Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A line of severe thunderstorms with wind gusts potentially above 75
mph is expected over the northern High Plains this evening, with
large to very large hail and an isolated tornado threat also
possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are also
possible in the Ozarks.
...Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels, an upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
northern Rockies. Further east, a lead shortwave trough is evident
on water vapor imagery over the northern High Plains. At the
surface, a 994 mb low is located in northwestern North Dakota with a
surface trough extending southward into northwestern South Dakota. A
cold front is in far western North Dakota. To the east of the front,
surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F, and
moderate instability is in place. Numerous thunderstorms have
recently developed to the west of the instability axis, and these
storms are expected to organize into an intense line segment over
the next couple of hours.
RAP forecast soundings in western North Dakota ahead of the storms
have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 55 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb
lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. In addition, surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 25 degrees F over much area.
This environment will be very favorable for severe wind gusts. The
greatest potential for severe gusts will be from far northwest South
Dakota northeastward into much of western and north-central North
Dakota. Along this corridor, a nearly continuous bowing line is
expected to organize. Severe wind gusts above 75 mph will be
possible with the more intense segments. In addition to the
wind-damage threat, large to very large hail will be possible over
the next couple hours with storms that obtain supercell structure. A
tornado or two could also occur.
...Ozarks...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S.
this evening. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is
in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered strong thunderstorms are
ongoing along an axis of moderate instability over the Ozarks of
southern and central Missouri, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Ahead of the mid-level trough, low-level flow is
forecast to become maximized in the Ozarks over the next couple of
hours. Forecast soundings near Springfield, Missouri by 03Z have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 180 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 06/08/2026
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