Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST
VIRGINIA...AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into
the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western
Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will sweep across the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes today, while a surface low pivots northeast
from the Great Lakes into Quebec. A cold front will extend
southwestward from the low, extending from northwest OH into
southeast TX by 00Z. To the east, a warm front will lift north
across VA and into western NY and PA during the day.
Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend from
TX into IN and OH, with mid to upper 60s F across the lower MS
Valley and 70 F dewpoints near the Gulf Coast. East of the
Appalachians, lower 60s F dewpoints will develop northward as far
north as VA, MD and DE. Shear will be maximized from the Ohio Valley
into the northeast in association with the upper trough, with the
greatest relative severe potential there.
...OH Valley into western NY/PA/WV...
Height falls will occur during the day across the region, with
increasing wind speeds and shear. Daytime heating and southwest
surface winds will lead to sufficient instability to support
afternoon severe storms from parts of the OH Valley northeastward
into western NY/PA. Here, lift and low-level shear will be
accentuated along the warm front, possibly supporting a few
supercells with attendant tornado risk just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, 40-50 kt mean wind speeds just off the surface, in
combination with linear forcing along the advancing front will favor
wind damage.
...TX into the Lower MS Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of
the cold front as it plunges south through the period. Given mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front, substantial elevated
instability will remain well north of the boundary as well as ahead
of it. Sufficient mid to high level shear may aid hail production
with cells even as they are undercut. Otherwise, any convection
forming ahead of the front may also produce strong wind gusts, aided
by modest southwest winds in the lower few km.
..Jewell/Moore.. 03/07/2026
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