Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the
Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large
hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the Great Basin and toward the
Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft spreading over the
Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern CO
during the day, and will move into KS through Friday morning. A
stationary front extending from northwest TX into southern MO will
become a warm front as southerly surface winds increase throughout
the period. Low 60s F dewpoints will move across OK and into the
eastern TX Panhandle during the day, and along I-35 into KS
overnight. Moderate instability is expected to develop from western
TX into OK and southern KS, with increasing shear profiles late in
the day. This will likely lead to a compact area of severe storms,
particularly from the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western OK late
in the day and into the evening.
...TX Panhandle/northwest TX into western OK and southern KS...
Moisture and instability will gradually build during the day as the
warm front pushes through during the afternoon. There is some
concern about the degree of capping, especially across eastern
areas. However, it appears heating will be sufficient to instigate a
few supercells, developing by late afternoon across the eastern TX
Panhandle and perhaps portions of the South Plains or northwest TX.
Steep lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height will
clearly support supercell mode initially, with very large hail and
tornado potential. These cells, or a developing cluster, will likely
continue into the evening across much of western OK and perhaps
toward southern KS by late evening. By that time, shear will be
quite strong, and may support significant bowing structures.
...Northern KS...NE...IA...
After dry conditions for much of the day, thunderstorms will develop
overnight as low-level theta-e rapidly spreads north due to a 60 kt
low-level jet. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE
developing after 03Z, north of a warm front. Deep-layer shear within
the cloud-bearing layer also appears favorable for sustained cells,
and a few storms could produce hail.
...Western FL Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s
F. Despite the upper high, midlevel temperatures will be relatively
cool. Scattered storms appear probable along the western Peninsula
during the afternoon where convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though severe storms are not
currently forecast.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/05/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TRJW2B
