Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region.
...Carolinas/Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic States...
Multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest, within the
base of the broad upper trough centered over Canada/Great Lakes,
will progress east-northeastward with steady height falls and
strengthening flow aloft particularly for the Mid-Atlantic region
and Delmarva. Prevalent showers/some thunderstorms early today will
accompany an east/southeastward-moving cold front, but cloud breaks
should allow for pre-frontal heating particularly across the coastal
plain over the Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.
A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic
shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon,
a line of storms should develop and intensify along the cold front.
Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support linearly
organizing clusters/bands of storms, with a few damaging wind gusts
possible during the afternoon.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will be rather limited, thermodynamic
profiles may be sufficiently supportive of a few lightning flashes
late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin in vicinity of a
southeastward-spreading front. Gusty winds may also occur with this
convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and
strengthening northwesterly winds aloft.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/05/2026
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