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 07/08/2026
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