Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes appear
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.
...Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to advance eastward today
across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley though the period.
The primary surface low is forecast to develop northeastward into
Ontario and Quebec through the day, while a trailing cold front
moves quickly east-southeastward across the OH Valley and eventually
PA/NY. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across
central/eastern OH, and strong low-level warm moist advection
associated with a 40-50+ kt low-level jet will aid in a gradual
increase in low-level moisture ahead of ongoing convection across
KY/southern IL into IN. While MLCAPE should only peak around
500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front by early afternoon, strong flow at
low/mid-levels will aid thunderstorm clusters in producing scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly eastward across the upper
OH Valley later today. The potential for a few line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes is also apparent given sufficient low-level
shear. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it
moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a
much less unstable airmass.
...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
Extensive convection is ongoing this morning along/near a
southeastward-moving cold front. Isolated damaging winds will remain
possible this morning where short line segments/bows can stay ahead
of the surging front. Current expectations are for an uptick in
thunderstorm intensity to occur this afternoon as activity spreads
southeastward into a gradually destabilizing airmass across the
lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Scattered damaging winds along
consolidating outflows should be the main threat for most areas this
afternoon through early evening as low-level lapse rates steepen.
But, some potential for supercells remains apparent across parts of
TX, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear will
support the potential for large hail. Even with the primary upper
trough remaining to the north, some enhancement to the low-level
winds persists, which may support a brief tornado threat in the
short term. See Mesoscale Discussion 164 for more details on the
near-term severe threat across AR and vicinity.
..Gleason/Dean.. 03/07/2026
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