Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of damaging gusts remain possible across the northern
Appalachians this evening, and an instance or two of hail/wind may
accompany one of the stronger storms in Deep South Texas.
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough continues to progress eastward over
the Great Lakes, with surface lee troughing prevalent over the
Appalachians and points east. A cold front continues to sweep
eastward across the OH/TN Valleys into southern TX, preceded by
enough buoyancy to support mainly general thunderstorms. A couple of
stronger thunderstorms may still occur over the northern
Appalachians and far southern TX.
...PA into the southern Great Lakes...
Ahead of the surface cold front, scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place per regional 00Z observed soundings.
Most of the CAPE is constrained in the 850-600 mb layer, which may
support a few strong low topped cells within bands of convection,
aided by strong low-level shear, as shown by the soundings. 0-3 km
SRH remains in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. As such, while the severe
threat is expected to remain sparse at best given poor buoyancy, the
strong low-level shear suggests that an additional damaging gust
cannot be completely ruled out.
...Deep-South Texas...
Multicells continue to propagate southward ahead of a cold front,
where ample buoyancy remains in place. While vertical wind shear is
poor, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates (per the 00Z BRO observed sounding), indicates
the potential for a sparse severe hail/gust instance before storms
dissipate in the next few hours.
..Squitieri.. 04/05/2026
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