Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.
...Central High Plains across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a cold front extending
southwestward from north-central MN to a low southeast SD, where the
front then becomes oriented more westerly across southern SD before
arcing back northwestward across northeast WY and central MT. This
front is expected to make gradual southward/southeastward progress
today, before becoming more diffuse under the influence of storm
outflow late in the period. Ample low-level moisture will be place
ahead of this front by the late afternoon, with dewpoints likely
ranging from the low/mid 60s across central NE into the upper
60s/low 70s across northern IA, southern MN, and northern WI. The
strongest buoyancy is expected from eastern NE into
western/northwestern IA, where the best overlap between the higher
surface dewpoints and the eastern extent of the steep mid-level
lapse rates exists.
Thunderstorm development is expected first from the
eastern/northeastern IA into the Upper Midwest, where convergence
along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to
an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. A few stronger
updrafts are possible in this region, but more modest buoyancy
should limit updraft persistence, with a quick trend towards a more
outflow-dominant storm mode. Stronger buoyancy will support more
robust updrafts from central IA western into central NE, although
modest deep-layer vertical shear should limit organization in this
area as well. Stronger updrafts could contribute to stronger
downdrafts, as well as isolated hail, with a slightly higher overall
severe potential here than areas farther northeast.
A somewhat separate regime is anticipated farther west across the
central High Plains. Here, moist, post-frontal, upslope flow will
result in moderate buoyancy across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY,
supporting airmass destabilization and late afternoon thunderstorm
development. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear, resulting
from easterly low-level flow beneath moderate northwesterly flow
aloft, is anticipated over this region as well. An initially
cellular mode is likely, with some large hail possible, with fairly
quick upscale growth likely. High cloud bases atop a warm and deeply
mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow, which, when
combined with the strong deep-layer shear, could result in one or
more organized bowing segments.
These two regimes come together across south-central
NE/north-central KS overnight, amid a strengthen low-level jet, but
predictability on the overall convective evolution is limited.
Seemingly some severe potential could linger across
south-central/southeast NE into north-central/northeast KS
overnight.
...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the
northern periphery of the upper ridging in place over the Four
Corners vicinity. Mid-level moisture associated with this wave
coupled with strong heating will result in airmass destabilization
and the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.
High storm bases atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for damaging gusts with the stronger storms.
...North Carolina/Southern Virginia..
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability
across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the
Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.
...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon.
Westward drift of the upper ridge will result in modest easterly
mid-level flow over the region, with some potential for the
thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during
the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible but uncertainty
regarding coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this
outlook.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/08/2026
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