Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.
...Southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...
A compact upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the
central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley today and tonight. As this
occurs, a swath of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the southern Plains to the OH Valley. Height
falls will remain modest with this system, resulting in on a weak
surface wave migrating northeast along a quasi-stationary baroclinic
zone/surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of the front,
southerly return flow will support dewpoints climbing into the low
60s F. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around
7-8 C/km will foster MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg
(possibly higher toward North TX where stronger heating is
expecting).
Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized
convection. However, storm mode may tend to be somewhat messy given
broad ascent within the warm advection regime near the surface
boundary. Additionally, morning convection and cloudiness could
hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization. Nevertheless, a
broad area of severe storm potential exists. First with elevated
convection this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into
MO and southern IL. By afternoon, surface-based convection will be
more likely closer to the surface front. A mix of supercells and
clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Where stronger heating
occurs, some wind damaging potential will also materialize within
steepened low-level lapse rates. A low-end tornado risk will also
accompany supercells near the surface boundary, especially where
stronger heating can occur.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 03/04/2026
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