Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of
southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight
changes made to ongoing probabilities to account for the latest
guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 04/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
...Texas...
A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late
this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and
southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level
flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface
analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX
eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud
cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite
a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across
northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A
couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early
afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD
#627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms
developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional
activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated.
...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.
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