Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening
into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.
...Southwest and South-central Texas...
At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon
into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward
across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will
increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting
scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into
south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a
quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening
forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large
hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026
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