Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of
southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.
...Texas...
Strong westerly mid-flow will be maintained across the southern
Plains into the Southeast today, as a mid/upper-level low currently
off the coast of Baja California quickly moves eastward through the
period. A surface front is currently stalled across parts of south
TX, and most of the thunderstorms forecast to develop across TX
through tonight are expected to remain elevated. Ascent preceding
the shortwave trough should eventually encourage convection to
develop near the TX Big Bend late this evening, and spread eastward
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally damaging winds may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated. Overall
confidence in coverage of severe convection remains too low to
include greater severe hail probabilities and a Slight Risk with
this update.
...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.
...Coastal South Carolina...
Thunderstorms capable of producing occasional strong/gusty winds
should move offshore within the next hour or two. The overall severe
wind threat appears too limited to include 5% probabilities.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/30/2026
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