Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
TEXAS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through
tonight from northern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks and
Lower Ohio Valley.
...Discussion...
Scattered storms persist this evening from north-central TX across
eastern OK, with a few from the AR/MO border into southern IN. This
is occurring along a stationary front, with the strongest
instability over TX. The 00Z FWD sounding shows steep lapse rates
through the entire profile, but with a somewhat jumbled wind profile
depicting veer/back/veer/back with height. Still, cool temperatures
aloft and effective shear over 30 kt should continue to support
periodic hail cores or localized downbursts this evening. Farther
north, storms are a bit more disorganized along the boundary, with a
bit weaker instability but also stronger deep-layer shear in closer
proximity to the upper wave.
As the shortwave trough moves from the central Plains toward the mid
MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent near the stationary front will
increase from the Ozarks into the mid MS/lower OH Valley after about
06Z. Height falls will skirt the surface boundary, with increasing
850 mb winds out of the southwest, perhaps to 50 kt over northern
AR/southern MO. Given an increase in lift and shear, corridors of
severe weather are still anticipated, with all hazards possible.
Damaging gusts or a tornado are most probable near the boundary
where low-level shear and lift will be enhanced.
For more information see mesoscale discussions #0134 and #0135.
..Jewell.. 03/05/2026
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