Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.
...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this morning is being
aided by low-level warm advection, and is expected to remain
sub-severe as it tracks eastward into a less unstable airmass. A
belt of 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will be maintained
today across parts of the southern/central Plains as a shortwave
trough ejects eastward over this region though the period. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening as
low-level moisture streams northward across TX/OK into the Ozarks
and southern IL. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the
southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the
surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to be
suppressed across the southern/central Plains through much of the
afternoon into early evening owing to the presence of a stout
low-level inversion. One exception may be near the front/dryline
intersection in southwest to central OK, where MLCIN should become
minimal by peak afternoon heating. Here, some guidance suggests a
low chance for a robust thunderstorm or two to develop and track
northeastward along/near the I-44 corridor while posing an isolated
hail threat. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly southward
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, gradually increasing
large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough and strengthening
low-level warm/moist advection should encourage the development of
elevated thunderstorms north of the front, mainly after 04/06Z.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/03/2026
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