Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.
...Front Range Into Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low
deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of
maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front
Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are
expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of
the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late
afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early
evening.
RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km.
This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms
that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern
Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado
threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains,
organization into a line is expected. This will increase the
potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will
be possible.
...Great Plains...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly
from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket
of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas.
From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that
low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon
over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is
expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong
instability during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE
near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also
support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the
strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with
the more intense rotating cells.
...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern
Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates
steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be
possible.
...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S.
today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains.
Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana
tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the
surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm
development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North
Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be
sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z
Tuesday morning.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TSwqH3
