Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected this evening from the Midwest into the central
Appalachians. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts are also possible across western Oklahoma and far
northwest Texas.
...Midwest/Central Appalachians/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level zonal flow pattern over the
north-central and northeastern U.S., with a low-amplitude trough
located in the western Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are ongoing near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot low-level
jet from northern Indiana northeastward into the central
Appalachians. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings have
SBCAPE mostly in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 35
to 45 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will be
favorable for multicell line segments capable of producing severe
wind gusts this evening. A few supercells with isolated large hail
and a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. As cells
continue to increase in coverage this evening, the development of a
larger-scale multicell line segment may occur. If this happens, then
the wind-damage threat could increase into the mid to late
evening...see MCD 314.
Further southwest into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley,
scattered thunderstorms are developing near an axis of instability
where SBCAPE is around 1000 J/kg, according to the RAP. This area is
further away from the mid-level jet in the Great Lakes. For this
reason, lift and deep-layer shear are somewhat weaker in the mid
Mississippi Valley suggesting that any severe threat will remain
marginal this evening.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
western Kansas and western Oklahoma. At the surface, a cold front is
located from southeast Kansas extending southwestward into west
Texas. A broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing near the
front from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas. The nearest
forecast sounding is at Childress, which has MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and a 850-500 mb lapse rate near 8
C/km. This should be favorable for an isolated large hail and
wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to persist for a couple
more hours.
..Broyles.. 04/01/2026
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