Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri.
...Southern Plains/Central MO...
Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to
eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max
translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will
progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the
surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful
cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the
synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the
overnight hours.
Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into
the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be
breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However,
forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the
dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating
will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based.
Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the
day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much
colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings
suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely
during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the
strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a
corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms
may generate severe hail.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026
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