Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.
...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight. A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley. A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.
Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging. The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon. Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours. As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor). Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/03/2026
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