Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today and
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
A compact mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor
satellite imagery this morning over the central High Plains will
move eastward towards the Mid MS Valley by tonight. As this occurs,
a narrow swath of around 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will
overspread parts of the southern Plains to lower OH Valley.
Large-scale ascent should remain modest with this system, resulting
in only a weak surface low developing northeastward along a
quasi-stationary surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of
the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing
into generally the low to mid 60s. This increasing moisture beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should
support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow
corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability
should develop across north-central into central TX where stronger
daytime heating is expected.
Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest in closer proximity to
the mid-level jet and surface front from eastern OK into AR,
southern MO, and the lower OH Valley. Effective bulk shear of 35-50
kt will easily support organized convection across these areas.
However, convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad
ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the
surface front. Additionally, ongoing elevated convection this
morning across the northern OK/southeast KS vicinity and related
cloudiness may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization
downstream. Farther south into north/central TX, weaker deep-layer
shear may limit updraft organization to some extent.
Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists today and tonight. An
isolated hail threat should persist with ongoing elevated convection
this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into MO and
southern IL. By this afternoon, surface-based thunderstorm
development should occur closer to the surface front. A mix of
supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging
winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates
can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not
forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km
SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any
sustained supercells/clusters near the surface boundary.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/04/2026
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