Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind
gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest
Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are
possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a
couple of tornadoes may also occur.
...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a
negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A
surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward
into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across
much of MN.
Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue
to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas
this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance
(i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing
the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today.
Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely
intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale
corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast
details.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region.
Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity.
Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop
farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting
through the evening.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores.
..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026
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