Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026
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