Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper
Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.
...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across
north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the
north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be
prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may
increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm
front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion
1379.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including
recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across
Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward
into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will
support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample
deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,
especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress
into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.
...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be
possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with
some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly
stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TTGngh
