Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
region.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging
builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will
support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore
over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to
the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level
moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential
ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will
be strongest.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from
central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer
mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F
surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As
the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of
storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall
line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TRtCMP
