Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts potentially above 75 mph, and
isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains
and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening into the early
overnight period.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move eastward across
the northern Plains this evening. At the surface, a low will move
eastward into eastern South Dakota as a cold front advances
southward across central and southern South Dakota. The front will
provide a focus for convective development this evening, although
scattered storms are also expected across parts of the post-frontal
airmass. Surface dewpoints over most of South Dakota are in the 60s
F, with lower to mid 70s F over south-central Minnesota. Along and
near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 2500 J/kg near
Rapid City to just above 3500 J/kg in far eastern South Dakota.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong to
severe storms will develop near the instability axis early this
evening and grow upscale, tracking eastward across eastern South
Dakota into south-central Minnesota. Within this corridor, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for a
severe threat...see MCD 1536. Any short line segment that can become
organized will likely be capable of severe wind gusts and hail.
There will be potential for wind gusts above 75 mph with any line
segment that can become robust.
Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, an axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from near Rapid City
northwestward into southeastern Montana. A cluster of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop this evening and move
southeastward along this axis of instability. Moderate deep-layer
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells
capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. As convective
coverage increases, a potential for severe wind gusts is also
expected with any short line segment that can become intense...see
MCD 1535.
..Broyles.. 07/08/2026
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