Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the forecast were to adjust severe/thunder
probabilities in the Upper Midwest given the progression of the cold
front and impacts of earlier convection. The remainder of the
forecast remains on track. See MD 308/309 for additional short-term
mesoscale details.
..Wendt.. 03/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/
...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.
...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.
...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.
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